000
FXUS61 KOKX 051447
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure east of New England lifts up into the
Canadian Maritimes by tonight, where it will remain nearly
stationary through the week. The low will drag a cold front
across southeast Canada today and then across the area on
Tuesday. A surface trough will follow for Wednesday. Weak high
pressure builds in for Saturday. A cold front approaches late
Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with only minor adjustments to temperatures
and dew points to reflect the latest observations and trends
into the afternoon.
A highly anomalous blocking pattern (Omega Block) across North
America will feature a cutoff low off the New England coast and
a high amplitude ridge across central Canada. This will allow
for deepening low pressure east of New England to lift slowly
north into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight, where it will
become nearly stationary for the remainder of the week.
Cloud associated with the low will gradually work east this
morning with some sun expected across NYC and points north and
west. However, clouds will be more plentiful to the east,
especially across eastern LI and SE CT. A brief shower is
also possible across New London County CT today. Deep cyclonic
flow and steep lapse rates will allow for some of the clouds to
fill back in across western areas this afternoon. NW winds this
afternoon will gusts up to 20 mph.
High today will be close to seasonable levels in the 70s,
nearing 80 in metro NJ. Far eastern areas will be the coolest
due to the cloud cover with highs around 70.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low and deepening surface low become
nearly stationary tonight in the vicinity of Nova Scotia and New
Brunswick. This will aid a cold front dropping out of southeast
Canada to approach from the NW tonight and work across the
forecast area Tuesday afternoon. In addition, a shortwave
trough drops down the backside of the trough and across the
areas as well on Tuesday. This will result in a good chance for
showers, possibly a thunderstorm. While low-level lapse rates
will be around 7C, instability is marginal and moisture is
limited. So there is some uncertainty on the coverage of the
showers at this time. SPC has placed the area under a general
thunderstorm threat.
Additionally, the RAP and HRRR smoke model fields once again
begin to bring wildfire smoke into the region tonight and
Tuesday. The smoke does lower per the guidance for Tuesday, but
with deep mixing and a cold front moving through the area,
visibilities are not expected to be an issue at this time. Haze
aloft and the smell of smoke are good possibilities.
Temperatures remain nearly seasonable tonight in the lower 50s
inland, to around 60 across the NYC metro. For Tuesday, ahead
of the cold front, it looks to be slightly warmer with most
locations in the mid to upper 70s, but around 80 for the NYC
metro.
Any lingering showers and/or thunderstorms exit eastern areas
of LI and CT early Tuesday evening.
Another piece of energy drops across the area Wednesday
afternoon with slight chance of showers. Airmass is drier and
even more stable.
Highs Wednesday cool down a bit, but still right around normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An omega block will continue to dominate the large scale pattern
over the CONUS, its eastern leg being a Canadian Maritimes closed
low. Disturbances pinwheeling around the upper low will bring
chances for afternoon and late day showers mainly inland, possibly
also a tstm on Thursday. Temps during the period should run a few
degrees below avg.
The pattern will start to become more progressive this weekend, with
the pesky Maritimes upper low opening up into a trough and pulling
away to the east. Locally this will allow heights to rise aloft and
an associated warming trend to take place this weekend, with temps
returning to near the seasonal avg for Sat, and a few degrees above
that for NYC metro and the interior on Sunday. An approaching cold
front may bring showers and possibly a tstm inland late day Sunday,
with a better chance for showers Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains over the region today with a trough
of low pressure shifting through during this evening.
VFR. NNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 17-20 kt today. Sea
breezes anticipated for KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP late afternoon.
Light NW winds overnight, then backing slightly and increasing
for the afternoon with gusts around 20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional. Sea breeze at KJFK might not
occur.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR cond with any afternoon and
evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. NW winds G20kt in
the afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and
early evening showers each day, mainly N of the NYC metros.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions will be on tap to start the week with NW
winds on the backside of low pressure thats becomes nearly
stationary over the Canadian maritimes. Winds and waves are
forecast to remain below SCA levels through Friday as the low
begins to gradually weaken the second half of the week with the
pressure gradient continuing to weaken.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A deepening offshore low east of New England today will produce
an easterly swell in addition to Ekman transport with a
prolonged northerly flow offshore. Guidance is suggesting water
levels tonight should be higher than recent high tide cycles,
and water levels at Freeport are likely to go into moderate
flood. Advisories/statements issued for the affected south
shore of western Long Island/NY Harbor/western Sound areas.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...