000
FXUS61 KOKX 102154
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
554 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through tonight then moves
offshore Sunday. Low pressure and its associated frontal system
will impact the area Monday into Monday night. A series of
surface troughs will move across the region Tuesday through end
of the week as low pressure lingers over the northeast and
southeast Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some very limited instability exists early this evening in NW
flow across NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley. Isolated showers
have developed in NE PA into N NJ. These showers look to
potentially just graze portions of Essex, Union and possibly
Staten Island. The HRRR seems overdone with this activity and
have kept PoPs limited to just early this evening and at slight
chance. The isolated showers are shallow with 30 dBZ echo not
making it above -10C.

Otherwise, dry weather is expected tonight with high pressure
over the area. Lows tonight will be generally in the middle to
upper 50s. The NYC metro may not drop out of the low to middle
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds through the region on Sunday. With mid-level
ridging, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s with cooler
temperatures along the coast. Some spots in and around the NYC metro
may approach 90.

A surface low pressure system developing to the west on Sunday will
track east and approach the area Sunday night. This will allow for
some showers to develop across the region as the system gets closer
late Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday night will be in the low to
mid 60s with cooler temperatures along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The synoptic pattern of below normal heights and mean troughing over
the northeastern US looks to continue through the long term period.
The mean upper pattern on the ensembles continues to indicate another
cutoff upper level low moving across the Great Lakes region on
Monday. This upper low then slowly moves towards the northeast
Tuesday and then likely will lift across the northeast and New
England Wednesday into Thursday. The ensemble means then signal the
upper low opens up in southeast Canada, but carves out mean
troughing into the eastern US through the first half of next
weekend.

The cutoff low over the Great Lakes Monday will send a frontal
system into the area during the afternoon and evening. The front
should then slowly shift offshore Monday night into Tuesday. For the
rest of the week, a series of surface troughs move across the region
in association with low pressure lingering both at the surface and
aloft.

Probabilities for showers increase on Monday with the highest
potential occurring in the afternoon into the night. There are still
timing differences among the guidance, but a general consensus
brings in a band of showers and possible thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. The showers/storms then move eastward across
the rest of the area Monday night. The ECMWF has been a slower
member of the guidance suite, but has sped up with the 12z Sat Jun
10th model run. Probabilities for showers decrease from west to east
after 06z Tuesday with the associated cold front starting to move
offshore. CSU machine learning probabilities for severe
thunderstorms indicate a 5 percent chance of severe wind gusts (58
mph or greater). SPC currently has the region in just a general
thunderstorm outlook. The amount of instability is a bit uncertain
as there will likely be a decent amount of cloud cover limiting
significant heating.

Deeper moisture looks probable with this system as PWATs peak around
1.6 to 1.8 inches Monday evening. Locally heavy rainfall is a
possibility. It has been quite dry recently, but the highly
urbanized locations of northeast New Jersey and NYC metro could
still see some minor flooding with heavy downpours in any
thunderstorms. The overall system is progressive, so this should
limit any significant flooding threat on top of the recent dry
conditions.

The upper low moves towards the northeast Tuesday, but there does
not appear to be any well define surface features to focus any
showers/convection. Will limit PoPs to low chance inland and slight
near the coast, but these values could end up lower if recent trends
persist. The closer proximity of the upper low and a more define
surface trough moves through on Wednesday. This supports higher PoPs
in the afternoon and early evening, highest across the interior. A
few thunderstorms are possible with steeper lapse rates and
associated cold pocket aloft from the upper low. Chance for
showers may lower a bit Thursday before increasing again at the
end of next week, depending on how the next shortwave evolves
along with another surface trough or frontal boundary. A slight
chance persists into Saturday with lingering troughing aloft.

Temperatures look to run near normal for much of next week. The only
exception is on Thursday where highs could briefly get above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the area will move offshore Sunday.

Expecting mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is
a slight chance of a rain shower this afternoon into early
evening, mainly north of the NYC terminals.

W-NW winds are expected today for the interior terminals, while
coastal terminals may see late day seabreezes. Best chances for
Seabreezes will be at ISP, where the seabreeze is south of the
airport. JFK is in question now, with the seabreeze just south
of the terminals, but a NW flow with gusts to near 20 kt is
occurring. If JFK goes around it may not be until 5 or 6pm.
Any gusts end this evening. Afternoon seabreezes are expected
once again on Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KLGA sea breeze timing could be off by 1-2 hours.

Some gusts 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon for KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday: VFR. Potential sea breeze enhancement at KJFK late in
the afternoon with southerly winds increasing to 15-20 kt.

Sunday night: Chance of showers and MVFR after midnight.
Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt for some coastal terminals.

Monday: Showers and MVFR. Slight chance of thunderstorms
afternoon into evening. SE gusts 20-25 kt during the day. SE-S
gusts 15-20 kt in the evening.

Tuesday: Chance of showers. MVFR possible.

Wednesday: Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon into early evening. MVFR possible. SW wind
gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of rain.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. Wind and waves
increase Sunday night ahead of the next low pressure system
approaching from the west.

Winds increase late Sunday night into Monday ahead of approaching
frontal system. SCA gusts to around 25 kt are possible, especially
on the western ocean waters. Ocean seas will also build to around 5
ft, and could remain into Monday night. Conditions should then
remain below SCA levels with a relatively weak pressure gradient
Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a chance of a brief period of 5 ft
seas east of Moriches Inlet late Wednesday night into Thursday, but
otherwise sub SCA conditions continue on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon into Monday night. This may result in minor street
and poor drainage flooding, especially for the highly urbanized
locations. While flash flooding is not expected, it can not be
completely ruled out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic facing beaches
on Sunday. There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic facing
beaches on Monday due to strong S-SE flow and building seas to 5
ft.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...99/DS
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...99/DS
HYDROLOGY...99/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS