000
FXUS61 KOKX 091445
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will meander over New England through tonight. The
low shifts away from the area on Saturday with weak high pressure
building in. The high pushes offshore late Sunday. Low pressure
moves east into the area Monday into Tuesday. The region will
be in between low pressure systems Wednesday with next low
pressure system coming from Southeast Canada. The cold front
associated with this low pressure system moves in Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Air quality at the surface continues to improve as much of the
low-level smoke that has been impacting the region the past
week has largely exited, though some haze remains with elevated
concentrations of smoke aloft. With the improved air quality,
CT DEEP has allowed the Air Quality Alert to be canceled, while
in NY and NJ zones it remains in place until midnight tonight.
The main weather feature today continues to be the upper level low
over northern New England. A shortwave rotates around the upper
low today, allowing for weak forcing that should help to instigate
scattered convection this afternoon and evening, especially
across the interior where the best mid-level lapse rates reside.
Inverted V in forecast soundings points to the potential for an
isolated strong thunderstorm or two. Cold pool aloft in association
with the upper low and some surface heating this afternoon will
allow for steep lapse rates to develop. Models also continue to
show surface based CAPE of up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, both
the freezing level and the wet bulb zero level are less than 10
kft and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE noted in the -10 to -30 degrees
C range in the models. So, small hail is certainly possible with
any of these storms, and an isolated instance of large hail
(>1.0" in diameter) is not out of the question. The convective
activity should weaken with loss of daytime heating and the exit
of the shortwave this evening, with the region expected to be
predominantly dry by midnight or so.
Highs today run below average, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows tonight range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the
middle and upper 50s close to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will slowly push east tonight into Saturday. With trough
axis to the east of the area, and weak surface high pressure
building in, expect just a slight chance for showers on Saturday.
The high then pushes offshore late on Sunday, with dry conditions
expected.
A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing
into another closed low that induces a surface low late Sunday night
The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the area
Sunday night and bring the next chance for precipitation across the
forecast area.
Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the region on
Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure builds in
briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will lead to
less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back into
seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on Sunday.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend for the weekend, with near
normal conditions expected for Saturday, and a few degrees above
normal for many places on Sunday as deep layered ridging takes
place.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid levels convey ridge moving east of the region Monday. Then a
cutoff mid level low moves in early to mid week from the Great
Lakes. This low eventually opens up with more of a trough structure
setting up north of the area for Thursday next week.
At the surface, main parent low moves into Great Lakes on Monday
with an approaching warm front. A secondary area of low pressure
develops along this front as it moves across Monday night into
Tuesday. Low pressure will be slow to exit as it moves just into the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, that parent low from
the Great Lakes weakens and moves in for midweek. This will bring an
associated cold front into the area for Thursday.
Rain showers are in the forecast early through mid next week along
with possible thunderstorms from time to time, mainly afternoon into
early evening, especially Monday and Wednesday. Yet more rain
showers are in the forecast Thursday with the next cold front moving
in.
Temperatures will not deviate much from normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure north of the area will eventually move farther
east for the end of the TAF period.
The residual smoke and haze has been decreasing and will be
isolated without much restriction in visibility. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected into this afternoon. This afternoon,
rain showers develop and move in from the north. These showers
will increase in coverage for the late afternoon into early
evening hours. The rain showers could temporarily lower
visibilities to MVFR. For the late afternoon into early evening
hours, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms, some of
which could produce small hail and gusty winds. Rain showers
come to an end late tonight with any remaining MVFR improving to
VFR.
Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts through the TAF period.
NW wind flow around 5-7 kts for NYC terminals. Sea breezes
develop for some coastal terminals this afternoon with otherwise
more northwesterly to westerly flow remaining. There will not
be much increase in wind speed.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Exact timing of showers and thunderstorms could be off by 1-2
hours from TAF.
Timing of MVFR could vary a few hours from TAF.
Wind direction could become quite variable for KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA
this afternoon into early this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with rain showers mainly
across terminals in Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT mainly
during the day and into early evening.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR at night with rain showers near
KBDR and KISP and west of these terminals, mainly late.
Monday: Rain showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm mainly afternoon into evening. SE gusts near 20 kt
during the day.
Tuesday: MVFR with rain showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms
afternoon into early evening near KGON.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday
night as there will be a lack of a strong pressure gradient.
Below SCA conditions forecast on all waters Mon through Wed. SCA
could possibly develop on the ocean at times depending on how model
trends are with the magnitude of low pressure approaching.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No widespread hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the NYC and Nassau
beaches today. The risk for these locations may start off as
low this morning, then increase to moderate later this
afternoon as long period swells move in from the southeast. All
other beaches remain low all day today as these long period
swells hold off until tonight in these locations.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches on
Saturday due to the long period swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/DR
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR