discussion on 2023-06-13

000
FXUS61 KOKX 131449
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --The region will be in-between disturbances today and tonight.
An upper level low along with a cold front will pivot through on
Wednesday. A second front or trough will pivot through Friday
and may linger into Saturday. Another frontal system is possible
Sunday into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front and upper low was moving to the east and northeast,
with the surface front about to exit southeastern Connecticut
and the twin forks of Long Island. Updated the sky cover based
on the visible satellite imagery and timing of the upper low
movement. Also updated for current conditions of temperatures,
dew points, and winds/gusts.

The region will catch a break today with regard to unsettled
weather with a lack of shortwaves features pivoting through.
Therefore it should remain dry with a good amount of sunshine.
Dewpoints should mix out on a W to WSW flow, especially later in
the day. Look for temperatures to get a good 5 degrees or so
warmer than the previous day with daytime max temps mainly in
the upper 70s, to around 80 along the coast and portions of
northeastern New Jersey.

For tonight look for partly cloudy and comfortable conditions
with somewhat lower humidity. More of a true southwest flow
develops ahead of next approaching trough / frontal system. This
should get dew points climbing a bit closer to daybreak early
Wed AM.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A closed 500 mb low rotates towards the area from the west during
Wed and should get either directly over or just north of the area
late in the day and for the evening. Forecast soundings are
indicating a little more in terms of instability.  Also mid level
lapse rates appear to be more favorable for convection and
thunderstorm activity. For now including chance of t-storms towards
midday and through the afternoon hours. The synoptic set up points
towards hail and wind gusts being potential hazards with any t-storm
activity. The potential for thunderstorms relative to last night
appears at this time to be a bit higher for Wed. With a good deal of
cloud cover arriving at some point Wed morning and hanging around
throughout the day, temps should remain in the 70s. Morning cloud
cover may put a lid on the severity potential with storms, and may
keep storms more sub-severe. Any breaks of sunshine could up the
ante in regard to t-storm activity and severity given the upper
level low / synoptic set up.

With the loss of diurnal heating and the main spoke of upper level
energy likely pivoting NE of the area, shower and t-storm activity
is expected to wane later Wed eve. With the upper level feature not
progressing out quickly, it looks like a rather difficult cloud
cover forecast for later Wed night. After mostly cloudy skies, cloud
cover may become more variable with breaks developing later at
night. Low temps should range in the upper 50s to around 60 at the
coast, with lower and middle 50s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.

The synoptic pattern of below normal heights and mean troughing over
the northeastern US likely continues through the long term period.

The large upper level low lifts into Northern New England on
Thursday allowing for a mainly dry and partly cloudy day for much of
the area with temperatures around average. Another piece of mid-
level energy continues to dig into the large-scale trough and
approaches the area from the northwest on Friday. This will allow
for another chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly into the
afternoon on Friday. A surface low develops over the area and
continues to spin over the area through the night as it moves
northeast. The low may be close enough to the area on Saturday that
some additional showers or thunderstorms develop into the afternoon.

Weak high pressure may build into the area by Saturday night as the
low shifts eastward. Though there may not be much of a forcing
mechanism for Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible as the area remains under a large-scale trough with cooler
mid-levels allowing for the potential of instability with surface
heating. Another frontal system may approach the area into the
beginning of next week but there remains significant uncertainty in
timing and location so kept PoPs at a chance.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Weak high pressure builds in during today.

VFR prevails for the city terminals, but MVFR elsewhere,
improving to VFR for the afternoon.

Westerly winds gust to around 20 kt, mainly in the afternoon.
WSW-SW winds diminish tonight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo MVFR cigs possible until around 16z. Timing of frequent
gust onset for KLGA/KJFK may be an hour or two off. Timing of
frequent gust ending for all four terminals may be an hour or
two off.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Shower chances increase, becomingly likely for most
terminals during the afternoon. TSRA possible during the late
morning and afternoon. MVFR, IFR possible at times. S to SW
winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: VFR. A slight chance of showers inland during the
afternoon.

Friday: Chance of showers, with thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon. MVFR possible.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --No changes to the seas at this time. Made minor adjustments to
the winds based on current conditions, as a cold front across
the eastern Long Island Sound, and the eastern ocean waters will
be exiting to the east this morning.

A W to WSW flow develops this afternoon with marginal small
craft conditions developing for the central and eastern ocean as
seas may briefly get close to 5 ft, and a few occasional gusts
up to 25 kt. Otherwise, sub small craft conditions are
expected. As a southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday look for a period of marginal small craft conditions.
Confidence remains too low at this time for small craft
conditions for the ocean and the south shore bays for Wed
afternoon, however a small craft advisory may be needed at some
point. Ocean seas Wed afternoon will be around 4 ft but gusts
may get to 25 kt, with a possible Ambrose jet for Wed afternoon.
Behind a cold front the winds will shift to the west Wed night
with ocean seas returning closer to 3 ft into Thu. Conditions
are expected to remain below SCA levels Thursday and into the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a moderate rip current risk for the NYC and Nassau
ocean beaches today, with a high rip current risk for the Suffolk
ocean beaches. On Wednesday there will be a high rip current risk
for all ocean beaches, especially towards midday and into the
afternoon for the NYC and Nassau beaches with possible Ambrose jet
development.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...