000
FXUS61 KOKX 111153
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today. Low pressure pushes a cold
front through the area Monday into Monday night. Another low
pressure weakens as it approaches the region Wednesday, moving
past by Wednesday night. Weak high pressure briefly moves in
for Thursday before moving offshore Thursday night. Another
trough and cold front then approach, eventually moving across
Thursday night into early Friday. While the low attached to this
weakens Friday into the start of next weekend, the associated
front will be slow to exit offshore, lingering not too far away.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to reflect
the most recent observations of temperature and dew point.
Mid-level ridging maximizes over the region today with surface
high pressure south of the area shifting further offshore. Light
S/SE flow today will provide for moisture advection into the
area through the afternoon. Ample sunshine will also allow for
a fair amount of surface heating allowing temperatures to rise
into the 80s everywhere with some locations in the NYC metro, NE
NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley approaching 90.
An increase in cloud cover is expected tonight ahead of a
surface frontal system developing to the west. Southerly flow
will bring the chance for patchy fog development for as well as
a slight chance of showers for the western portions of the area
later in the night and into Monday morning. Lows will be warm,
generally in the 60s. The NYC metro may not drop far below 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low pressure system positioned to the west will begin
to impact the area on Monday with strengthening southerly flow
and a chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day, mainly
for the immediate coast and westernmost areas initially. Much of
the area should remain dry during the morning with the
development of instability due to temperatures rising into the
middle to upper 70s resulting in the increased chance of showers
developing in the afternoon. The cold front approaches from the
west into the afternoon which looks to bring with it moderate to
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms, much of which won`t get
into the area until mid to late afternoon and early evening.
The front progresses through the area Monday night and into
Tuesday morning with moderate to locally heavy rainfall with at
least a slight chance of thunderstorms through the night. The
front looks to clear the area by Tuesday morning or early
afternoon where a secondary low pressure develops and moves into
the Gulf of Maine as the parent low spins over the Great Lakes.
The area will still be under an upper level trough on Tuesday
but dry out behind the initial cold frontal passage.
Temperatures as a result should rise into the upper 70s to low
80s with a chance of a lingering shower through the day.
Energy associated with the parent low slowly approaches the
area from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday morning which may
bring another round of showers, but the better chance of the
showers appears to be later at night Tuesday and into early
Wednesday. Lows will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Large cutoff upper level low will move farther northeast of the
region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Local area will be most
favorable area for synoptic lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening
with mid level positive vorticity advection and area being near left
front quad of upper level jet. At the surface, a weakening surface
parent low and associated cold front approach the local area,
eventually crossing through late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning. Rain showers are likely for much of the area Wednesday
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms with model forecasts
plan views of low level instability showing some increase during the
day with CAPE.
The cutoff upper level low moves farther northeast of the region
Thursday and eventually opens up into more of a shortwave trough
Thursday night as it continues to travel northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough approaches late
Thursday night and moves across the local area early Friday. At the
surface, weak high pressure briefly builds in Thursday before moving
offshore Thursday night into early Friday. Another low and weakening
cold front approach and eventually move across the area Thursday
night into early Friday. Mainly dry conditions forecast on Thursday
with exception of the afternoon when there is forecast to be a
chance of rain showers for interior locations. Higher chances of
showers encompass the entire forecast region for Thursday night into
early Friday morning.
Upper level trough and associate embedded shortwaves shift more
northeast of the region Friday into the start of next weekend. At
the surface, the front offshore may very well linger not too far
away going into the start of next weekend. Showers remain possible
Friday into Saturday. Could also have some low level instability and
CAPE with Friday afternoon as well, allowing for a slight chance of
thunderstorms afternoon into early evening.
Temperatures are not forecast to deviate much from normal values
for this time of year for Wednesday through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves offshore. Low pressure approaches Monday.
Lingering surface trough will make for potential for a few rain
showers from time to time, making for possible brief MVFR
conditions. Generally, more western areas will have relatively
higher probabilities for showers compared to eastern areas.
Since the probabilities for any showers is just slight chance,
left out of TAFs. Higher chances for showers develop after 12Z
Monday.
However, mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF
period.
Winds will be mainly S-SE for much of the coastal terminals
around 5 kts into this morning and then will increase to near
10-14 kt later this morning into the afternoon with some gusts
up to 20 kt. Southerly winds decrease to 5-10 kts with gusts
subsiding tonight. Some terminals will have variable wind
direction this morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Start and end of gusts could be off by a few hours.
MVFR possible with some showers. Chance of IFR on Monday.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Showers and MVFR. IFR possible at times. Chance of
thunderstorms, mainly late afternoon through evening. SE wind
gusts 20-25 kt daytime and S-SW wind gusts near 20 kt for the
evening.
Tuesday: Slight chance to chance of showers. MVFR possible at times.
Wednesday: Shower chances increase, becomingly likely for most
terminals. Slight chance of thunderstorms afternoon into early
evening. MVFR possible at times. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday: Chance of rain showers and MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds increase ahead of a surface low pressure system late today
with gusts upwards of 25 kt on the western and central oceans
through the night as seas rise to near 5 feet. A SCA is in
effect for these locations from 22Z today through 10Z Monday,
but this may need to be extended in time and possibly expanded
to the eastern ocean into Monday.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are expected for the entire area
by Tuesday and through Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon into Monday night. This may result in minor
street and poor drainage flooding, especially for the highly
urbanized locations. While flash flooding is not expected, it
can not be completely ruled out.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches on
Sunday, and a high risk on Monday due to strong S-SE flow and
seas building to 5 ft.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...