000
FXUS61 KOKX 142048
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
448 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low and associated cold front moves through the
region into tonight, before weak high pressure briefly builds in
on Thursday. Weak low pressure returns and remains in the area
Friday through Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday
night into Monday. Another low moves into the area late Monday
and remains into midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Closed low trough swinging east into the Northeast will push an
associated cold front through the region into this evening.
The advancing surface boundary is making its way east through
Pennsylvania late this afternoon, eventually pushing through the
region this evening. Broken line of showers and thunderstorms
continues to advance east through the region at 20z, with the
front edge moving into eastern LI and SE CT. While much of the
activity in this first band has begun to weaken as it runs into
a more stable environment, a few storms may still become strong
to severe, with small hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.
CAMs continue to indicate additional convective activity tracking
east into the evening hours, with rain chances continuing through
then. Marginal effective bulk shear magnitudes of around 30 kt
may be enough to support a few stronger thunderstorms, with
isolated damaging wind gusts the primary hazard, and perhaps
small hail as a secondary given the cold pool moving overhead.
While any storm also has the potential to produce brief heavy
downpours, the progression of cells and lack of significant deep
moisture should preclude most flood concerns. Nuisance flooding
of urban and poor drainage areas will be possible however.
Winds veer westerly behind the fropa, with clouds breaking and
skies largely clearing overnight. Temperatures tonight will be
near seasonal normals, with lows in the 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As one upper low exits, another disturbance enters. A second
wave dives south on the backside of the trough, with the upper
low expected to close off over Upstate New York by Friday.
Before then, a fairly flat flow with very weak surface high
pressure nosing in from the south supports a predominantly dry
forecast Thursday.
BUFKIT soundings indicate a shallow layer of higher RH around
and just above 5 kft, supporting some diurnally driven cu, with
sunshine expected otherwise. Highs on Thursday will be close to
normal in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows Thursday
night will range in the middle and upper 50s across the
interior, to the lower and middle 60s in the NYC metro and
mainly around 60 along coastal sections.
Guidance continues to signal another vort max and associated
upper low diving south on the backside of the trough over the
Great Lakes late Thursday and Thursday night. This should
eventually redevelop the trough and upper level low over the
Northeast into Friday. Therefore clouds should begin to increase
late Thu. night in advance of this. Largely stayed close to a
superblend of available guidance for this update.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The long term period will be mainly unsettled as an upper level
longwave trough and a closed low remain across the northeast
and into the mid Atlantic region Friday into the middle of next
week. A series of energy packets rotates through the upper
trough, as weak low pressure remains in the vicinity. The only
potentially dry time frame will be Sunday night into Monday,
however, this is uncertain given the placement and timing of the
upper trough and energy. While precipitation will not be
occurring the entire long term period, with the uncertainty,
there are chances through much of the long term. Chances for
thunderstorms will be diurnally driven most afternoons and into
the evening. Finally, temperatures will be near to below normal
through the long term. With all the uncertainties followed the
NBM.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure center passes by to the north with a trough or cold
front shifting through the terminals this evening.
Thunderstorms anticipated until around 21-23z for most terminals.
Showers still possible for a couple hours thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be only a low chance by then. Mainly VFR outside
of showers/tstms, but mainly MVFR in showers/tstms.
W-WSW winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt for the remainder of this
afternoon with a chance of 35-40kt gusts in/near a thunderstorm.
W winds closer to 10 kt with gusts subsiding this evening. West
winds around 10kt remain for Thursday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance of gusts 35kt+ in/near thunderstorms. Still a low chance of a
thunderstorm after 22z, but not high enough to include in the TAFs.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon: VFR. W wind gusts around 20kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR in the morning with a chance of showers, then
showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in the afternoon.
Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra/tstm both days
Monday: Mainly VFR, chc PM shra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Occasional southerly gusts up to 25 kt remain possible into
early this evening on ocean waters with seas around 4 ft. Behind
a cold front passage this evening, the winds will shift to the
west tonight with ocean seas returning closer to 3 ft Thu and
Thu night.
Otherwise, with weak low pressure in the vicinity of the waters
Friday through Sunday, and then weak high pressure Monday,
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters Friday through Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a high risk of rip currents at the western ocean
beaches of Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau, and a moderate risk
for the Suffolk county beaches, through early this evening.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches Thursday and Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...