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FXUS61 KOKX 091936
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure meanders nearby through tonight before shifting away from the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in. The high pressure exits offshore late Sunday. Low pressure moves east into the area Monday into Tuesday with a cold front late Monday. The region will be in between low pressure systems Wednesday with next low pressure system coming from Southeast Canada. A cold front associated with this low pressure system moves in Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Scattered convection has popped up this afternoon, particularly across the interior with a few t-storms being monitored in southern CT. This is largely thanks to an upper level low spinning over northern New England, with a shortwave rotating around it allowing for weak forcing. Inverted V in forecast soundings points to the potential for an isolated strong thunderstorm or two developing. Cold pool aloft in association with the upper low and some surface heating have allowed for steep lapse rates to develop. SPC mesoanalysis indicates surface based CAPE of up to 500 J/kg across much of the region. Additionally, both the freezing level and the wet bulb zero level are less than 10 kft and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE noted in the -10 to -30 degrees C range in the models. So, small hail is certainly possible with any of these storms, and an isolated instance of large hail (>1.0" in diameter) is not out of the question. The convective activity should weaken with loss of daytime heating and the exit of the shortwave energy this evening, with the region expected to be predominantly dry overnight. Air quality at the surface has improved considerably as much of the low level smoke that had been impacting the region the past week has largely exited, though some haze remains with elevated concentrations of smoke aloft. With the improved air quality, CT DEEP has allowed the Air Quality Alert to be canceled, while NY and NJ zones it remains in place until midnight tonight. Lows tonight range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the middle and upper 50s close to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Trough axis slides offshore as the upper low lifts northeast into Canada. Heights begin to rise in response, beginning a gradual warm up into the weekend. Weak surface high pressure builds in from the west, with a light W/NW flow expected through the day. Hi-res models indicate smoke fields remain clear of the region at the surface (for the time being), with some remaining aloft that could add a bit of haze to skies. With the trough slow to exit, expecting diurnal cloud cover and the possibility of a few showers, particularly across the interior, with cyclonic flow and steepened lapse rates from the cold pool aloft. Coverage is expected to be considerably less than Friday`s activity however. Temperatures return to closer to normal values on Saturday; highs largely range from the mid 70s to around 80 in the urban metro, and lows bottom out in the 50s and 60s by early Sunday morning. Largely followed a superblend of guidance for this update.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will be in control Sunday associated with a mid-level ridge. Mid levels convey ridge moving east of the region Monday. Low-level warm air advection with southerly winds will lead to warm temperatures with highs in the low/mid-80s except for coastal areas in the upper-70s. A cutoff mid level low moves in early to mid week from the Great Lakes. This low eventually opens up with more of a trough structure setting up north of the area for Thursday next week. At the surface, main parent low moves into Great Lakes on Monday with an approaching warm front. A secondary area of low pressure develops along this front as it moves across Monday night into Tuesday. Low pressure will be slow to exit as it moves just into the Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, that parent low from the Great Lakes weakens and moves in for midweek. This will bring an associated cold front into the area for Thursday. A low will linger over the Canadian Maritimes Rain showers are in the forecast early through mid next week along with possible thunderstorms most days, mainly afternoon into early evening, especially Monday and Wednesday. Yet more rain showers are in the forecast Thursday with the next cold front moving in. Temperatures will not deviate much from normal for next week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected into this evening as smoke and haze have all but dissipated across the region. This evening rain showers traverse the region from the north and could temporarily lower visibilities to MVFR. Into the early evening, there will also be a chance for thunder. TS Coverage is uncertain and too low to include in any individual TAF. Rain showers come to an end late tonight with any remaining MVFR improving to VFR. Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts through the TAF period. NW wind flow around 5-7 kts for NYC terminals. Sea breezes diminish at coastal terminals this evening otherwise more northwesterly to westerly flow remaining. Sea breezes possible along the coast on Saturday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Coverage of TSRA not high enough to include in any particular TAF. Wind direction could become quite variable for KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA this afternoon into early this evening but generally less than 10 kt. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with rain showers mainly across terminals in Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT mainly during the day and into early evening. Sunday: VFR. Monday: Rain showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon into evening. SE gusts near 20 kt during the day. Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in -SHRA Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in -TSRA/-SHRA. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night as there will be a lack of a strong pressure gradient. SCA conditions are expected over ocean waters 6Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday with 5 ft waves, winds will gust between 25-30 kts. Sub- SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic impacts expected through late next week.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches on Saturday due to the long period swells.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DR NEAR TERM...DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BR/DR HYDROLOGY...BR/DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR