000
FXUS61 KOKX 072348
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure drifts over northern New England tonight and then
weakens in place on Thursday. A series of disturbances will move
through the area Thursday and Friday, with high pressure building
in thereafter through the weekend. A frontal system then tracks
east from the Great Lakes and potentially impacts the area
early to mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Widespread smoke continues to be the main concern heading into
tonight. Thick smoke as seen on multiple GOES-16 channels over
the area is gradually sinking south and east. Decreased
visibilities continue to be observed at ASOS sites and other
reporting stations, with some areas under a mile at times. NYS
mesonet LIDARs are also showing higher dense smoke particulates
as the plume moves overhead. HRRR low level smoke fields are
showing this higher concentration remaining over much of our
area into the late evening. Low visibilities, poor air quality,
and the smell of smoke can be expected. Some improvement is
possible, particularly across southeastern CT into the overnight,
due to the smoke getting pushed southward with the closed upper
low retrograding slowly west over northern New England.
Otherwise, anomalous upper low will retrograde over northern New
England tonight. The associated surface low pressure will start
weakening as it settles over the New England coast. Removed
the mention of showers in SE CT, where the smoke is helping to
stabilize conditions. While a stray sprinkle is still possible,
this appears unlikely at this point.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s inland, to the upper 50s
across the NYC metro. This is slightly below normal with some cooler
air wrapping around behind the low and into the areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper low becomes nearly stationary across Thursday into
Thursday night as the flow pattern remains blocked and highly
amplified. The cold pocket aloft associated with the upper low
and disturbances rotating around it will combine with weak after
surface trough to develop scattered showers Thursday afternoon.
The CAMs indicate limited CAPE, but enough to warrant a slight
chance mention of thunder across the interior. The CSU machine
learning severe probabilities are less than 5 percent. While
severe weather is not anticipated, the colder air aloft could
help develop a few showers with small hail. The probability of
precip is lower towards the coast based on the latest model
trends.
Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the
upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex.
This will result in temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
HRRR smoke fields indicate potential for some smoke to make it to
the surface, but at lower concentrations compared to Wednesday. Will
mention patchy smoke for now during the day with potential of haze.
Confidence is not high enough to mention a more widespread smoke at
this time.
Any afternoon/evening showers and isolated storms diminish with loss
of daytime heating Thursday evening. Kept haze in the forecast
Thursday night with lows falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s
inland and middle to upper 50s near the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper trough axis shifts southeast and across the area on
Friday, with a weak surface trough nearby. This will result in
increasing chances of showers, especially by the afternoon and
evening hours. Airmass is fairly stable but there could be isolated
thunderstorms, especially over the interior. SPC currently has a
general thunder outlined for the area, which seems reasonable. The
scattered showers may persist into the overnight or early Saturday
morning before drying out. Overall, rainfall amounts look to be
light, with less than a quarter inch outside convective maxima.
Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the
upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex
into the weekend. Conditions largely dry out though for coastal
areas this weekend as weak surface high pressure passes to the
south. The exception will be across the interior during the
afternoon on Saturday and Sunday, where diurnal convection is
possible with the cool upper low nearby.
A shortwave swings south into the Great Lakes early next week, with
a surface low developing and potentially impacting the region late
Monday into Tuesday with a period of rain. The surface low and cold
front impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms once again, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours.
Friday will be seasonably cool for June, as the region lies
underneath the upper low. A gradual warmup begins by Saturday as the
trough exits and heights begin to rise, with highs getting into the
upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the region away from the
immediate shoreline. Largely followed blended national guidance for
this update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Thick smoke remains over the entire region with MVFR to IFR
conditions. While there is no cloud deck, vertical visibilities
are extremely limited due to surface obscuration of the sky
from smoke. This will likely continue into early this evening.
Though the smoke likely thins somewhat later this evening and
tonight, some restriction in visibility remains likely, and have
continued with MVFR visibilities at this time. There is
uncertainty as to the timing and how much visibilities improve
this evening and tonight.
Smoke and haze remain into tomorrow, however, there is high
uncertainty as to restrictions to visibilities and vertical
visibilities in smoke, with significant uncertainty in the
concentration and density of the smoke.
Showers, with an isolated thunderstorm, are possible late
Thursday afternoon for inland terminals. There are timing
uncertainties with the showers, however, latest guidance
indicating a later timing and delayed chances to late afternoon
into the evening.
NW winds diminish and become more northerly in the NYC area,
and light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds then
become NW Thursday morning with a sea breeze developing early in
the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in
the timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
Timing of the sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour earlier than
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: Mainly VFR. FU/HZ likely reduce
visibilities to MVFR Thursday. Chance of afternoon and early
evening showers both days.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the
afternoon and evening with showers possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Marine Dense Smoke Advisory for the NY Harbor, ocean waters out
to Moriches Inlet and western and central LI sound until 10 pm.
Visibilities are around 1 nm or less due to dense smoke from
wildfires in southeast Canada. This may need to be extended in
time and potentially expanded further east if vsbys begin to
drop any lower. A Marine Weather Statement was issued for these
eastern waters where visibilities are lower, but still remain
largely above 1 nm.
Otherwise, winds and seas remain below SCA levels through this
weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. SCA
conditions possibly return late Monday or Tuesday with a frontal
system impacting the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. That being
the case, it`s possible for the high tide cycles the next few
nights to get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across the
south shore back bays of Nassau. A statement remains possible,
but confidence is not high enough at this time to issue.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches Thursday and Friday due to a diminishing swell
and weak winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
335-338-345-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR