000
FXUS61 KOKX 041655
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today will weaken and drift to the
west as weak low pressure develops east of New England. The low
will move east and meander around northern New England and the
Canadian Maritimes this week. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will
approach and pass through on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track into this afternoon with clouds
beginning to increase in coverage again, especially for eastern
portions of the area. A light rain shower or a few sprinkles are
possible for easternmost areas as well through this afternoon.
As the high shifts west, the offshore low starts to develop,
and as a closed low along the E New England coast drifts S,
expect cloud coverage to increase from E to W especially this
afternoon, with a few showers also possible over parts of S CT
and Long Island. High temps today in the cool air mass should be
similar to those of yesterday, with lower 70s possible W of
NYC, 60s most elsewhere, and upper 50s across SE CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As surface low pressure remains off the New England coast
tonight, still expect isold to widely sct showers across ern
Long Island and SE CT, with skies remaining mostly cloudy
especially E of NYC. The low should move far enough E on Mon to
take any associated light precip with it, but low clouds should
hang tough as low level cyclonic flow continues, with a mid
level shortwave trough also passing through Mon evening.
An upper trough currently over N Quebec should dive S toward
the area early this week and approach on Tue. The trough and an
associated weak sfc cold front should provide enough lift in a
conditionally unstable air mass for mainly afternoon showers
and tstms. Instability (SBCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg) along with
steep low level lapse rates and dry sub-cloud air per fcst
soundings look marginally supportive of a few pulse storms with
sub-severe gusty winds and small hail. Today`s CSU-MLP Day 3
forecast from the 00Z cycle forecasts a more bullish marginal
severe risk for the entire CWA which is a bit more bullish, but
deep layer shear in NW flow aloft looks too meager attm.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will be characterized by an omega block, with
stacked low pressure over New England and the Canadian Maritimes
and an upper level low over southern California, and a high
amplitude ridge over the center of the country.
Forecast certainty has increased towards the end of the
forecast period with deterministic models keeping the upper low
over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes through the
end of next week, then finally drifting east late Friday into
Saturday as the upper level pattern breaks down with the
approach of a cold front over south central Canada. However this
front should remain well to the north and west even into
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain west of the area through the TAF
period. Meanwhile low pressure will slowly develop off the New
England coast into early next week.
Expect a mainly VFR forecast during this time with MVFR ceilings
mainly confined to KGON due to the close proximity of deepening
offshore low pressure.
N winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt by mid to
late morning. Winds will then veer more to the NNE-NE this
afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish this evening but may
persist at KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent today. Timing of
winds veering to the NNE-NE this afternoon may vary by 1 to 2
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR at KGON in the morning with a
slight chance of showers.
Tuesday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR, a chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters attm, with N wind
gusting to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. These cond should subside for
the most part by this afternoon, then as low pressure develops E
of New England the pressure gradient should tighten up enough to
allow for a return of 25-kt gusts tonight on the ocean E of
Moriches Inlet, possibly lasting into Mon AM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement is in effect for tonight`s high cycle for
Lower NY Harbor, south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau,
southern Westchester, and southern Fairfield.
The coastal flooding does not look to be as widespread for tonight`s
high tide cycle. A more northerly flow today should result in water
levels coming down with tidal departures closer to 1/2 to 1 ft above
normal and about 1 1/2 ft at Freeport. This will keep waters
levels right around minor coastal flood benchmarks at the time
of high tide tonight. Any flooding at this time looks to be
brief and minor.
A deepening offshore low east of New England tonight into Monday
will produce an easterly swell in addition to Ekman transport with a
prolonged northerly flow offshore. Guidance is suggesting waters
levels could be a bit higher for Monday night.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...