000
FXUS61 KOKX 070045
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
845 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through and gets east of the region tonight.
Low pressure will otherwise remain near the Canadian Maritimes
Wednesday. The low weakens as it shifts over the area Thursday
before moving into the western Atlantic Thursday night into
Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday and moves offshore
Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Any lingering showers continue to dissipate with the loss of
daytime / diurnal support. A stray shower or thundershower cannot
be totally ruled out for the next few hours, but by and large the
activity has pushed offshore with any remaining activity weakening
up to the north around the Capital District.
Smoke and haze from wildfires across eastern Canada will
continue working into the region this evening. Visibilities will
have lowered to 2-5sm at times. The latest HRRR and RRFS_A near
surface smoke fields indicate the concentration may lower
overnight behind the cold front passage, but have left
widespread haze in the forecast into the early morning hours.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s inland and lower to middle 50s close to the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep-layered cyclonic flow continues with anomalous closed low
retrograding from the Maritimes to northern New England
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Disturbances rotating around the
upper low will bring scattered to broken clouds Wednesday
afternoon with a slight chance of showers. Coverage looks less
than today with less forcing and less focus at the surface. Any
shower activity looks isolated on Wednesday afternoon and the
latest suite of CAMs is in good agreement. Temperatures on
Wednesday will reach the low to middle 70s. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the 40s inland and 50s closer to the coast.
Hazy conditions are likely to continue through Wednesday
evening. Near surface smoke may be less in the morning, but the
last several runs of the extended HRRR have indicated higher
concentrations of smoke closer to the surface in the afternoon
and evening on Wednesday. The concentrations could be higher
across the western half of the forecast area, but have put in
patchy smoke areawide for now.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper closed low pressure across the northeast Thursday remains
Friday and then weakens and moves east Saturday. The longwave
trough remains across eastern Canada and another shortwave will
move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another
closed low that remains into Tuesday. Generally unsettled
weather will impact the area through much of the long term with
a chance of showers, and thunderstorms during the afternoons and
evenings Thursday into Saturday. A surface low and cold front
impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be
below seasonal levels Thursday and Friday, and return to more
seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves to the east late this evening. VFR and MVFR
through the TAF period, with periods of MVFR mainly associated with
lower visibilities due to smoke. Latest amendments have lowered
visibilities through 5-6z due to thicker smoke and haze being
reported with slant range visibilities being impacted at a few
terminals. Brief IFR visibilities from time to time through 6z,
with IFR visibilities handled with TEMPO groups for some
terminals.
Winds have shifted NW and diminish late this evening into the
overnight. NW winds continue into Wed, with eastern coastal
terminals like KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON likely going W and SW late
in the day.
Smoke from Quebec wildfires will limit slant range visibility at
times this evening and possibly later tonight. Smoke and haze issues
likely return again late Wed and Wed evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Visibilities at ground may get as low as 3sm at times in smoke with
amendments possible through tonight. Smoke from Canadian wildfires
could limit slant range visibilities due to smoke aloft.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: N-NW winds around 5 kt. MVFR vsby again possible in
smoke/haze, especially during the evening.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the
upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in
place. Low pressure moves away from the waters Thursday into
Friday, and high pressure builds in for Saturday and then east
on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A special weather statement remains until 7pm for NE NJ with
an enhanced risk of brush fire spread. This is due to NW winds
at times gusting as high as 20 to 25 mph and RH values 30 to 35
percent.
No SPS will be needed for Wednesday based on collaboration with
NJ land managers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to produce E
swell that in tandem with high astronomical tides is keeping water
levels higher than usual, especially in the back bays of Nassau.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the high tide
cycle late this evening as water levels there may barely touch
minor coastal flooding thresholds.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches on Wednesday, and a moderate risk on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...