000
FXUS61 KOKX 141806
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
206 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low along with a cold front will pivot through
the region today. The upper level low redevelops over the
Northeast into Friday and the start of the weekend with low
pressure remaining just north of the area. Another frontal
system will pivot through Friday and may linger into Saturday.
High pressure may briefly return on Sunday with another frontal
system possible early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Closed low trough swings east into the Northeast today, with an
associated cold front tracking through the region late this
afternoon and this evening.
Broken line of showers and thunderstorms is advancing east
through the region at 1730z, with the front edge pushing east of
NYC into Long Island and SE Connecticut. While much of the
activity so far has remained below severe limits, a few storms
have been strong, with small hail and wind gusts around 40 kt.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates the convection is moving into an area
of steep low level lapse rates and modest SBCAPE values
1000-1500 J/kg, which should be enough to sustain this activity
as it moves east, especially across southern Connecticut.
At 15z, WPC analysis had the 997 mb surface low and attendant
cold front across Upstate NY and north central PA, with a
relatively wide and broken band of showers well out ahead of it
in a moist southerly flow. Latest CAMs continue to indicate a
this cluster tracking east through the early evening hours, with
rain chances continuing through then. Marginal effective bulk
shear magnitudes of around 30 kt may be enough to support a few
stronger thunderstorms, with isolated damaging wind gusts the
primary hazard, and perhaps small hail as a secondary given the
cold pool moving overhead. SPC has placed the vast majority of
the forecast area in a marginal risk for severe weather,
corresponding to the possibility of an isolated severe t-storm
or two. Any stronger storms may not be able to sustain
themselves pushing east across Long Island though as a marine
influenced air mass looks to be in place with a strong low level
cap that should help to weaken the convection as it pushes east
and offshore.
While any storm also has the potential to produce brief heavy
downpours, the progression of cells and lack of significant deep
moisture should preclude most flood concerns. Nuisance flooding
of urban and poor drainage areas will be possible however.
The front clears the region this evening, with drying conditions
behind the passage. With the upper level feature not progressing
out quickly, it looks like a rather difficult cloud cover
forecast tonight. After mostly cloudy skies, cloud cover may
become more variable with breaks developing later in the night.
Temperatures today and tonight will be near seasonal normals,
with highs largely in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the 50s
to around 60.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper level low lifts towards northern New England on
Thursday. This will leave behind a flatter flow within the upper
trough. The flat flow and little to no lift supports a mainly dry
forecast. BUFKIT soundings indicate a shallow layer of higher RH
around and just above 5kft. Thus, other than some diurnally driven
cu, expect mostly sunny skies to give way to partly cloudy skies.
The models continue to signal another vort max and associated upper
low diving south on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes
late Thursday and Thursday night. This should eventually redevelop
the trough and upper level low over the northeast. Therefore clouds
should begin to increase late Thu. night in advance of the
redeveloping trough.
Highs on Thursday will be close to normal in the upper 70s to around
80 degrees. Lows Thursday night will range in the middle and upper
50s across the interior, to the lower and middle 60s in the NYC
metro and mainly around 60 along coastal sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.
Large-scale troughing continues to dominate the long term. ANother
round of mid-level energy rounds the base of the broad trough over
the Northeast forcing a weak surface frontal system to develop to
the west. This will be the focus for another round of rain on
Friday. Some instability may develop to allow for the occurrence of
some embedded thunderstorms as well. As the energy pivots through
the area, the surface low pressure system broadens and continues to
spin as it slowly moves toward the New England coast in Saturday.
Additional showers remain possible on the back side of the low as it
remains in fairly close proximity to the area with the best chances
for rain on Saturday being for northern areas.
The low slowly pulls away to the east as mid-level heights slowly
rise. A trough attempts to build in but additional pieces of mid-
level energy approach the area from the northwest allowing for the
trough to be subtly reinforced Sunday and into the beginning of next
week. Models diverge as to how the next frontal systems approach the
area into early next week but at a minimum, it appears that the
large-scale troughing will continue.
Temperatures for the long term will remain generally at or below
average each day with highs generally in the 70s each day and lows
in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure center passes by to the north with troughs
shifting through the terminals this afternoon and evening.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Periods of sub-VFR this afternoon
in sct TSTMs until around 21-00z. VFR otherwise thereafter this
evening and overnight.
S-SW winds this afternoon around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt. Winds
shift W this evening with gusts subsiding. West winds around 10kt
for Thursday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for timing of thunderstorms and any sub-VFR
conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: VFR. W wind gusts around 20kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR in the morning with a chance of showers, then
showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in the afternoon.
Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra/tstm both days
Monday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front today. Look for a
period of small craft conditions this afternoon for the ocean and
marginal small craft gusts for the western south shore bays in
response to a possible Ambrose jet. Prevailing small craft gusts
should end during the evening. Ocean seas this afternoon will be
around 4 ft. Behind a cold front the winds will shift to the west
tonight with ocean seas returning closer to 3 ft into Thu and
Thu night.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday and
through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents at the western ocean beaches of
Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau today. This is due to 4 ft wind waves
and a southerly flow, which may get to 20 kt this afternoon. Thus
the risk has been elevated to high towards the late morning and
afternoon further west. A moderate risk seems prudent at this time
further east for the Suffolk beaches with little swell component and
winds likely closer to 10-15 kt.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Thursday as the flow
becomes more westerly closer to 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...