discussion on 2023-06-14

000
FXUS61 KOKX 141133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low along with a cold front will pivot through today.
The upper level low reforms over the northeast into Friday and the
start of the weekend with low pressure lingering just north of the
area. Another frontal system will pivot through Friday and may
linger into Saturday. High pressure may briefly return on Sunday
with another frontal system possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No real changes or meaningful adjustments with this update as
latest trends are right in line with observations. Any early
morning patchy radiative fog along the Housatonic in No.
Fairfield, CT and in any other low lying spots will burn off
quickly.

The upper closed low will track north of the region, through
Upstate New York and New England today into tonight with a cold
front moving through the local area late this afternoon into
this evening. With the slow progression there will be chances
for precipitation from mid morning through this evening. Thus,
look for mostly cloudy skies, with more breaks of sun further
east this morning. The atmosphere is expected to quickly
destabilize with increasing CAPE this morning. Also, low level
lapse rates will be steepening. Latest CAMs are indicating the
potential for a line or cluster of storms to develop across the
western zones in the morning and track east northeast
throughout the day. Gusty winds are the main threat, with a
chance that storms could also produce hail. The lack of steeper
mid level lapse rates likely will preclude larger hail. Thus,
SPC has placed the vast majority of the forecast area in a
marginal risk for severe weather. Stronger storms may not reach
too far east across Long Island as a marine influenced airmass
looks to be in place with a strong low level cap. Storms will be
more maintained with some weaker elevated CAPE. The threat of
stronger storms will diminish during the evening with the loss
of daytime heating. The main threat with any storms should be
strong wind gusts, and thus have maintained this enhanced
wording in association with the thunderstorms along with the
mention of small hail.

With the upper level feature not progressing out quickly, it looks
like a rather difficult cloud cover forecast for later Wed night.
After mostly cloudy skies, cloud cover may become more variable with
breaks developing later in the night. Temperatures today and
tonight will be near seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper level low lifts towards northern New England on
Thursday. This will leave behind a flatter flow within the upper
trough. The flat flow and little to no lift supports a mainly dry
forecast. BUFKIT soundings indicate a shallow layer of higher RH
around and just above 5kft. Thus, other than some diurnally driven
cu, expect mostly sunny skies to give way to partly cloudy skies.
The models continue to signal another vort max and associated upper
low diving south on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes
late Thursday and Thursday night. This should eventually redevelop
the trough and upper level low over the northeast. Therefore clouds
should begin to increase late Thu. night in advance of the
redeveloping trough.

Highs on Thursday will be close to normal in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will range in the middle and upper
50s across the interior, to the lower and middle 60s in the NYC
metro and mainly around 60 along coastal sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.

Large-scale troughing continues to dominate the long term. ANother
round of mid-level energy rounds the base of the broad trough over
the Northeast forcing a weak surface frontal system to develop to
the west. This will be the focus for another round of rain on
Friday. Some instability may develop to allow for the occurrence of
some embedded thunderstorms as well. As the energy pivots through
the area, the surface low pressure system broadens and continues to
spin as it slowly moves toward the New England coast in Saturday.
Additional showers remain possible on the back side of the low as it
remains in fairly close proximity to the area with the best chances
for rain on Saturday being for northern areas.

The low slowly pulls away to the east as mid-level heights slowly
rise. A trough attempts to build in but additional pieces of mid-
level energy approach the area from the northwest allowing for the
trough to be subtly reinforced Sunday and into the beginning of next
week. Models diverge as to how the next frontal systems approach the
area into early next week but at a minimum, it appears that the
large-scale troughing will continue.

Temperatures for the long term will remain generally at or below
average each day with highs generally in the 70s each day and lows
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure approaches from the west during the day.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Periods of sub-VFR are
possible today in any TSRA or SHRA. TSRA becomes possible after
16Z but likely not until after 18Z. Condition then expected to
dry out behind the cold front after 00Z. MVFR cigs are possible
for KSWF tonight.

Light S wind this morning, becoming S-SW in the afternoon
around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Wind shifts W this evening and
overnight behind the cold front.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of thunderstorms and any sub-VFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. W wind gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR early, showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in
the afternoon.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra/tstm.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front today. Look for a
period of small craft conditions this afternoon for the ocean and
marginal small craft gusts for the western south shore bays in
response to a possible Ambrose jet. Prevailing small craft gusts
should end during the evening. Ocean seas this afternoon will be
around 4 ft. Behind a cold front the winds will shift to the west
Wed night with ocean seas returning closer to 3 ft into Thu and Thu
night. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday
and through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents at the western ocean beaches of
Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau today. This is due to 4 ft wind waves
and a southerly flow, which may get to 20 kt this afternoon. Thus
the risk has been elevated to high towards the late morning and
afternoon further west. A moderate risk seems prudent at this time
further east for the Suffolk beaches with little swell component and
winds likely closer to 10-15 kt.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday as the flow
becomes more westerly closer to 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...