000
FXUS61 KOKX 071954
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure drifts over northern New England tonight and then
weakens in place on Thursday. A series of troughs will move across
the area Thursday into Friday. A weak area of low pressure skirts
the coast Friday into Saturday, with high pressure building in
thereafter through Sunday. A frontal system then tracks east
from the Great Lakes and potentially impacts the area early-to-
mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread smoke is the main concern heading into this evening.
Thick smoke as seen on multiple GOES-16 channels is continuing to
move over the area from the north and west. Seeing visibilities drop
to as low as around 1 mile in spots. NYS mesonet LIDARs are also
showing higher dense smoke particulates as this plume moves
overhead. HRRR low level smoke fields are showing this higher
concentration remaining over much of our area into this evening. Low
visibilities, poor air quality, and the smell of smoke is expected.
Some improvement is possible across southeastern CT especially
heading into the overnight. This is due to the smoke getting
pushed southward with the closed upper low retrograding slowly
west over northern New England.
Otherwise, anomalous upper low will retrograde over northern New
England tonight. The associated surface low pressure will start
weakening as it settles over the New England coast.
Have left in slight chance of showers early this evening across SE
CT as there is a more expansive cloud cover and a weak surface
trough. This is where some of the thicker smoke could mix out or
improve later this evening.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s inland, to the upper 50s
across the NYC metro. This is slightly below normal with some cooler
air wrapping around behind the low and into the areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper low becomes nearly stationary across Thursday into
Thursday night as the flow pattern remains blocked and highly
amplifed. The cold pocket aloft associated with the upper low and
disturbances rotating around it will combine with weak after surface
trough to develop scattered showers Thursday afternoon. The CAMs
indicate limited CAPE, but enough to warrant a slight chance mention
of thunder across the interior. The CSU machine learning severe
probabilities are less than 5 percent. While severe weather is
not anticipated, the colder air aloft could help develop a few
showers with small hail. The probability of precip is lower
towards the coast based on the latest model trends.
Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the
upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex.
This will result in temperatueres in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
HRRR smoke fields indicate potential for some smoke to make it to
the surface, but at lower concentrations compared to Wednesday. Will
mention patchy smoke for now during the day with potential of haze.
Confidence is not high enough to mention a more widespread smoke at
this time.
Any afternoon/evening showers and isolated storms diminish with loss
of daytime heating Thursday evening. Kept haze in the forecast
Thursday night with lows falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s
inland and middle to upper 50s near the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper trough axis shifts southeast and across the area on
Friday, with a weak surface trough nearby. This will result in
increasing chances of showers, especially by the afternoon and
evening hours. Airmass is fairly stable but there could be isolated
thunderstorms, especially over the interior. SPC currently has a
general thunder outlined for the area, which seems reasonable. The
scattered showers may persist into the overnight or early Saturday
morning before drying out. Overall, rainfall amounts look to be
light, with less than a quarter inch outside convective maxima.
Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the
upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex
into the weekend. Conditions largely dry out though for coastal
areas this weekend as weak surface high pressure passes to the
south. The exception will be across the interior during the
afternoon on Saturday and Sunday, where diurnal convection is
possible with the cool upper low nearby.
A shortwave swings south into the Great Lakes early next week, with
a surface low developing and potentially impacting the region late
Monday into Tuesday with a period of rain. The surface low and cold
front impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms once again, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours.
Friday will be seasonably cool for June, as the region lies
underneath the upper low. A gradual warmup begins by Saturday as the
trough exits and heights begin to rise, with highs getting into the
upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the region away from the
immediate shoreline. Largely followed blended national guidance for
this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thick smoke has overtaken the entire region with widespread IFR
conditions with visibilities 1-3 miles. While there is no cloud
deck, vertical visibilities are extremely limited due to
surface obscuration of the sky from smoke. This will likely
continue into early this evening. Though the smoke likely thins
somewhat tonight, some restriction in visibility remains likely, so
kept MVFR visibilities in the TAFs at this time.
Tomorrow will once again maintain FU and HZ in the TAFs with
MVFR visibilities, but there is significant uncertainty in the
concentration and density of the of the smoke and haze to restrict
visibilities. Showers with an isolated thunderstorm is possible
tomorrow afternoon for inland terminals, mainly KSWF, KBDR,
KHPN. Included PROB30s for SHRA for NYC terminals after 18Z.
W/NW winds continue this afternoon 10-15 kt with occasional
gusts 20-25 kt. Winds become light N/NW tonight before shifting back
to the W tomorrow at 10-15 kt. Sea breezes are more likely tomorrow
with coastal terminals becoming more SW or S between 16 - 20Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday PM through Friday: Mainly VFR. FU/HZ may reduce
visibilities to MVFR Thursday. Chance of afternoon and early evening
showers both days.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the
afternoon and evening with showers possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued a marine dense smoke advisory for the NY Harbor, ocean
waters out to Moriches Inlet and western and central LI sound
until 6 pm. Visibilities are around 1 nm or less due to dense
smoke from wildfires in southeast Canada. This may need to be
extended in time and potentially need to be expanded further
east. A marine weather statement was issued for eastern waters
where visibilities are falling but still largely above 1 nm
until 10 pm.
Otherwise, winds and seas remain below SCA levels through this
weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.
SCA conditions possibly return late Monday or Tuesday with a frontal
system impacting the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. That being
the case, it`s still possible for the high tide cycles the next
few nights to get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks
across the south shore back bays of Nassau. A statement is
possible, but confidence is not high enough at this time to
issue.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches today and Thursday due to a diminishing swell and
weak winds.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
335-338-345-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...