000
FXUS61 KOKX 052103
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
503 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes remains nearly
stationary through midweek and sends a cold front through the area
on Tuesday. Low pressure near Nova Scotia Wednesday will
gradually weaken through Thursday. The weak low will then
remain near the Canadian Maritimes and along the northeast coast
Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Saturday and moves
offshore Sunday as a cold front approaches. The front moves
through the region late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
An upper level trough over the Northeast supports the deepening of a
surface low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes through
tonight and into the middle of the week. A wave of energy embedded
in the trough dives south into Western New York tonight and into
early Tuesday.
While much of the area remains dry tonight, a few isolated showers
will remain possible for New London County in CT and the tip of the
Twin Forks of Long Island. Otherwise, much of the area remains
fairly quiet with clearer skies for western areas and more overcast
skies for the east. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with the warmest
locations at the coast and near NYC.
Wildfires in Quebec are producing a significant amount of smoke that
will make its way over the area tonight and into the day on Tuesday.
While much of the smoke should be above the surface, there will
likely be noticeably hazy skies on Tuesday with a low chance of some
patchy smoke near the surface, as indicated by the HRRR smoke model
fields.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level energy rotating around the base of the trough and on the
west side of the meandering low pressure will result in a cold
frontal passage into the day on Tuesday. With partly cloudy skies in
place for much of the area, there should be sufficient surface
heating and low level mixing to create some instability ahead of the
mid-level energy moving through. This may result in the development
of some showers and thunderstorms. While showers may be in the area
during the morning, the best chance for thunderstorms wont be until
the late morning and into the afternoon. The best chance of any
showers or thunderstorms will be for northern areas, mainly the
Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Highs will be back to
near average with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s for most.
The NYC metro and NE NJ may rise into the lower 80s.
Any showers or storms diminish by evening with improving conditions
and clearing skies. Some cloud cover may work its way back in for
northeastern areas. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50 inland
and in the middle to upper 50s along the coast.
Air Quality Alerts are in effect for NY and CT for Tuesday for fine
particulate matter caused by the smoke from the Canadian
wildfires.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Omega blocking will persist Wednesday into Saturday as a large
closed upper low remains over the northeast and into eastern Canada.
The low weakens Saturday and drifts northeast as additional energy
rotates into the upper trough. That low deepens and becomes closed
off Sunday and remains into Monday. Overall, the extended period
will be unsettled except for a brief dry period late Saturday into
Sunday as weak ridging builds into the northeast. Temperatures will
be generally just below seasonal normal levels, except for Sunday
with the ridge and dry weather.
There is a chance of showers Wednesday into Saturday with a slight
chance of thunderstorms inland late Thursday and Friday where there
will be better instability and forcing. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front Sunday and Monday.
Generally followed the NBM guidance except with a few adjustments to
the probabilities.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains over the region today with a trough
of low pressure shifting through during this evening.
VFR. NNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt this
afternoon. Sea breezes anticipated for KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP late
afternoon.
Light WNW winds overnight, then veering slightly and increasing
for the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional. Sea breeze at KJFK might not
occur.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM: VFR. Chance of MVFR cond with any afternoon and
evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. NW winds G20-25kt.
Wednesday: VFR. W winds G20kt.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and
early evening showers both days.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels Wednesday through
Saturday night as low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes weakens
through Thursday. Weak low pressure will then remain in the vicinity
of the forecast waters through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure near Nova Scotia was producing an easterly
swell, in addition to Ekman transport with a prolonged northerly
offshore flow. Guidance continues to indicate water levels during
tonight`s high tide cycles will should be higher than recent high
tide cycles. Water levels at Freeport may reach moderate flood
benchmarks. Advisories and statements remain in effect for the south
shore of western Long Island/NY Harbor/western Sound areas.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches through this evening. There is a low risk for
the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Tuesday
and Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...