000
FXUS61 KOKX 091753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure meanders nearby through tonight before shifting
away from the area on Saturday with high pressure building in. The
high pushes offshore late Sunday, with low pressure moving east
into the area Monday into Tuesday. The region will be in
between low pressure systems Wednesday with next low pressure
system coming from Southeast Canada. The cold front associated
with this low pressure system moves in Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered convection has popped up over the last couple of hours,
particularly across the interior with a few t-storms being
monitored in southern CT. This is largely thanks to an upper
level low spinning over northern New England, with a shortwave
rotating around it allowing for weak forcing.
Inverted V in forecast soundings points to the potential for an
isolated strong thunderstorm or two. Cold pool aloft in association
with the upper low and some surface heating this afternoon will
allow for steep lapse rates to develop. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates surface based CAPE of up to 500 J/kg across much of
the region. Additionally, both the freezing level and the wet
bulb zero level are less than 10 kft and a few hundred J/kg of
CAPE noted in the -10 to -30 degrees C range in the models. So,
small hail is certainly possible with any of these storms, and
an isolated instance of large hail (>1.0" in diameter) is not
out of the question. The convective activity should weaken with
loss of daytime heating and the exit of the shortwave this
evening, with the region expected to be predominantly dry by
midnight or so.
Air quality at the surface continues to improve as much of the
low level smoke that has been impacting the region the past
week has largely exited, though some haze remains with elevated
concentrations of smoke aloft. With the improved air quality, CT
DEEP has allowed the Air Quality Alert to be canceled, while in
NY and NJ zones it remains in place until midnight tonight.
Highs today run below average, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows tonight range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the
middle and upper 50s close to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low will slowly push east tonight into Saturday. With trough
axis to the east of the area, and weak surface high pressure
building in, expect just a slight chance for showers on Saturday.
The high then pushes offshore late on Sunday, with dry conditions
expected.
A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing
into another closed low that induces a surface low late Sunday night
The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the area
Sunday night and bring the next chance for precipitation across the
forecast area.
Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the region on
Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure builds in
briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will lead to
less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back into
seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on Sunday.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend for the weekend, with near
normal conditions expected for Saturday, and a few degrees above
normal for many places on Sunday as deep layered ridging takes
place.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid levels convey ridge moving east of the region Monday. Then a
cutoff mid level low moves in early to mid week from the Great
Lakes. This low eventually opens up with more of a trough structure
setting up north of the area for Thursday next week.
At the surface, main parent low moves into Great Lakes on Monday
with an approaching warm front. A secondary area of low pressure
develops along this front as it moves across Monday night into
Tuesday. Low pressure will be slow to exit as it moves just into the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, that parent low from
the Great Lakes weakens and moves in for midweek. This will bring an
associated cold front into the area for Thursday.
Rain showers are in the forecast early through mid next week along
with possible thunderstorms from time to time, mainly afternoon into
early evening, especially Monday and Wednesday. Yet more rain
showers are in the forecast Thursday with the next cold front moving
in.
Temperatures will not deviate much from normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure north of the area will eventually move farther
east for the end of the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected into this afternoon as smoke and
haze have all but dissipated across the region. This afternoon,
rain showers develop and move in from the north. These showers
will increase in coverage for the late afternoon into early
evening hours. The rain showers could temporarily lower
visibilities to MVFR. For the late afternoon into early evening
hours, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms, some of
which could produce small hail and gusty winds. TS Coverage is
uncertain and too low to include in any individual TAF. Rain
showers come to an end late tonight with any remaining MVFR
improving to VFR.
Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts through the TAF period.
NW wind flow around 5-7 kts for NYC terminals. Sea breezes
develop for some coastal terminals this afternoon with otherwise
more northwesterly to westerly flow remaining. There will not
be much increase in wind speed. Sea breezes possible along the
coast on Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Exact timing of showers and thunderstorms and any MVFR could be
off by 1-2 hours from TAF. Coverage of TSRA not high enough to
include in any particular TAF.
Wind direction could become quite variable for KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA
this afternoon into early this evening but generally less than
10 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with rain
showers mainly across terminals in Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern CT mainly during the day and into early evening.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Rain showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm mainly afternoon into evening. SE gusts near 20 kt
during the day.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in -SHRA
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in -TSRA/-SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday
night as there will be a lack of a strong pressure gradient.
Below SCA conditions forecast on all waters Mon through Wed. SCA
could possibly develop on the ocean at times depending on how model
trends are with the magnitude of low pressure approaching.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the NYC and Nassau
beaches today. The risk for these locations may start off as
low this morning, then increase to moderate later this
afternoon as long period swells move in from the southeast. All
other beaches remain low all day today as these long period
swells hold off until tonight in these locations.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches on
Saturday due to the long period swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...