000
FXUS61 KOKX 062249
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
649 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the region this evening. Low
pressure will otherwise remain near the Canadian Maritimes
Wednesday. The low weakens as it shifts over the area Thursday
before moving into the western Atlantic Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday and moves offshore
Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for isolated thunderstorms producing small hail across
Long Island Sound and eastern Long Island. Also, updated
temperatures and dew points, however, with the showers and
thunderstorms moving through difficult to forecast accurate
trends.
Strong vort energy has been approaching the area late this
afternoon, which generated showers and scattered thunderstorms.
A few of the storms have been capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. The strongest of the cells did produce quarter
sized hail in southern Westchester County earlier this
afternoon. The severe threat remains marginal into this evening
with CAPE values approaching 500-1000 J/kg. Will need to watch
over southeastern CT as another shortwave along with the actual
cold front may support convection currently over MA making its
way south. Loss of daytime heating should weaken the activity
towards sunset. CAMs are in pretty good agreement with
convection diminishing in coverage 23-02z. Any lingering showers
north of the area the first half of tonight likely diminish
before reaching our interior zones.
Smoke and haze from wildfires across eastern Canada will
continue working into the region this evening. Visibilities will
likely lower to 3-5sm at times. The latest HRRR near surface
smoke fields indicate the concentration may lower overnight
behind the cold front passage, but have left widespread haze in
the forecast into the early morning hours.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s inland and lower to middle 50s close to the
coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered cyclonic flow continues with anomalous closed low
retrograding from the Maritimes to northern New England
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Disturbances rotating around the
upper low will bring scattered to broken clouds Wednesday
afternoon with a slight chance of showers. Coverage looks less
than today with less forcing and less focus at the surface. Any
shower activity looks isolated on Wednesday afternoon and the
latest suite of CAMs is in good agreement. Temperatures on
Wednesday will reach the low to middle 70s. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast.
Hazy conditions are likely to continue through Wednesday
evening. Near surface smoke may be less in the morning, but the
last several runs of the extended HRRR have indicated higher
concentrations of smoke closer to the surface in the afternoon
and evening on Wednesday. The concentrations could be higher
across the western half of the forecast area, but have put in
patchy smoke areawide for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper closed low pressure across the northeast Thursday remains
Friday and then weakens and moves east Saturday. The longwave
trough remains across eastern Canada and another shortwave will
move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another
closed low that remains into Tuesday. Generally unsettled
weather will impact the area through much of the long term with
a chance of showers, and thunderstorms during the afternoons and
evenings Thursday into Saturday. A surface low and cold front
impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be
below seasonal levels Thursday and Friday, and return to more
seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front moves through into early this evening.
SHRA and TSRA continue to move SE across the area. Activity is
expected to wane towards 21-22z, with perhaps far eastern terminals
still contending with -TSRA as late as 23z. Best chance of thunder
goes through the first half of this evening, especially for CT and
LI terminals where brief IFR conditions are possible.
Winds shift NW after fropa, them diminish late this evening into the
overnight. NW winds continue into Wed, with eastern coastal
terminals like KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON likely going W and SW late
in the day.
Smoke from Quebec wildfires will limit slant range visibility at
times this evening, especially for NYC terminals and KISP/KGON/KBDR.
Less confidence in reduction in vsby for KEWR/KTEB/KSWF based on
latest satellite trends for the smoke.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD may be needed through 0z for tstm and shra timing/coverage.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon: VFR. W-NW winds G20kt. MVFR vsby again possible
in smoke/haze at the NYC metros from 20Z-24Z.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the
upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in
place. Low pressure moves away from the waters Thursday into
Friday, and high pressure builds in for Saturday and then east
on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A special weather statement remains until 7pm for NE NJ with
an enhanced risk of brush fire spread. This is due to NW winds
at times gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph and RH values 30 to 35
percent.
No SPS will be needed for Wednesday based on collaboration with
NJ land managers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to produce E
swell that in tandem with high astronomical tides is keeping water
levels higher than usual, especially in the back bays of Nassau.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the high tide
cycle late this evening as water levels there may barely touch
minor coastal flooding thresholds.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches on Wednesday, and a moderate risk on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD/DBR
MARINE...DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...