000
FXUS61 KOKX 141453
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low along with a cold front will pivot through
the region today. The upper level low redevelops over the
Northeast into Friday and the start of the weekend with low
pressure remaining just north of the area. Another frontal
system will pivot through Friday and may linger into Saturday.
High pressure may briefly return on Sunday with another frontal
system possible early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Closed low trough swings east into the Northeast today, with an
associated cold front tracking through the region late this
afternoon.
At 12z, WPC analysis had the 996 mb surface low and attendant
cold front across west central Pennsylvania, with a relatively
wide and broken band of showers out ahead of it in a moist
southerly flow. Farther east, daytime heating and clearing
should be able to destabilize conditions across the local region
into this afternoon, with BUFKIT soundings progging up to 1000
J/kg of CAPE developing along with modest forcing. Latest CAMs
continue to indicate a line or cluster of storms to develop
across the western zones late this morning, tracking east
through the region this afternoon and early evening. Marginal
effective bulk shear magnitudes of around 30 kt may be enough to
support a few stronger thunderstorms, with isolated damaging
wind gusts the primary hazard, and perhaps small hail as a
secondary given the cold pool moving overhead. SPC has placed
the vast majority of the forecast area in a marginal risk for
severe weather, corresponding to the possibility of an isolated
severe t-storm or two. Any stronger storms may not be able to
sustain themselves pushing east across Long Island though as a
marine influenced air mass looks to be in place with a strong
low level cap that should help to weaken the convection as it
pushes east and offshore.
While any storm also has the potential to produce brief heavy
downpours, the progression of cells and lack of significant deep
moisture should preclude most flood concerns. Nuisance flooding
of urban and poor drainage areas will be possible however.
The front clears the region this evening, with drying conditions
behind the passage. With the upper level feature not progressing
out quickly, it looks like a rather difficult cloud cover
forecast tonight. After mostly cloudy skies, cloud cover may
become more variable with breaks developing later in the night.
Temperatures today and tonight will be near seasonal normals,
with highs largely in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the 50s
to around 60.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper level low lifts towards northern New England on
Thursday. This will leave behind a flatter flow within the upper
trough. The flat flow and little to no lift supports a mainly dry
forecast. BUFKIT soundings indicate a shallow layer of higher RH
around and just above 5kft. Thus, other than some diurnally driven
cu, expect mostly sunny skies to give way to partly cloudy skies.
The models continue to signal another vort max and associated upper
low diving south on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes
late Thursday and Thursday night. This should eventually redevelop
the trough and upper level low over the northeast. Therefore clouds
should begin to increase late Thu. night in advance of the
redeveloping trough.
Highs on Thursday will be close to normal in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will range in the middle and upper
50s across the interior, to the lower and middle 60s in the NYC
metro and mainly around 60 along coastal sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Large-scale troughing continues to dominate the long term. ANother
round of mid-level energy rounds the base of the broad trough over
the Northeast forcing a weak surface frontal system to develop to
the west. This will be the focus for another round of rain on
Friday. Some instability may develop to allow for the occurrence of
some embedded thunderstorms as well. As the energy pivots through
the area, the surface low pressure system broadens and continues to
spin as it slowly moves toward the New England coast in Saturday.
Additional showers remain possible on the back side of the low as it
remains in fairly close proximity to the area with the best chances
for rain on Saturday being for northern areas.
The low slowly pulls away to the east as mid-level heights slowly
rise. A trough attempts to build in but additional pieces of mid-
level energy approach the area from the northwest allowing for the
trough to be subtly reinforced Sunday and into the beginning of next
week. Models diverge as to how the next frontal systems approach the
area into early next week but at a minimum, it appears that the
large-scale troughing will continue.
Temperatures for the long term will remain generally at or below
average each day with highs generally in the 70s each day and lows
in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure center passes by to the north with troughs
shifting through the terminals this afternoon and evening.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Periods of sub-VFR are
possible today in any TSRA or SHRA. TSRA becomes possible after
16Z but more likely not until after 18Z. Conditions then
expected to dry out behind a trough/cold front after around 00Z.
MVFR cigs are possible for KSWF tonight.
S winds 10-15 kt, becoming S-SW in the afternoon around 15kt
with gusts 20-25kt. Wind shifts W this evening and overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible before 18-19z. Amendments
possible for timing of thunderstorms and any sub- VFR conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. W wind gusts around 20kt.
Friday: VFR early, showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in
the afternoon.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra/tstm.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front today. Look for a
period of small craft conditions this afternoon for the ocean and
marginal small craft gusts for the western south shore bays in
response to a possible Ambrose jet. Prevailing small craft gusts
should end during the evening. Ocean seas this afternoon will be
around 4 ft. Behind a cold front the winds will shift to the west
tonight with ocean seas returning closer to 3 ft into Thu and
Thu night.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday and
through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents at the western ocean beaches of
Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau today. This is due to 4 ft wind waves
and a southerly flow, which may get to 20 kt this afternoon. Thus
the risk has been elevated to high towards the late morning and
afternoon further west. A moderate risk seems prudent at this time
further east for the Suffolk beaches with little swell component and
winds likely closer to 10-15 kt.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday as the flow
becomes more westerly closer to 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...