000
FXUS61 KOKX 081315
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
915 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent pattern remains with weak low pressure in the vicinity of
Coastal New England and weak high pressure staying west of the
region today through Friday night. For Saturday, low pressure will
shift farther east of the region with high pressure starting to move
closer to the local region. Weak high pressure pushes offshore
Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning
into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The thickest smoke plume appears to have shifted south of Long
Island based on latest GOES-16 satellite trends. Areas of smoke
and haze are still anticipated today, but appears it will not be
as thick as what was observed on Wednesday. Will have to see if
the sea breeze does try to bring in some of the thicker smoke
into coastal areas. Air quality is still poor, but the real time
numbers have been slowly improving from what was seen on
Wednesday.
Otherwise, weak low pressure remains in the Gulf of Maine with
an associated weak trough back to the south and west. A weak
pressure gradient will allow for the eventual development of sea
breeze circulations this afternoon.
With daytime warming there will be an increase in low level
instability and with the trough associated with low pressure in
the area, there will be chances of showers along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The slight chance of thunder was put
for the interior areas which will have more instability compared
to along the coast. The coastal areas are expected to remain
mostly dry, and that will help keep the smoke areas intact with
less breaking up compared to farther north.
Chances for showers lower mid to late this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating and thereby instability. Areas of smoke and haze
linger across the coastal sections but will become more patchy
across inland areas. The smoke along the coast is forecast to
eventually become more patchy late tonight with otherwise just some
lingering haze and mainly dry conditions.
High temperatures for today used a consensus of MOS with a slight
manual decrease of those temperatures along the coast. High
temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most locations. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from
the upper 40s to upper 50s using a consensus of MOS again.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, there is forecast to be an upper level trough that will
have the local area in a location of more positive vorticity
advection. At the surface, low pressure and its associated trough
linger within the region. Numerical weather prediction models show a
stronger signal for convergence and rainfall across the local
region. Instability is forecast to be higher as well, getting to a
range between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This will allow for chances of
showers and thunderstorms.
Still expecting some haze to linger around the coastal areas but the
showers should be acting with wet deposition to reduce the
concentrations of residual smoke in the lower atmosphere.
Forecast high temperatures Friday used a MOS consensus and are
pretty similar to the high temperatures the previous day, ranging
mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
With the upper level trough slow to pass through the region, the
local area will remain in elevated positive vorticity advection near
the trough axis Friday night. While thunder chances will be less,
rain shower chances remain through the evening. The rain shower
chances decrease more overnight Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday
night.
Shower chances remain Saturday along with a slight chance of thunder
mainly across the interior with the upper level trough axis shifting
east of the region. Surface low pressure likewise will also be
moving east of the region. Both of these features push far enough to
the east of the area Saturday night to allow for dry conditions to
return. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s with some mid 70s in parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast
lows Saturday night stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the region Sunday will push offshore late
Sunday into Monday. This will provide dry conditions through the day
Sunday. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday,
developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late
Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes
region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the
area through Monday night and then move through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The low will become stacked and remain over the Great
Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and
pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. The
upper low associated with the stacked low will open into a trough
that may remain over New England through the middle of next week.
With the exception of Sunday into early Sunday night, generally
unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term
with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday as
the warm and cold fronts slowly approach and then move through the
area.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thick smoke remains over the entire region with MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions. While there is no cloud deck, vertical visibilities
are extremely limited due to surface obscuration of the sky
from smoke. Restriction in visibility remains likely, and have
continued with MVFR visibilities at this time, with TEMPO low
end MVFR visibilities. There is uncertainty as to the timing and
how much visibilities improve today. Visibilities may begin to
improve from N to S late in the afternoon into the evening
hours. However, the smoke looks like it could linger over the
metro and Long Island terminals through the TAF period.
Showers, with an isolated thunderstorm, are possible late Thursday
afternoon for inland terminals.
NW winds diminish and become more northerly in the NYC area,
and light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds then
become NW Thursday morning with a sea breeze developing early in
the afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the SW/SE at around 10
kt. Winds become light and variable for most, if not all
terminals Thursday evening. Those that do not become light and
variable will see NW winds of 5 to 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The afternoon haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant
range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is
large uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at the
surface and aloft.
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
Timing of the sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour earlier than
forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. FU/HZ likely reduce visibilities to MVFR
Thursday, with some improvement possible for Friday. Chance of
showers with an isolated thunderstorm for Friday.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions on the waters remain below SCA thresholds regarding wind
gusts and seas through Saturday night. Dense smoke advisory has
been issued until 11AM this morning for NY Harbor and western
ocean zone between Sandy Hook NJ and Fire Island Inlet NY out 20
NM after observing some lower visibilities from the area
webcams. Marine weather advisory for patchy dense smoke remains
until 11AM this morning for the rest of the area waters.
Waves will remain below SCA levels through Monday night. An
increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring a
period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. A few spots
may still touch minor benchmarks across the south shore bays of
southern Queens and southern Nassau. A coastal flood statement
was issued for 10pm to 2am tonight.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and
low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday
due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches
will have a low rip current risk.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ338-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...