000
FXUS61 KOKX 171824
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly head northeastward into the Gulf of
Maine today into tonight. High pressure then begins to build
into the region on Sunday as the low departs. A weak low
pressure trough lingers into Monday. High pressure then
dominates Tuesday through Thursday. A weak low to the south may
affect the area on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Anomalously strong closed upper low will pivot through the
region today, with surface trough developing and pivoting
through the area.
Slow moving scattered heavy shower and isolated tstm activity
across SE CT in vicinity of a weak surface trough, producing
locally heavy rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr, will gradually
push east through 4pm. Localized 2" rainfall amounts possible.
Farther west, widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
developing ahead of closed low center pivoting se thru NE
PA/Central NY are likely to track se across the much of the
region late this afternoon into early evening in a marginally
unstable airmass. Downslope flow should result in some
diminishing of this activity as it approaches the coast. Gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours are possible with any
thunderstorm activity.
Temperatures remain below normal across northern and eastern
sections of the region with cloud cover and shower activity,
otherwise, near seasonable for NYC/NJ metro with more sunshine
and offshore flow.
Narrow corridor of like smoke will continue to advect into
western and southern sections of the CWA through the evening on
the backside of low/mid level low pressure. Main result will be
hazy skies. The area of light smoke then advects south of the
area tonight into early Sunday.
Any showers/thunderstorm activity will come to an end from w to
e this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and closed low
center moving east.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper low over the Gulf of Maine slowly works northeastward,
a weak ridge aloft and surface high pressure begins to build in
from the Ohio Valley. This should result in a mostly dry day
with across the area, under light northerly winds. There
remains a slight chance of an afternoon instability shower
across eastern CT with a lingering surface trough to the north,
though confidence is low in any shower development given recent
CAM trends. Highs will be similar, to a few degrees warmer,
than on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed upper low will be departing the Canadian Maritimes Monday
as heights gradually rise into the northeast Monday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge becomes established.
Weak surface troughs will remain in the vicinity Monday into
Wednesday, and with upper energy moving through there will be
chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior.
With low pressure to the south and ridging in place, the trend has
been toward a drier forecast for the end of the week, and will have
only slight chances, although Friday may end up being dry.
Temperatures will be below normal levels Monday through Wednesday,
and then a warmup begins Thursday with temperatures returning to
near normal to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure gradually makes its way farther northeast from the
Gulf of Maine towards Nova Scotia during the TAF period.
Rain showers and MVFR conditions this afternoon into early
evening will be most prevalent near KGON and more occasional to
the west for terminals KSWF, KHPN, KBDR and KISP. Expecting
mainly dry and VFR conditions for NYC terminals. Mainly VFR for
all terminals expected from the middle of this evening through
the rest of the TAF period.
KGON could have a few additional thunderstorms this afternoon
mainly between 18 and 21Z.
Winds will be NW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. Wind
gusts subside tonight into Sunday with NW flow becoming 5-10
kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An occasional rain shower possible for NYC terminals before 22Z
with possible MVFR conditions. End time of wind gusts could be
1-2 hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sun afternoon - Sun night: VFR. Slight chance of MVFR and rain
showers near KGON. Sea breeze late afternoon for KJFK. Potential
for occasional NW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Gusts subside at night.
Mon - Tue: VFR. A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm
each afternoon into early evening north of the NYC terminals
with MVFR possible.
Wed - Thu: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions are expected through Sunday as high pressure
builds over the water. For the LI Sound and the easternmost
ocean zones, there could be brief gusty winds this afternoon
with any thunderstorms that do develop.
With high pressure dominating Monday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Localized minor flooding threat, with scattered downpours in
vicinity of a weak trough, will end across SE CT through 4pm.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the end
of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flood benchmarks are likely to be reached again during
tonight`s high tide cycle for the south shore back bays in Nassau
and Queens. Tidal departures are still near 1 to 1 1/2 ft, though a
bit lower than Friday night`s high tide. NYHOPS guidance has 50th
percentiles near or in minor flood stage and 90th percentiles into
minor for several locations. NYHOPS performance from Friday night
had the 50th percentile close to, or just short of the observations
across these locations, and so was used as the basis for this
forecast. Despite weak northerly flow forecast this evening, will go
ahead with a statement for Nassau and Queens for tonight`s high tide
cycle.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches from 2-3 ft 2 7-8 sec southerly swells under
northwest flow.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...