000
FXUS61 KOKX 151448
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1048 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure positions itself south of the area today and
tonight. A frontal system and associated low pressure approach
Friday, with the frontal system passing through Friday night.
Weak low pressure remains in the area Saturday into Sunday. High
pressure then briefly returns Sunday night into Monday. Another
low moves into the area Tuesday and remains into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clouds are increasing across the region with cold pool aloft and diurnal heating. Slight adjustments were made to forecast max temperatures but still expected to range mainly from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Thin veil of smoke from Canadian wildfires seen on GOES16 visible satellite west of the area and south of Long Island and this, according to the forecast model HRRR, is expected to remain mostly aloft without much of any concentration near the surface today. The closed upper level low lifts towards Northern New England today. This will leave behind a flatter flow within the upper trough. The flat flow and little to no lift supports a dry forecast. BUFKIT soundings continue to indicate a shallow layer of higher RH around and just above 5kft. Thus, expecting partly sunny skies overall on average today for much of the area. Afterwards, the models continue to show another vort max / shortwave digging and diving south on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. This should eventually redevelop the trough and upper level low over the northeast. Therefore clouds should begin to increase late tonight in advance of the redeveloping trough. Most highs today will be close to normal in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows tonight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will range in the middle and upper 50s across the interior, to the lower and middle 60s in the NYC metro and mainly around 60 along coastal sections.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With the upper level low and mid level forcing approaching Friday morning look for a good amount of cloud cover. There is some uncertainty on precise timing of the arrival of the forcing mechanisms to generate shower and potentially embedded t-storm activity. Taking a model consensus approach yields likely showers with a t-storm chance towards the afternoon and evening. At this time it appears that much of the instability will be more elevated than surface based, but this could change if more sunshine can get through earlier in the day. Thus the current thinking is that thunderstorm activity should primarily be sub severe. Have kept out any enhanced wording at this time, but small hail and gusty winds may be included with subsequent updates. The 500 mb height minimum then positions itself over the area Fri night into early Sat am. Although there will be the loss of diurnal heating into Fri night, there will likely still be enough forcing to drive high end chance to low end likely showers. Temperatures should be below normal Friday with highs mainly in the middle and upper 70s due mainly to more pronounced cloud cover. Lows Friday night will be more of the same with lows primarily in the middle and upper 50s across the interior and more rural locations, and near 60 or in the lower 60s for the NYC metro and along coastal communities. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble means (GEFS/EPS) continue to depict a blocky pattern and mean troughing over the eastern CONUS with a series of cutoff lows moving through New England. Ridging then tries to build in from the central plains by the end of next week but falls short, with mean troughing shifting slightly east, but still influencing the area. Thus, continued near to below normal temperatures and unsettled weather for the long term. The NBM was followed closely for this update. Saturday into Sunday looks to be the most active day(s) at this point. A deep upper low advertised by the global models approaches the local area with an attendant sfc low and cold front passing through the area by Saturday afternoon. Precipitation chances increase through the day on Saturday as the cold front and upper low approach, with model soundings showing around ~500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-30kts of bulk shear. So thunderstorms are likely for the area Saturday afternoon as well, with timing and coverage coming into better focus over the next few days as CAMs cover the timeframe. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities had a 5% severe probability for parts of the area, but have backed off this on the most recent run. NBM probabilities of (any) thunder are in the 40-50% range for Saturday afternoon and have increased slightly, especially over the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT over the past few cycles. The low and associated cold front move east of the area by early Sunday, though the upper low is slow to move out. Thus, Sunday looks to be cloudy and showery--at least for the first part of the day. Drier air advects in behind the system by Sunday night, and with weak ridging aloft, Monday looks to be dry and seasonable. The Tuesday - Thursday period again looks unsettled, with an upper low approaching from the mid south, along with a series of vort maxes from New England. Precipitation chances again increase Tuesday through late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak high pressure approaches from the southwest. VFR thru tngt. Shwrs possible Fri aftn with MVFR. NW winds becoming WSW 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20kts through 00Z. Will increase the haze aloft fcst for the NYC terminals today due to the incoming smoke. Potential exists for RED but confidence is too low with the algorithm still producing only GREEN. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional than frequent. The JFK, LGA, and EWR afternoon haze forecast for today is MODERATE (YELLOW). OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: Mainly VFR in the morning with a chance of showers, then showers bcmg likely with chc tstms and MVFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun: VFR becoming MVFR with chc PM shra/tstm both days Monday: Mainly VFR, slight chc PM shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The winds will be mainly out of the west today with with ocean seas 3 to 4 ft today, and closer to 3 ft tonight. Ahead of the next approaching frontal system on Friday look for more of a southerly flow with ocean seas remaining around 3 ft. The winds will then shift to the west later Fri night with sub small craft conditions from Saturday through Monday with weak low pressure in the vicinity Saturday and Sunday, and weak high pressure building in for Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through mid next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Friday. Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached for the western south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau Friday and Saturday evening. At this time advisory level coastal flooding is not anticipated. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DBR NEAR TERM...JE/JM SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DBR AVIATION...JMC/DBR MARINE...JE/DBR HYDROLOGY...JE/DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...