000
FXUS61 KOKX 081508
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Persistent pattern remains with weak low pressure in the vicinity
of Coastal New England through Friday night. For Saturday, low
pressure shifts away from the waters with high pressure building
in through the weekend. The high pushes offshore late Sunday into
Monday. A frontal system impacts the area from the beginning into
the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The thickest smoke plume appears to have shifted south of Long
Island based on latest GOES-16 satellite trends. Areas of smoke
and haze are still anticipated today, but appears it will not be
as thick as what was observed on Wednesday. Will have to see if
the sea breeze does try to bring in some of the thicker smoke
into coastal areas. Air quality is still poor, but the real time
numbers have been slowly improving from what was seen on
Wednesday.
Otherwise, weak low pressure remains in the Gulf of Maine with
an associated weak trough back to the south and west. A weak
pressure gradient will allow for the eventual development of sea
breeze circulations this afternoon.
With daytime warming there will be an increase in low level
instability and with the trough associated with low pressure in
the area, there will be chances of showers along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. The slight chance of thunder was put
for the interior areas which will have more instability compared
to along the coast. The coastal areas are expected to remain
mostly dry, and that will help keep the smoke areas intact with
less breaking up compared to farther north.
Chances for showers lower mid to late this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating and thereby instability. Areas of smoke and haze
linger across the coastal sections but will become more patchy
across inland areas. The smoke along the coast is forecast to
eventually become more patchy late tonight with otherwise just some
lingering haze and mainly dry conditions.
High temperatures for today used a consensus of MOS with a slight
manual decrease of those temperatures along the coast. High
temperatures forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most locations. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from
the upper 40s to upper 50s using a consensus of MOS again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Friday, there is forecast to be an upper level trough that will
have the local area in a location of more positive vorticity
advection. At the surface, low pressure and its associated trough
linger within the region. Numerical weather prediction models show a
stronger signal for convergence and rainfall across the local
region. Instability is forecast to be higher as well, getting to a
range between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This will allow for chances of
showers and thunderstorms.
Still expecting some haze to linger around the coastal areas but the
showers should be acting with wet deposition to reduce the
concentrations of residual smoke in the lower atmosphere.
Forecast high temperatures Friday used a MOS consensus and are
pretty similar to the high temperatures the previous day, ranging
mainly from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
With the upper level trough slow to pass through the region, the
local area will remain in elevated positive vorticity advection near
the trough axis Friday night. While thunder chances will be less,
rain shower chances remain through the evening. The rain shower
chances decrease more overnight Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Forecast lows range from the upper 40s to upper 50s Friday
night.
Shower chances remain Saturday along with a slight chance of thunder
mainly across the interior with the upper level trough axis shifting
east of the region. Surface low pressure likewise will also be
moving east of the region. Both of these features push far enough to
the east of the area Saturday night to allow for dry conditions to
return. Forecast highs Saturday are mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s with some mid 70s in parts of NYC and Northeast NJ. Forecast
lows Saturday night stay in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure over the region Sunday will push offshore late
Sunday into Monday. This will provide dry conditions through the day
Sunday. A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday,
developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late
Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes
region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the
area through Monday night and then move through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The low will become stacked and remain over the Great
Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and
pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. The
upper low associated with the stacked low will open into a trough
that may remain over New England through the middle of next week.
With the exception of Sunday into early Sunday night, generally
unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term
with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday as
the warm and cold fronts slowly approach and then move through the
area.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels Saturday into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thick smoke remains over the entire region with MVFR and
localized IFR conditions. While there is no cloud deck,
vertical visibilities are extremely limited due to surface
obscuration of the sky from smoke. Restriction in visibility to
3-5 SM remains likely today with slowly improving conditions
into the early afternoon. Sea breeze influence later this
afternoon may bring in areas of denser smoke and visibility
drops to near 2 SM for a few hours. Timing of sea breeze at ISP
and JFK is around 18Z with LGA and EWR toward 23-00Z. FU/HZ may
linger over the area tonight with MVFR visibilities expected,
gradually improving to near VFR as smoke thins toward 12Z
Friday.
Showers, with an isolated thunderstorm, are possible late this
afternoon for inland terminals. TSRA too uncertain and low
chance to include in the TAFs at time time for SWF, HPN, BDR.
NW winds around 10 kt shift W into the early PM. Sea breeze
developing early in the afternoon, allowing winds to shift to
the SW/SE at around 10 kt. Winds become light and variable for
most, if not all terminals this evening. Those that do not
become light and variable will see NW winds of 5 to 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The afternoon haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant
range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is
large uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at the
surface and aloft.
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
Timing of the sea breeze may be +/- an hour. Sea breeze may
bring reduced visibilities due to smoke.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Some improvement in FU/HZ. Chance of
showers with an isolated thunderstorm.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Visibilities have improved on the waters this morning, but some
areas of smoke will persist into this evening. The smoke may be
thicker over the ocean and LI Bays. Visibilities should remain
above 1 nm.
Winds and waves will remain below SCA levels theough Monday. An
increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring
a period of SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. A few spots
may still touch minor benchmarks across the south shore bays of
southern Queens and southern Nassau. A coastal flood statement
was issued for 10pm to 2am tonight.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and
low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday
due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches
will have a low rip current risk.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/MW
MARINE...JM/JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...