000
FXUS61 KOKX 131939
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure over the region moves east late tonight as a
frontal system approaches to the west. The low with an associated
cold front pass through the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Low pressure lingers over New England Thursday into
Saturday. Another front or trough will pivot through Friday and
may linger into Saturday. High pressure may briefly return on
Sunday before another frontal system is possible early next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A weak high amplitude ridge will be moving offshore tonight with
weak pressure at the surface. A closed low will be slowly drifting
east through the Great Lakes region. Tranquil weather is expected
tonight with increased cloudiness late. Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper closed low will track north of the region, through
upstate New York and New England Wednesday through Wednesday
night with a cold front moving through the local area late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. With the slow progression there
will be chances for precipitation from mid morning Wednesday
into late Wednesday night. The atmosphere is expected to quickly
destabilize with increasing CAPE Wednesday morning. In Addition
low level lapse rates will be steepening. Latest CAMs are
indicating the potential for a line of storms to develop across
the western zones in the morning and track east to northeast
through the day. Gusty winds are the main threat with a slight
chance that a few storms could produce some small hail as wet
bulb zero levels are under 10Kft. The Storm Prediction Center
has placed just about the entire forecast area in a marginal
risk for severe weather. Stronger storms may not reach too far
east across Long Island as a marine influenced airmass will be
in place with a strong low level cap in place Storms will be
more maintained with some weaker elevated CAPE. The treat of
stronger storms will diminish during the evening with the loss
of daytime heating. With the main threat being the wind gusts
have included this in the enhanced wording along with the
thunderstorms.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will be near seasonal
normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mean troughing and below normal heights are likely to continue
over the northeast and New England into the weekend. Ensemble
means signal potential for height rises and ridging to build
towards southeast Canada early next week. However, troughing may
linger long the east coast through Tuesday.
Closed upper level lo lifts towards northern New England on
Thursday. This will leave behind a flatter flow within the upper
trough. The flat flow and little to no lift supports a mainly
dry forecast. Highs on Thursday will be close to normal in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees. The models continue to signal
another vort max and associated upper low diving south on the
backside of the trough over the Great Lakes late Thursday and
Thursday night. The energy then approaches the region Friday,
potentially becoming another cutoff low as it slowly pivots
across the northeast into Saturday. There will likely be another
surface trough or frontal system, which currently looks to
enter the area on Friday. Showers likely develop in the morning
and continue into the afternoon and early evening. Instability
is still a bit uncertain given limited heating and onshore flow.
However, falling heights aloft should help promote enough
elevated instability to warrant a mention of thunder. The latest
guidance has trended towards a slower progression of the
associated surface low, which now looks to linger nearby as the
upper low remains over New England. Shower chances continue on
Saturday with a slight chance of thunder. Highs both Friday and
Saturday should end up slightly below normal in the 70s.
The low pressure departs Saturday night into Sunday with weak
high pressure building into the area. Cyclonic flow remains
aloft and despite weak forcing, showers are again possible in
the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be close to normal.
Another frontal system is possible early next week. Energy over
the Plains this weekend may work in tandem with lingering
troughing over the eastern seaboard. This could help sharpen the
trough and bring another low and frontal system early next
week. For now will cap PoPs off at low chance, but unsettled
conditions may continue into next week. Temperatures based on
model consensus could be slightly below normal early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Weak high pressure remains in place into this evening. Low
pressure then approaches on Wednesday.
VFR. W-WSW gust to around 20kt this afternoon. WSW-SW winds
diminish tonight. S Winds for Weds morning, bcmg SW in the
afternoon around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt along with showers and
the chance of thunderstorms.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional. End timing of frequent gusts may be
an hour or two off.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday PM: MVFR in TSRA possible. SW gusts 20-25kt.
Thursday: VFR. W gusts around 20kt.
Friday: VFR early, showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in
the afternoon.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra/tstm.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient force will remain across the forecast
waters tonight through Wednesday night as high pressure moves
east tonight as a weak frontal system and low move through the
waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds and seas are
expected to remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters tonight through Wednesday night. However, with a long
fetch southerly flow ahead of the low Wednesday ocean seas may
approach 5 feet. A relatively weak pressure gradient Thursday
into the weekend will lead to winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a high risk of rip currents for the Suffolk ocean
beaches into this evening.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at ocean beaches on
Wednesday. This is due to about 4 ft wind waves with little
swell component and southerly flow 10-15 kt. The risk could be
elevated to high if winds end up stronger in the afternoon.
There is a low risk of rip currents on Thursday as the flow
becomes more westerly with 3-4 ft seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS