000
FXUS61 KOKX 171453
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will slowly head northeastward into the Gulf of
Maine today into tonight. High pressure then begins to build
into the region on Sunday as the low departs. A weak low
pressure trough lingers into Monday. High pressure then
dominates Tuesday through Thursday. A weak low to the south may
affect the area on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Anomalously strong closed upper low will pivot through the
region today, with surface trough developing and pivoting
through the area.
Morning rain shower activity has pushed east of the twin forks,
but expect cloud cover and instability shower activity to
increase across northern and eastern portions of the area late
this morning into the afternoon ahead of upper low center.
Highest probability for shower and isolated tstm activity will
be across SE CT today, closest to coastal New england low and
cold pool center. Far SW portions of the region (NYC/NJ metro)
will see an increase in afternoon cloud cover, but should be dry
much of the day, outside of an isolated afternoon shower with
closed low passage. Any showers/thunderstorms come to an end
from w to e late afternoon into evening with the loss of daytime
heating, and closed low center moving east.
Temperatures remain below normal under the northwesterly flow,
in the mid 70s to near 80 across the urban corridor.
Latest/12Z HRRR smoke showing the narrow corridor of smoke from
the Canadian wildfires transporting across western
Quebec/eastern Ontario into Central NY sliding SE across
western and southern sections of the CWA during the afternoon
into early evening on the backside of low/mid level low
pressure. This may result in some hazy skies. The area of smoke
then advects south of the area tonight into early Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper low over the Gulf of Maine slowly works northeastward,
a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure begins to build in
from the Ohio Valley. This should result in a mostly dry day
with across the area, under light northerly winds. There
remains a slight chance of an afternoon instability shower
across eastern CT with a lingering surface trough to the north,
though confidence is low in any shower development given recent
CAM trends. Highs will be similar, to a few degrees warmer,
than on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed upper low will be departing the Canadian Maritimes Monday
as heights gradually rise into the northeast Monday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge becomes established.
Weak surface troughs will remain in the vicinity Monday into
Wednesday, and with upper energy moving through there will be
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior.
With low pressure to the south and ridging in place, the trend has
been toward a drier forecast for the end of the week, and will have
only slight chances, although Friday may end up being dry.
Temperatures will be below normal levels Monday through Wednesday,
and then a warmup begins Thursday with temperatures returning to
near normal to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks slowly north today, through
today, becoming nearly stationary along the Maine coast
tonight.
Mainly VFR but some MVFR east of NYC terminals. There is a
chance of showers, mainly east of the NYC terminals, this
afternoon along with a slight chance of thunderstorms east of
NYC terminals. The best chances will be near KGON with some
potential for isolated thunderstorms. A few showers will be
possible near the NYC terminals, however, chances are low, so
not included in the TAFs.
NW winds become gusty going into this afternoon. Winds will be
generally NW near 10-15 kt this afternoon. Occasional peak
gusts may be a few knots higher than forecast this afternoon.
Timing of the end of gusts uncertain, and gusts may continue
into early this evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a low chance of showers this afternoon with no impacts to
visibilities or ceilings. A rumble of thunder can not be ruled out.
Peak wind gusts may be a few kts higher this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sun: VFR. A chc for pm -shra northeast of the NYC terminals.
Mon-Tue: VFR. A chc of shwrs, possibly a tstm each afternoon
northwest of the NYC terminals.
Wed: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through Sunday as high pressure
builds over the water. For the LI Sound and the easternmost
ocean zones, there could be brief gusty winds this afternoon
with any thunderstorms that do develop.
With high pressure dominating Monday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flood benchmarks are likely to be reached again during
tonight`s high tide cycle for the south shore back bays in Nassau
and Queens. Tidal departures are still near 1 to 1 1/2 ft, though a
bit lower than Friday night`s high tide. NYHOPS guidance has 50th
percentiles near or in minor flood stage and 90th percentiles into
minor for several locations. NYHOPS performance from Friday night
had the 50th percentile close to, or just short of the observations
across these locations, and so was used as the basis for this
forecast. Despite weak northerly flow forecast this evening, will go
ahead with a statement for Nassau and Queens for tonight`s high tide
cycle.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches from 2-3 ft 2 7-8 sec southerly swells under
northwest flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/JM
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...