000
FXUS61 KOKX 181133
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
733 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues its trek northeastward into the Canadian
Maritimes today as high pressure builds in, while a weak
trough/cold front moves through late in the day. High pressure
and another weak front impacts the area on Monday. A weak
surface trough will be in the area Tuesday. Meanwhile, high
pressure builds south from northern New England Tuesday and
Wednesday and then moves offshore Thursday through Saturday. Low
pressure to the south may impact the area late Thursday night
through Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast remains on track this morning with only minor
adjustments made based on current observational trends. Previous
discussion follows.
Current GOES-16 6.19 micron VW imagery shows
potent upper low located over the Gulf of Maine slowly pushing
northeast. Back to the west, an upper ridge was located over the
Great Lakes, with the local area caught between the two
features.
At the surface, northwest flow and a weak sfc trough/cold front was
located across New England. That trough will slide to the south as
the upper low pulls out, and traverse the local area this afternoon
and tonight as a backdoor cold front. This may kick off a few
isolated showers, particularly for eastern CT. However, while the
airmass does destabilize somewhat with daytime heating, lift is weak
and so not expecting much in the way of any thunder. Most of the
area looks to remain dry today under partly to mostly sunny skies,
and not expecting as much shower/tstm coverage as we saw on
Saturday. Local sea breezes are likely this afternoon, given the
weaker synoptic flow, later in the afternoon, potentially kicking
off a shower as well.
Highs will be a few degrees warmer than on Saturday, in the lower
80s across northeast NJ/NYC and western Long Island and in the mid
to upper 70s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s
across the urban corridor, the low 60s for coastal areas and upper
50s in outlying areas, under a few hours of potential radiational
cooling overnight.
Latest/00Z HRRR smoke run shows low level smoke that caused some
haze on Saturday in the Lower Hudson Valley and northeastern
NJ pushing south of the area and offshore today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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A mid level shortwave embedded in the deep cyclonic flow associated
with the departing upper low sends another weak trough through the
area during the afternoon. Increasing cloud cover is likely during
the day, and shower chances increase during the day, especially
north and west of NYC. There is also a chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm with a bit of instability per BUFKIT soundings,
though expect coverage to be isolated and confined to areas
north and east of NYC.
Temperatures aloft will begin to warm slightly on Monday but will be
mitigated at the surface with southeasterly flow. Thus anticipate
low to mid 80s across the NYC urban corridor (upped to about
the NBM 75th percentile, which is in line with MOS), and mid to
upper 70s elsewhere.
00Z HRRR smoke is again depicting another plume of smoke aloft
currently located over Michigan to slowly advect into western NY and
eventually to the western portions of the area by Monday night.
While the concentration of the plume is forecast to be somewhat less
than the plume overhead on Saturday, skies may be hazy by Monday
afternoon, especially north and west of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday an upper trough will be exiting off the northeast coast as
ridging builds to the west. A surface trough will be in the vicinity
Tuesday as upper energy moves through with the trough.
There may be enough lift and weak instability for a few showers, and
maybe an isolated thunderstorm.
Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday as the upper ridge
builds over the region and along the coast. Meanwhile surface high
pressure will be building south from New England.
With an east to southeast flow a relatively cool airmass will be
across the region with temperatures below normal. The upper ridge
moves offshore late Thursday into Saturday as does the surface high.
A return flow will set up and temperatures will return to more
seasonal normal levels, and relative humidity will be increasing.
There is uncertainty as to the evolution of a closed low across the
Gulf coast states moving into or around the western periphery of the
ridge. Followed the NBM guidance which brings chances of
precipitation to the area late Thursday night into the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure west of Nova Scotia tracks slowly east today and
tonight as weak high pressure builds into the region.
VFR.
W to NW winds around 10kt continue into this afternoon. Late-day
sea breezes expected at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON, possibly reaching
the remaining city terminals and KHPN around 00z. Winds become
light and variable to N to NE around 5 kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of onset of the sea breeze is uncertain, and winds may become
light and variable at KEWR and KTEB before the sea breeze occurs.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Mon - Tue: VFR. A chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms, mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. MVFR
possible.
Wed - Thu: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
From Sunday and Monday, sub SCA levels are forecast given the
weak pressure gradient over the waters.
With high pressure dominating Tuesday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches with 2-3 ft waves with 7 to 8 second dominant
period expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...