000
FXUS61 KOKX 082150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
550 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will meander over New England through Friday
night. The low pressure shifts away from the area on Saturday
with high pressure building in through the weekend. The high
pushes offshore late Sunday into Monday. A frontal system
impacts the area from the beginning into the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Near-term temperatures have been lowered slightly to account for
the latest observations and trends. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
Conditions continue to slowly improve this evening, with the
thickest smoke to our south and east. There still potential to
see areas of smoke closer to the coast this evening which the
HRRR has been showing occurring, but do not anticipate it being
as thick or dense as what has been observed the last few nights.
Haze remains in the forecast across the region as some smoke
aloft is still possible. Air quality alerts remain in effect for
Orange and Putnam counties until midnight and for the NYC
metro, Long Island, Rockland, Westchester, NE NJ and S CT
through midnight Friday night.
Otherwise, closed upper low and associated surface low meanders over
New England into tonight. There is still a chance for showers this
evening, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern
Connecticut. The HRRR has been indicated an isolated shower
developing along the sea breeze near Long Island, so will have a
slight chance mentioned closer to the coast. Loss of heating should
diminish any shower activity and have gone with a dry forecast after
11pm. Middle level clouds are likely to increase creating mostly
cloudy conditions overnight. Lows look to fall into the upper 40s
and lower 50s inland and the middle to upper 50s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low continues to meander over New England on Friday.
The main difference between Thursday and Friday will be a much
more defined shortwave that rotates around the upper low. This
will help keep weak low pressure at the surface. Winds in the
morning look to be light NE but will gradually see a surface
trough set up aiding in convergence. There will be scattered to
broken clouds through the day, but the upper low will aid in
fairly steep lapse rates. There are differences among the
modeling with amount of instability by afternoon with the
several CAMs (NAM3-km, WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF, and HRRR) showing an
average of about 500 J/kg. The FV3-WRF and the GFS are
indicating less CAPE. However, the cold pocket aloft from the
upper low and decent forcing should be enough to initiate at
least scattered convection in the afternoon and evening. CSU
machine learning probabilities for severe are less than 5
percent and SPC Day 2 is currently just for general
thunderstorms. Any shower/storm could contain small hail given
freezing levels are on average around 7-8 kft. The colder
thermal profiles aloft may coincide with enough CAPE and
marginal shear to support hail development. Cannot completely
rule out an isolated large hail occurrence as well. Gusty winds
are also possible in heavier downpours.
Scattered convection may continue into the early evening before
diminishing Friday night with loss of heating. The lingering
surface trough and energy aloft may support shower activity
into the first half of the night. Mostly cloudy conditions to
start Friday night will start to become partly cloudy to mostly
clear early Saturday morning as the shortwave and upper low
begin to slide to our east.
Hazy conditions are otherwise possible on Friday as there is
still enough concentration aloft per HRRR vertically integrated
smoke. Included patchy smoke across southeastern Long Island
based on the latest HRRR low level smoke fields which show
slightly higher values there.
Highs on Friday will be below average in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Lows Friday night range from the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to the middle and upper 50s close to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the
region on Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure
builds in briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will
lead to less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back
into seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on
Sunday. NBM was mostly used for temperatures. However, I did blend
in some MOS consensus for nights I expected to have less cloud
cover, particularly Saturday night, to account for any radiational
cooling which MOS seems to handle better than NBM in some spots.
Rain chances appear to be trending on the low side of things for
Saturday, before high pressure completely completely takes over. I
kept slight chances mainly just for interior areas. Winds will
return from a southerly direction on Monday which should
provide relief for any areas still being impacted by reduced air
quality at that time.
Next week a deepening low will build over the Great Lakes
before tracking east just to our north on Tuesday, bringing with
it an associated warm and cold front, then track to our
northeast by Wednesday. Plenty of PVA with this system and
dewpoints increasing with a southerly flow. Monday, in
particular, looks like a decent chance for widespread precip.
PWATs from the 12Z GFS are bringing in around 1.6-1.85" which
approaches the max moving average for June 13th from SPC`s
Sounding Climatology page of 1.89". The rain will likely build
Monday and clear Tuesday morning with a cold front, before more
rain chances late Tuesday into Wednesday. As far as thunderstorm
chances go, it looks like marginal instability will be present
next week, so kept some slight chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast for most afternoons next week. Temperatures look close
to seasonal averages next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Smoke remains over the entire region with general MVFR conditions.
Conditions have been slowly improving to VFR in some spots this
afternoon, especially for western and northern areas. Maintained
MVFR visibilities through tonight as FU/HZ may cause visibilities to
drop again with any sea breeze influence as thicker smoke remains
south of the area. FU/HZ may linger over the area tonight with MVFR
visibilities expected, gradually improving to more widespread VFR as
smoke continues to thin out toward 12Z Friday.
Showers are possible into this evening for inland terminals, mainly
SWF. Too low of a chance to include elsewhere. Better chance for
SHRA and TSRA for all terminals after 18Z Friday.
NW winds are slowly shifting to W this afternoon. Sea breeze
influence for coastal terminals this afternoon, allowing winds to
shift to the SW/SE at around 10 kt. Winds become light and variable
for most, if not all terminals this evening. Those that do not
become light and variable will see NW winds of 5 to 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range
visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. However, there is large
uncertainty with how restricted the visibility becomes at the
surface and aloft.
Amendments likely through the TAF period for fluctuation of
categories from visibility changes due to smoke. Uncertain in the
timing of improvement of visibilities from smoke.
Timing of the sea breeze may be +/- an hour. Sea breeze may bring
reduced visibilities due to smoke.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. Some improvement in FU/HZ. Chance of showers
with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or
tsra, mainly for northern terminals.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at
night in shra.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR or lower in the afternoon
and evening with showers. SE gusts 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: MVFR with SHRA mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Some smoke may linger over the waters, specifically the ocean,
this evening through Friday morning. Visibilities should remain
above 2-3 nm during this time period. Otherwise, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels into Monday. An increasing
southerly flow ahead of a frontal system could bring a period of
SCA winds on the ocean waters Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with
astronomical tides. A few spots may still touch minor
benchmarks across the south shore bays of southern Queens and
southern Nassau with tonight`s high tide. A coastal flood
statement remains from 10pm to 2am. Water levels look to remain
below minor benchmarks on Friday has astronomical tides continue
to fall.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and
low risk for rip currents for Suffolk ocean beaches. On Friday
due to a diminishing swell and weak winds, all ocean beaches
will have a low risk of rip currents.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...