000
FXUS61 KOKX 172021
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly head northeastward into the Canadian
Maritimes through Sunday. In its wake, eastern Canadian high
pressure then begins to build into the region Sunday Night in
wake of a weak backdoor cold front. This front lingers to the
west Monday and Tuesday as high pressure shifts south out of
eastern Canada. The high builds overhead midweek, gradually
tracking offshore into late week. A weak area of low pressure
may bring wet weather to the region next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Anomalously strong closed upper low and surface trough will
pivot through the region late this afternoon into this evening.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms developing ahead of closed
low center pivoting thru a marginally unstable but relatively
dry airmass across Lower Hud/NE NJ are likely to track se
across the much of the region late this afternoon into early
evening. Downslope flow should result in some diminishing of
coverage and intensity of this activity as it approaches the
coast. Gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours are
possible with any thunderstorm activity.
Narrow corridor of light smoke will continue to advect through
western and southern sections of the CWA through the evening on
the backside of low/mid level low pressure. Mainly a continuation
of hazy skies. The area of light smoke then advects south of
the area tonight into early Sunday.
Any scattered showers/iso thunderstorm activity will come to an
end from w to e this evening with the loss of daytime heating,
and closed low center moving east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Closed upper low will slowly weaken and continue to move NE
through the Canadian maritimes Sunday into Sunday Night,
followed by a broad and weak northern stream shortwave
approaching from the NW late Sunday night.
Deep cyclonic flow to start the day Sunday, gradually weakens
in the afternoon. Weak trough develops over the region, with a
backdoor cold front pushing through the region Sunday evening.
This should result in considerable cloud cover maintenance and
development across the area, with potential for a few
instability showers developing over the higher terrain of
central New England and sinking south into southern CT.
NW flow Sun morning may give way to a late day seabreeze,
before flow becomes NE Sun eve/night in wake of backdoor front.
Highs near seasonable tomorrow, upper 70s, lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region enters a relatively quiet pattern that continues
much of the week. Troughing over New England begins to exit as
ridging builds over the Upper Great Lakes through midweek, with
the ridge gradually shifting overhead late week.
Surface high pressure noses down south out of Canada early in
the week, helping to maintain an easterly onshore flow through
Wednesday. This will temper temperatures a bit, with highs in
the 70s pretty much everywhere Monday and Tuesday. A surface
trough develops to our west into midweek, and with additional
upper energy moving through the flow in the departing trough, it
may be sufficient to instigate a few widely scattered showers
or thunderstorms across the interior in the afternoons, with dry
conditions expected along the coast.
Guidance continues to keep low pressure to the south and ridging in
place late this week, so rain chances remain low (under 30%) through
Friday, before potentially increasing this coming weekend as a warm
and mild SW flow developing.
Temperatures will be below normal levels Monday through Wednesday,
and then a gradual warmup begins Thursday with temperatures
returning to near normal to slightly above normal. With only subtle
adjustment, national blended guidance was followed for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure gradually makes its way farther northeast from the
Gulf of Maine towards Nova Scotia during the TAF period.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms into early
evening, mainly before 00Z with temporary MVFR and possible
localized gusty winds up to near 35 kt. Mainly VFR for all
terminals expected from the middle of this evening through the
rest of the TAF period.
Winds will be NW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. Wind
gusts subside late tonight into Sunday with NW flow becoming
5-10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of SHRA/TSRA could be off by 1-2 hours from TAF. Peak
gusts to near 30 kt possible at times through the evening push.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sun afternoon - Sun night: VFR. Slight chance of MVFR and rain
showers near KGON. Sea breeze late afternoon for KJFK. Potential
for occasional NW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
subside at night.
Mon - Tue: VFR. A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm
each afternoon into early evening north of the NYC terminals
with MVFR possible.
Wed - Thu: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
NW gusts up to 20 kt likely this evening in wake of trough
axis, with ocean seas building to 3 to 4 ft. There will be brief
gusty winds into early this evening with any isolated
thunderstorms that work into the waters. Otherwise, sub SCA
conditions are expected through Sunday Night with a weak
pressure gradient.
With high pressure dominating Monday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor coastal flood benchmarks will be approached and possibly
touched during tonight`s high tide cycle for the south shore back
bays in Nassau County. Tidal departures are still near 1 to 1
1/2 ft, though a bit lower than Friday night`s high tide. Water
levels likely remain minor below flood thresholds along Jamaica
Bay.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents this evening for all
Atlantic facing beaches from 2-3 ft 2 7-8 sec southerly swells
under northwest flow.
The rip risk will be borderline low to moderate for Sunday as S
swells drop to around 2 ft in northwest flow.
The risk on Monday likely will transition to a hybrid longshore
and rip risk. Generally low for western beaches and moderate
for eastern terminals based on a mix of 1 to 2 ft @7-8 sec S/SE
swells and 2 ft easterly wind waves.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR/NV
HYDROLOGY...DR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV