000
FXUS61 KOKX 181503
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues its trek northeastward into the Canadian
Maritimes today as high pressure builds in, while a weak
trough/cold front moves through late in the day. High pressure
and another weak front impacts the area on Monday. A weak
surface trough will be in the area Tuesday. Meanwhile, high
pressure builds south from northern New England Tuesday and
Wednesday and then moves offshore Thursday through Saturday. Low
pressure to the south may impact the area late Thursday night
through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues to move northeast through the Canadian
Maritimes today through tonight. Aloft, the cutoff upper level low
will follow a similar track with a trough on the backside of the low
remaining across the area. However, this trough will become weaker
with slight height rises today into tonight. The trough on the
numerical weather prediction models plan views appears to become
relatively flatter with time. The forecast models show an area of
mid level positive vorticity advection moving into the local region
for this evening before more negative vorticity advection taking
place late tonight into early Monday.
The pressure gradient will become weak, allowing for sea breeze
circulations to develop towards the latter half of this afternoon.
The sea breeze will likely move farther northward towards early this
evening. Winds overall tonight will eventually become light and
variable in direction.
Mostly sunny sky conditions transition to partly sunny sky
conditions with diurnal cumulus development with daytime heating and
cold pool aloft.
Large scale numerical weather prediction model precipitation
forecasts keep conditions dry but mesoscale models convey isolated
to widely scattered shower development late this afternoon into this
evening. These models include the HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW FV3,
HRRR as well as the NAM Nest. There will not as much favorable
lift jet dynamics and less instability than yesterday so do not
think there will be enough vertical lift for thunderstorm
development. However, with less than 1000 J/kg of surface CAPE
and cold pool aloft, some shower development is forecast along
the higher terrain and then subsequent outflow boundaries
colliding with sea breeze boundaries could initiate further
shower development to the south late this afternoon with some
lingering shower activity this evening.
Dry conditions expected late tonight with more subsidence taking
place aloft.
Temperatures will remain near normal for highs today and lows
tonight. Forecast highs today are mainly in the upper 70s to lower
80s and forecast lows tonight are mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Lows get into the lower 50s for some interior locations and some
parts of the Pine Barrens while some parts of NYC will have lows
more in the upper 60s for tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level shortwave embedded in the deep cyclonic flow associated
with the departing upper low sends another weak trough through the
area during the afternoon. Increasing cloud cover is likely during
the day, and shower chances increase during the day, especially
north and west of NYC. There is also a chance of an afternoon
thunderstorm with a bit of instability per BUFKIT soundings,
though expect coverage to be isolated and confined to areas
north and east of NYC.
Temperatures aloft will begin to warm slightly on Monday but will be
mitigated at the surface with southeasterly flow. Thus anticipate
low to mid 80s across the NYC urban corridor (upped to about
the NBM 75th percentile, which is in line with MOS), and mid to
upper 70s elsewhere.
00Z HRRR smoke is again depicting another plume of smoke aloft
currently located over Michigan to slowly advect into western NY and
eventually to the western portions of the area by Monday night.
While the concentration of the plume is forecast to be somewhat less
than the plume overhead on Saturday, skies may be hazy by Monday
afternoon, especially north and west of NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday an upper trough will be exiting off the northeast coast as
ridging builds to the west. A surface trough will be in the vicinity
Tuesday as upper energy moves through with the trough.
There may be enough lift and weak instability for a few showers, and
maybe an isolated thunderstorm.
Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday as the upper ridge
builds over the region and along the coast. Meanwhile surface high
pressure will be building south from New England.
With an east to southeast flow a relatively cool airmass will be
across the region with temperatures below normal. The upper ridge
moves offshore late Thursday into Saturday as does the surface high.
A return flow will set up and temperatures will return to more
seasonal normal levels, and relative humidity will be increasing.
There is uncertainty as to the evolution of a closed low across the
Gulf coast states moving into or around the western periphery of the
ridge. Followed the NBM guidance which brings chances of
precipitation to the area late Thursday night into the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure tracks slowly northeast through the Canadian
maritimes today and tonight. A backdoor cold front pushes
through the area this evening, with weak high pressure builds
into the region in its wake.
VFR.
NW winds (generally right of 310 magnetic) around 8-12kt with
occasional higher gusts continue into this afternoon. Late- day
sea breezes expected at KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. Low probability of
reaching the remaining city terminals and KHPN around 00z.
Winds become light and variable this evening, and then NE
around 5 kt tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds generally right of 301 magnetic thru the day. Occasional
gusts to high teens through early afternoon. Late day sea
breeze likely at JFK (timing may be off by an hour or so). Low
probability for sea breeze at KLGA/KEWR/KTEB.
Bkn cigs of 050-070 likely this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Mon - Tue: VFR. A chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms, north and west of the NYC terminals. E/NE winds.
Low prob for MVFR cigs Mon NIght/Tue AM for coastal terminals,
and Tue Night/Wed AM.
Wed - Fri: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
From today through Monday, sub SCA levels are forecast given
the weak pressure gradient over the waters.
With high pressure dominating Tuesday into late in the week, winds
and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches with 2-3 ft waves with 7 to 8 second dominant
period expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM/DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...