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FXUS61 KOKX 181133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure continues its trek northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes today as high pressure builds in, while a weak trough/cold front moves through late in the day. High pressure and another weak front impacts the area on Monday. A weak surface trough will be in the area Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure builds south from northern New England Tuesday and Wednesday and then moves offshore Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure to the south may impact the area late Thursday night through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast remains on track this morning with only minor adjustments made based on current observational trends. Previous discussion follows. Current GOES-16 6.19 micron VW imagery shows potent upper low located over the Gulf of Maine slowly pushing northeast. Back to the west, an upper ridge was located over the Great Lakes, with the local area caught between the two features. At the surface, northwest flow and a weak sfc trough/cold front was located across New England. That trough will slide to the south as the upper low pulls out, and traverse the local area this afternoon and tonight as a backdoor cold front. This may kick off a few isolated showers, particularly for eastern CT. However, while the airmass does destabilize somewhat with daytime heating, lift is weak and so not expecting much in the way of any thunder. Most of the area looks to remain dry today under partly to mostly sunny skies, and not expecting as much shower/tstm coverage as we saw on Saturday. Local sea breezes are likely this afternoon, given the weaker synoptic flow, later in the afternoon, potentially kicking off a shower as well. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than on Saturday, in the lower 80s across northeast NJ/NYC and western Long Island and in the mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s across the urban corridor, the low 60s for coastal areas and upper 50s in outlying areas, under a few hours of potential radiational cooling overnight. Latest/00Z HRRR smoke run shows low level smoke that caused some haze on Saturday in the Lower Hudson Valley and northeastern NJ pushing south of the area and offshore today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A mid level shortwave embedded in the deep cyclonic flow associated with the departing upper low sends another weak trough through the area during the afternoon. Increasing cloud cover is likely during the day, and shower chances increase during the day, especially north and west of NYC. There is also a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm with a bit of instability per BUFKIT soundings, though expect coverage to be isolated and confined to areas north and east of NYC. Temperatures aloft will begin to warm slightly on Monday but will be mitigated at the surface with southeasterly flow. Thus anticipate low to mid 80s across the NYC urban corridor (upped to about the NBM 75th percentile, which is in line with MOS), and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. 00Z HRRR smoke is again depicting another plume of smoke aloft currently located over Michigan to slowly advect into western NY and eventually to the western portions of the area by Monday night. While the concentration of the plume is forecast to be somewhat less than the plume overhead on Saturday, skies may be hazy by Monday afternoon, especially north and west of NYC.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Tuesday an upper trough will be exiting off the northeast coast as ridging builds to the west. A surface trough will be in the vicinity Tuesday as upper energy moves through with the trough. There may be enough lift and weak instability for a few showers, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday as the upper ridge builds over the region and along the coast. Meanwhile surface high pressure will be building south from New England. With an east to southeast flow a relatively cool airmass will be across the region with temperatures below normal. The upper ridge moves offshore late Thursday into Saturday as does the surface high. A return flow will set up and temperatures will return to more seasonal normal levels, and relative humidity will be increasing. There is uncertainty as to the evolution of a closed low across the Gulf coast states moving into or around the western periphery of the ridge. Followed the NBM guidance which brings chances of precipitation to the area late Thursday night into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure west of Nova Scotia tracks slowly east today and tonight as weak high pressure builds into the region. VFR. W to NW winds around 10kt continue into this afternoon. Late-day sea breezes expected at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON, possibly reaching the remaining city terminals and KHPN around 00z. Winds become light and variable to N to NE around 5 kt tonight. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of onset of the sea breeze is uncertain, and winds may become light and variable at KEWR and KTEB before the sea breeze occurs. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Mon - Tue: VFR. A chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms, mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. MVFR possible. Wed - Thu: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... From Sunday and Monday, sub SCA levels are forecast given the weak pressure gradient over the waters. With high pressure dominating Tuesday into late in the week, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic facing beaches with 2-3 ft waves with 7 to 8 second dominant period expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET NEAR TERM...DBR SHORT TERM...DBR LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MET MARINE...DBR/MET HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...