000
FXUS61 KOKX 162359
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the DelMarva going into tonight,
moving south of Long Island. The low will then slowly move into
the Gulf of Maine Saturday into Saturday night. Low pressure
heads east Sunday into early next week, with a weak low
pressure trough lingering into Monday and Tuesday. High pressure
will otherwise dominate into much of the week. A weak low to
the south may affect the area on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Made adjustments to temperatures, dew points, and PoPs through
the evening and into the first half of tonight to reflect the
most recent observations. Showers have moved out of the area to
the east with some additional pop-up showers developing to the
west over the interior Lower Hudson Valley. Enhanced stability
from earlier rainfall will limit the growth of these showers
into the evening.
Preferred the HRRR with regards to convection forecast.
Upper level trough approaches the region through this evening with
height falls increasing, increasing synoptic lift. The trough
axis moves across tonight with continued height falls. At the
surface, SE to S winds increase ahead of an approaching area of
low pressure from the DelMarva. The winds gradually become
lighter and more northerly tonight as the low passes south of
Long Island.
Otherwise, less vast range for lows tonight, upper 50s to lower
60s. Also, late tonight with lulls in rain shower activity and
moisture laden grounds as well as light winds, have forecast
patchy fog as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the closed off upper level low moves into the
region Saturday while at the surface, low pressure slowly moves
into the Gulf of Maine. The surface low could also slightly
deepen as shown by some forecast models.
Positive vorticity advection increases across the region Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. The center of the upper level low
and max positive vorticity move east of the region Saturday night.
Chances for showers will be highest across more eastern sections,
generally across Southern CT and Long Island especially during the
afternoon Saturday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the day with the greater chance of thunderstorms in the mid
afternoon into early evening with the cold pool aloft.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease Saturday
especially by mid to late evening. All showers taper off overnight.
For high temperatures Saturday, went cooler with 3/4 consensus of
raw model data and 1/4 consensus of MOS data. Used a consensus of
MOS data for lows Saturday night. Temperatures will average below
normal for this time of year.
With HRRR low level smoke increasing across western sections,
think there will likely be some resulting haze as the smoke gets
dispersed and less concentrated from the Canadian wildfires.
This will be from the NW flow and across western sections of the
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A gradual pattern change appears in the offing as a closed low over
New England and the Canadian Maritimes pulls to the east and heights
rise aloft, especially later in the week. Lingering troughiness in
the wake of the departure of the closed low may still lead to
chances for showers and possibly a tstm Mon into Tue, otherwise sfc
high pressure should be in control, with temps near to slightly
below normal.
A warmup to above normal temps should take place Thu-Fri as an upper
high finally builds into the Northeast later this week, with highs
in the 80s in most places. With some guidance showing a weak cutoff
low to the south gradually drifting N toward the area, Friday also
has chance PoP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes just south of us tonight, reaching south of
Cape Cod Saturday morning.
Conds lower to MVFR this evening, and in some cases east of the
city, IFR. Showers anticipated overnight for KISP/KGON, but not
completely out of question elsewhere.
Difficult to time wind direction shifts tonight as the center
of low pressure passes nearby. Mostly E-NE this evening, then
backing NE-N, then N-NW by Saturday morning. Speeds should at
least remain below 10 kt. NW winds for Saturday, which will
increase to around 15 kt in the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt
and should be strong enough to prevent sea breezes.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of onset/end of MVFR could be off by a couple of hours.
Timing of wind shifts may be off by a few hours, however winds
should remain below 10kt through tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sat night: Mostly VFR. CHC for MVFR in -shra east of the city.
Sun: VFR. A slight chc for pm -shra/tstm east of the city.
Mon-Tue: Slight chc of MVFR at times in shwrs both afternoons.
Otherwise VFR.
Wed: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient in the short term remains weak enough to
keep seas and winds below SCA thresholds for all forecast waters
through Saturday night. However, within any thunderstorms, there
could be brief gusty winds and higher seas.
Sub SCA levels are forecast with weak departing low pressure on
Sunday, and weak high pressure building in thereafter.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals have decreased compared to previous forecast.
Storm total rainfall forecast near 3/4 of an inch for Eastern
Long Island and Southeast CT with otherwise near 1/2 inch. Minor
flooding will be possible with some thunderstorms in poor
drainage and low lying areas.
No hydrologic impacts are expected from Sunday through Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents this weekend with around
3 ft waves with 7 to 8 second dominant period expected. NW flow
with winds Saturday and the winds become more southerly Sunday.
Minor coastal flood benchmarks are likely to be reached for the
western south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau for this
evening`s high tide, and possibly for Saturday evening as well.
Tidal departures will run around 1 to 1 1/2 ft, with some
locations having departures closer to 2 ft. Latest Stevens
Guidance looks to be running slightly above observed values so
think only some of the gauges in South Shore Bays reach minor
coastal flood benchmarks with no other coastal flooding
expected. Saturday`s forecast water levels are a little less
than tonight and with NW flow think water levels will end up
being lower than tonight as well, so chances for minor coastal
flooding Saturday night for South Shore Bays is quite low.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/MW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...