000
FXUS61 KOKX 092101
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
501 PM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure meanders nearby through tonight before shifting
away from the area on Saturday as high pressure builds in. The
high pressure exits offshore late Sunday. Low pressure moves east
into the area Monday into Tuesday with a cold front late Monday.
The region will be in between low pressure systems Wednesday with
next low pressure system coming from Southeast Canada. A cold
front associated with this low pressure system moves in Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered convection has popped up this afternoon, particularly
across the interior with a few t-storms being monitored in
southern CT. This is largely thanks to an upper level low
spinning over northern New England, with a shortwave rotating
around it allowing for weak forcing.
Inverted V in forecast soundings points to the potential for an
isolated strong thunderstorm or two developing. Cold pool aloft
in association with the upper low and some surface heating have
allowed for steep lapse rates to develop. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates surface based CAPE of up to 500 J/kg across much of
the region. Additionally, both the freezing level and the wet
bulb zero level are less than 10 kft and a few hundred J/kg of
CAPE noted in the -10 to -30 degrees C range in the models. So,
small hail is certainly possible with any of these storms, and
an isolated instance of large hail (>1.0" in diameter) is not
out of the question. The convective activity should weaken with
loss of daytime heating and the exit of the shortwave energy this
evening, with the region expected to be predominantly dry
overnight.
Air quality at the surface has improved considerably as much of
the low level smoke that had been impacting the region the past
week has largely exited, though some haze remains with elevated
concentrations of smoke aloft. With the improved air quality,
CT DEEP has allowed the Air Quality Alert to be canceled, while
NY and NJ zones it remains in place until midnight tonight.
Lows tonight range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the
middle and upper 50s close to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Trough axis slides offshore as the upper low lifts northeast
into Canada. Heights begin to rise in response, beginning a
gradual warm up into the weekend.
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the west, with a light
W/NW flow expected through the day. Hi-res models indicate
smoke fields remain clear of the region at the surface (for the
time being), with some remaining aloft that could add a bit of
haze to skies. With the trough slow to exit, expecting diurnal
cloud cover and the possibility of a few showers, particularly
across the interior, with cyclonic flow and steepened lapse
rates from the cold pool aloft. Coverage is expected to be
considerably less than Friday`s activity however.
Temperatures return to closer to normal values on Saturday;
highs largely range from the mid 70s to around 80 in the urban
metro, and lows bottom out in the 50s and 60s by early Sunday
morning. Largely followed a superblend of guidance for this
update.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be in control Sunday associated with a
mid-level ridge. Mid levels convey ridge moving east of the region
Monday. Low-level warm air advection with southerly winds will lead
to warm temperatures with highs in the low/mid-80s except for
coastal areas in the upper-70s. A cutoff mid level low moves in
early to mid week from the Great Lakes. This low eventually opens up
with more of a trough structure setting up north of the area for
Thursday next week.
At the surface, main parent low moves into Great Lakes on Monday
with an approaching warm front. A secondary area of low pressure
develops along this front as it moves across Monday night into
Tuesday. Low pressure will be slow to exit as it moves just into the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, that parent low from
the Great Lakes weakens and moves in for midweek. This will bring an
associated cold front into the area for Thursday. A low will linger
over the Canadian Maritimes
Rain showers are in the forecast early through mid next week along
with possible thunderstorms most days, mainly afternoon into early
evening, especially Monday and Wednesday. Yet more rain showers are
in the forecast Thursday with the next cold front moving in.
Temperatures will not deviate much from normal for next week.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected into this evening as smoke and haze have
all but dissipated across the region. This evening rain showers
traverse the region from the north and could temporarily lower
visibilities to MVFR. Into the early evening, there will also be a
chance for thunder. TS Coverage is uncertain and too low to include
in any individual TAF. Rain showers come to an end late tonight with
any remaining MVFR improving to VFR.
Winds will be mainly less than 10 kts through the TAF period. NW
wind flow around 5-7 kts for NYC terminals. Sea breezes diminish at
coastal terminals this evening otherwise more northwesterly to
westerly flow remaining. Sea breezes possible along the coast on
Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Coverage of TSRA not high enough to include in any particular TAF.
Wind direction could become quite variable for KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA
this afternoon into early this evening but generally less than
10 kt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with rain
showers mainly across terminals in Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern CT mainly during the day and into early evening.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: Rain showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm mainly afternoon into evening. SE gusts near 20 kt
during the day.
Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in -SHRA
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in -TSRA/-SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday
night as there will be a lack of a strong pressure gradient.
SCA conditions are expected over ocean waters 6Z Monday to 12Z
Tuesday with 5 ft waves, winds will gust between 25-30 kts. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts expected through late next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Suffolk beaches on
Saturday while other beaches at a low risk. All beaches are
under a moderate risk Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BR