000
FXUS61 KOKX 171143
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly head northeastward into the Gulf of Maine
Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure then begins to
build into the region on Sunday as the low departs. A weak low
pressure trough lingers into Monday. High pressure then
dominates Tuesday through Thursday. A weak low to the south may
affect the area on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers have increased in coverage across the eastern portions
of the CWA on a line from MTP to GON within an instability axis
per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Expect this activity to continue as
the surface low heads northeast over the next few hours. While
ETNLN lighting data has not shown any activity yet, would not
be surprised to see a few strokes embedded with any of the more
convective elements as the morning progresses. Further to the
west, a few showers have popped across central CT, but have
quickly diminished. The previous discussion follows.
Latest MSAS analysis depicts sfc low located off central NJ
with a warm front located southeast of Long Island. Aloft,
evident on the GOES- 16 6.19 WV channel is a cutoff low over New
England with embedded shortwaves rotating through the mean flow
through the local area. KOKX 88D also shows some scattered
showers across portions of New London County, CT north of the
low pressure center, moving slowly northeast attm.
The sfc low heads northeast today and away from the area by later
this morning. Clouds begin to scour out today from west to east, as
the low slowly pulls away, and some mid level dry air advects in
from the northwest. However, clouds and isolated to scattered
showers are likely to continue through the afternoon, especially
across eastern Long Island, CT and the Lower Hudson Valley,
given the closer proximity to the sfc low and cold pool aloft.
Recent high res guidance/CAMs have trended down the
precipitation potential, and areal coverage, for the afternoon
as the upper low and associated cold pool move slowly northeast.
Have trended down precipitation amounts accordingly, with
highest amounts across the easternmost portions of the CWA, and
it`s plausible that the western CWA remains totally dry. A
slight chance of thunder is also possible during the afternoon
where precipitation does break out, again especially across CT
and eastern Long Island, where model soundings show a bit of
elevated instability. Any showers/thunderstorms come to an end
by later this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Temperatures remain below normal under the northwesterly flow,
in the mid 70s to near 80 across the urban corridor.
Latest/00Z HRRR smoke run does continue to show low level smoke
increasing across western sections of the CWA during the afternoon
as a result of the continued Canadian wildfires and northerly flow.
This may result in some hazy skies across portions of the area
during the afternoon, and have updated the weather grids to
reflect this. The area of smoke then advects south of the area
late Saturday into early Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper low over the Gulf of Maine slowly works northeastward,
a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure begins to build in
from the Ohio Valley. This should result in a mostly dry day
with across the area, under light northerly winds. There
remains a slight chance of an afternoon instability shower
across eastern CT with a lingering surface trough to the north,
though confidence is low in any shower development given recent
CAM trends. Highs will be similar, to a few degrees warmer,
than on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed upper low will be departing the Canadian Maritimes Monday
as heights gradually rise into the northeast Monday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge becomes established.
Weak surface troughs will remain in the vicinity Monday into
Wednesday, and with upper energy moving through there will be
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior.
With low pressure to the south and ridging in place, the trend has
been toward a drier forecast for the end of the week, and will have
only slight chances, although Friday may end up being dry.
Temperatures will be below normal levels Monday through Wednesday,
and then a warmup begins Thursday with temperatures returning to
near normal to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks slowly north today, through
today, becoming nearly stationary along the Maine coast
tonight.
VFR. There is a chance of showers, mainly east of the New York
City metro terminals, this afternoon. The best chances will be
near KGON with brief MVFR possible. A few showers will be
possible near the New York City terminals, however, chances are
low, so not included in the TAFs. A rumble of thunder is
possible, however, chances are low and not mentioned in the
forecast.
Northwest winds increase this morning and become gusty, with
timing onset uncertain. Occasional peak gusts may be a few knots
higher this afternoon. Timing of the end of gusts uncertain,
and gusts may continue into early this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a low chance of showers this afternoon with no impacts to
visibilities or ceilings. A rumble of thunder can not be ruled out.
Peak wind gusts may be a few kts higher this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sun: VFR. A chc for pm -shra northeast of the NYC terminals.
Mon-Tue: VFR. A chc of shwrs, possibly a tstm each afternoon
northwest of the NYC terminals.
Wed: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through Sunday as high pressure
builds over the water. For the LI Sound and the easternmost
ocean zones, there could be brief gusty winds this afternoon
with any thunderstorms that do develop.
With high pressure dominating Monday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flood benchmarks are likely to be reached again during
tonight`s high tide cycle for the south shore back bays in Nassau
and Queens. Tidal departures are still near 1 to 1 1/2 ft, though a
bit lower than Friday night`s high tide. NYHOPS guidance has 50th
percentiles near or in minor flood stage and 90th percentiles into
minor for several locations. NYHOPS performance from Friday night
had the 50th percentile close to, or just short of the observations
across these locations, and so was used as the basis for this
forecast. Despite weak northerly flow forecast this evening, will go
ahead with a statement for Nassau and Queens for tonight`s high tide
cycle.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches with around 3 ft waves with a 6 to 8 second
dominant period expected under northwest flow.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...