000
FXUS61 KOKX 101439
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1039 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and exits offshore
Sunday. Low pressure moves into the area from the west on Monday
and pushes a cold front through the area Monday night. Surface
low moves farther northeast of the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Another low approaches Wednesday into Wednesday night but
stays north of the area. Yet another low and associated cold
front approach and move in late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temps/dewpoints to better reflect latest observations.
The trough that was positioned over the area over the last week
finally lifts to the northeast giving way to rising heights and
weak ridging in the mid-levels. This will result in a mainly
dry and mostly sunny day with temperatures rising into the
middle to upper 70s. Though the trough departs today, some weak
instability may develop for northern portions of the area
allowing for a chance of an isolated shower into the afternoon.
Any shower dissipates tonight as weak surface high pressure
builds into the area from the south. A weak south flow develops
allowing for some subtle moisture advection into the area. Lows
tonight will be generally in the middle to upper 50s. the NYC
metro may not drop out of the low to middle 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As mid-level ridging maximizes in the area on Sunday and a light
south to southwest flow develops, high temperatures are expected
to rise to at or above average for mid-June with much of the
areas highs in the low to middle 80s. Some spots in and around
the NYC metro may approach 90. General onshore flow will allow
for an increase in cloud cover ahead of the next developing
low pressure system to the west.
A surface low pressure system developing to the west on Sunday
will push a warm front moves through the area Sunday night and
into Monday. This will allow chances of showers to increase
through Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold front
approaches the area on Monday with highs in the middle to upper
70s. This warmth may allow for some weak instability to develop
toward the afternoon ahead of the cold front. This will enhance
the potential for more widespread moderate rainfall, especially
for the westernmost areas Monday afternoon into early evening.
The front progresses eastward Monday night and into early
Tuesday.
Right now, WPC has the western portions of the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Monday afternoon and
into the evening. Rainfall totals of an inch are expected for
parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and into portions of NE NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the mid levels, a large cutoff low approaches the region from the
west Tuesday through Tuesday night. At the surface, a secondary low,
as part of a well occluded parent low back in the Great Lakes, is
forecast to be moving farther northeast of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night. The main parent low will also be moving
northeast as well. Chances for rain showers will remain in the
forecast for the region.
For Wednesday, the mid level cutoff low continues to approach from
the west but its center will stay north of the region. Here is where
the different numerical weather prediction exhibit differences with
respect to the speed of this feature. GFS keeps it more intact while
the ECMWF and Canadian models show the low becoming more progressive
and moving faster. The model differences carry into Wednesday night
with ECMWF and Canadian showing the low in the Canadian Maritimes by
early Thursday morning while the GFS keeps a slower speed to the low
and having it still in New England early Thursday. At the surface,
there is model agreement that the low approaching from the west
Wednesday into Wednesday night will not have much moisture with it
and will remain north of the area.
Rain showers will become more likely Wednesday along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon into early evening. Models
indicate some increase in low level instability for parts of the
region Wednesday afternoon. Rain shower chances decrease Wednesday
night as highest positive vorticity advection shifts farther east of
the region with the movement of the mid level low farther northeast
of the region. Brief high pressure at the surface will build in from
the south with slight height rises in the mid levels.
After brief weak high pressure and dry conditions late Wednesday
night into early Thursday, another low and associated front approach
and move for the late Thursday into Friday timeframe. This will
allow for a return of rain showers to the forecast. Slight chances
of thunderstorms are forecast for afternoon into evening hours both
Thursday and Friday with models indicating low level instability.
Daytime temperatures forecast to be near normal Tuesday, below
normal Wednesday, slightly above normal Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the area today and exits offshore
Sunday.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is
a slight chance of a rain shower this afternoon into early
evening, mainly north of the NYC terminals.
Winds will transition from NW or variable this morning hours to
a sea breeze this afternoon for some terminals, changing wind
direction to more southerly, while remaining more westerly for
others in the afternoon. Wind speeds remain near 5-10 kt much of
the TAF period. There will be a time period in the afternoon
when winds will be around 10 kt with some gusts up to 15-20 kt.
These wind gusts will subside by early evening as winds
transition to more westerly to southwesterly flow near 5-8 kt.
Once again, winds for some terminals away from NYC will have
wind speeds less than 5 kts with variable direction late
tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK and KLGA sea breeze timing could be off by 1-2 hours.
KEWR low chance for sea breeze early evening with NW winds
prevailing at KTEB.
Some gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon for KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. Potential sea breeze enhancement at KJFK late in
the afternoon with southerly winds increasing to 15-20 kt.
Sunday night: Chance of showers and MVFR. Southerly wind gusts
15-20 kt for some coastal terminals.
Monday: Showers and MVFR. Slight chance of thunderstorms
afternoon into evening. SE gusts 20-25 kt during the day. SE-S
gusts 15-20 kt in the evening.
Tuesday: Chance of showers. MVFR possible.
Wednesday: Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon into early evening. MVFR possible. SW wind
gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. Wind and waves
increase Sunday night ahead of the next low pressure system
approaching from the west. Gusts upwards of 25-30 kt become
possible on the ocean waters as early as 00Z Monday possibly
expanding to the sheltered waters during the afternoon. Winds
then diminish Monday night but waves on the ocean may be slow to
come down.
The marine forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday night will be a
time period of a relatively weak pressure gradient. This will keep
mainly below SCA conditions. Only exception is for Tuesday morning,
there is forecast to be SCA level ocean seas east of Fire Island
Inlet with otherwise sub-SCA conditions on all other waters. For
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, sub-SCA conditions are
forecast for all waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around 1 inch of rainfall is expected for western portions of
the CWA Monday afternoon into Monday night. This may result in
minor street and poor drainage flooding. While flash flooding is
not expected, it can not be completely ruled out.
Otherwise, no widespread hydrologic impacts expected through
the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Suffolk beaches
today while other beaches at a low risk. All beaches are under
a moderate risk Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$