000
FXUS61 KOKX 081150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
750 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent pattern remains with weak low pressure in the vicinity of
Coastal New England and weak high pressure staying west of the
region today through Friday night. For Saturday, low pressure will
shift farther east of the region with high pressure starting to move
closer to the local region. Weak high pressure pushes offshore
Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning
into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures and dewpoints adjusted to better match with
observed trends. Otherwise, rest of forecast on track.
Weak low pressure remains in the Gulf of Maine with an associated
weak trough back to the south and west. A weak pressure gradient
will allow for the eventual development of sea breeze
circulations this afternoon.
The persistent weather pattern and winds remaining light will mean
not much change to the current areas of smoke and haze. These are
expected to linger across the region going through this morning and
then become more patchy for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern Connecticut this afternoon. The sea breeze may help bring
some smoke back into coastal areas for the afternoon and into this
evening. Therefore for places such as Northeast NJ, NYC, and Long
Island would expect the areas of smoke and haze to stay. The smoke
and haze will result in reduced visibilities and a deterioration of
air quality to unhealthy levels due to particulate matter. The state
environmental agencies air quality alerts that cover our entire area
remain in effect until midnight tonight for air quality index
exceeding unhealthy standards for particulate matter. The smoke
and haze in the forecast followed closely to the HRRR forecast
parameter of near surface smoke.
With daytime warming there will be an increase in low level
instability and with the trough associated with low pressure in the
area, there will be chances of showers along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. The slight chance of thunder was put for the interior
areas which will have more instability compared to along the coast.
The coastal areas are expected to remain mostly dry, and that will
help keep the smoke areas intact with less breaking up compared to
farther north.
Chances for showers lower mid to late this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating and thereby instability. Areas of smoke and haze
linger across the coastal sections but will become more patchy
across inland areas. The smoke along the coast is forecast to
eventually become more patchy late tonight with otherwise just some
lingering haze and mainly dry conditions.
High temperatures for today used a consensus of MOS with a slight
manual decrease of those temperatures along the coast. High
temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most locations. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from
the upper 40s to upper 50s using a consensus of MOS again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, there is forecast to be an upper level trough that will
have the local area in a location of more positive vorticity
advection. At the surface, low pressure and its associated trough
linger within the region. Numerical weather prediction models show a
stronger signal for convergence and rainfall across the local
region. Instability is forecast to be higher as well, getting to a
range between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This will allow for chances of
showers and thunderstorms.
Still expecting some haze to linger around the coastal areas but the
showers should be acting with wet deposition to reduce the
concentrations of residual smoke in the lower atmosphere.
Forecast high temperatures Friday used a MOS consensus and are
pretty similar to the high temperatures the previous day, ranging
mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
With the upper level trough slow to pass through the region, the
local area will remain in elevated positive vorticity advection near
the trough axis Friday night. While thunder chances will be less,
rain shower chances remain through the evening. The rain shower
chances decrease more overnight Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday
night.
Shower chances remain Saturday along with a slight chance of thunder
mainly across the interior with the upper level trough axis shifting
east of the region. Surface low pressure likewise will also be
moving east of the region. Both of these features push far enough to
the east of the area Saturday night to allow for dry conditions to
return. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s with some mid 70s in parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast
lows Saturday night stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the region Sunday will push offshore late
Sunday into Monday. This will provide dry conditions through the day
Sunday. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday,
developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late
Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes
region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the
area through Monday night and then move through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The low will become stacked and remain over the Great
Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and
pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. The
upper low associated with the stacked low will open into a trough
that may remain over New England through the middle of next week.
With the exception of Sunday into early Sunday night, generally
unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term
with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday as
the warm and cold fronts slowly approach and then move through the
area.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thick smoke remains over the entire region with MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions. While there is no cloud deck, vertical visibilities
are extremely limited due to surface obscuration of the sky
from smoke. Restriction in visibility remains likely, and have
continued with MVFR visibilities at this time, with TEMPO low
end MVFR visibilities. There is uncertainty as to the timing and
how much visibilities improve today. Visibilities may begin to
improve from N to S late in the afternoon into the evening
hours. However, the smoke looks like it could linger over the
metro and Long Island terminals through the TAF period.
Showers, with an isolated thunderstorm, are possible late Thursday
afternoon for inland terminals.
NW winds diminish and become more northerly in the NYC area,
and light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds then
become NW Thursday morning with a sea breeze developing early in
the afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the SW/SE at around 10
kt. Winds become light and variable for most, if not all
terminals Thursday evening. Those that do not become light and
variable will see NW winds of 5 to 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The afternoon haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant
range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is
large uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at the
surface and aloft.
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
Timing of the sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour earlier than
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. FU/HZ likely reduce visibilities to MVFR
Thursday, with some improvement possible for Friday. Chance of
showers with an isolated thunderstorm for Friday.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds regarding wind
gusts and seas through Saturday night. Dense smoke advisory has
been issued until 11AM this morning for NY Harbor and western
ocean zone between Sandy Hook NJ and Fire Island Inlet NY out 20
NM after observing some lower visibilities from the area
webcams. Marine weather advisory for patchy dense smoke remains
until 11AM this morning for the rest of the area waters.
Waves will remain below SCA levels through Monday night. An
increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring a
period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. That being
the case, the high tide cycles tonight and possibly Friday night
get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across the South
Shore back bays of Nassau NY and Queens NY. For 10PM tonight
until 2AM Friday, there is a coastal flood statement to cover
brief minor coastal flooding for the South Shore Bays of Queens
NY and Nassau NY. The total water level is expected to touch or
slightly exceed the minor coastal flood benchmark around the
time of high tide.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and
low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday
due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches
will have a low rip current risk.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ338-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...