000
FXUS61 KOKX 182345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue moving northeastward across the
Canadian Maritimes through tonight. A weak cold front moves
through this evening and then east of the region later tonight.
Another weak front moves into the area Monday into Monday
night. This surface trough lingers nearby Tuesday as high
pressure builds south from New England. The high moves overhead
Wednesday, before shifting offshore into late week. Low pressure
to the south may impact the area this coming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet evening as low pressure continues to move northeast
through the Canadian Maritimes into tonight. While a stray
sprinkle or shower is not completely out of the question,
particularly over the interior, CAMs have been overdeveloping
the little convection there was today. Thus, have omitted
mention from forecast going forward. Forecast remains on track
and previous discussion follows.
Dry conditions expected overnight with more subsidence taking
place aloft. Temperatures will remain near normal for lows late
tonight. Forecast lows tonight are mainly in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Lows get into the lower 50s for some interior locations
and possibly for some parts of the Pine Barrens as well while
some parts of NYC will have lows more in the upper 60s for
tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The local area will still be under the upper level trough with
periodic shortwaves moving along the southern end of the trough.
One moves through Monday night. The trough and shortwaves will
still be present despite some slight height rises. There will
not be much strength to the shortwave but enough to warrant the
mention of the possibility of rain showers Monday afternoon
through Monday night. Models also indicate that low level
instability will be a little higher than the previous day so
added in a slight chance of thunderstorms across the most
interior parts of the area within the Lower Hudson Valley into
Southwest CT.
At the surface, weak high pressure to the north and east allows
for an easterly flow to develop. The forecast models also
depict some trough development across the interior that could
further focus convergence and allow for rain shower development
late in the afternoon and into Monday night. The trough remains
in the vicinity of the region Monday night. The easterly flow
will be greater along the coast and less inland, allowing for
relatively warmer temperatures across the interior with greater
convergence as well. The easterly flow slightly weakens Monday
night.
Temperatures Monday trend slightly cooler along the coast
compared to the previous day with more maritime influence but
will be nearly the same inland compared to the previous day.
Used NBM and a consensus of MOS for the forecast highs. For
Monday night, used a blend of consensus raw model temperatures
and NBM to convey a less vast range of lows, generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, a little below normal for this time of
year. The airmass will be transitioning to more of a cooler
maritime airmass.
The area where showers will be more probable is where the HRRR
was showing some increase in near surface smoke for Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. Because of the increased chances
for showers, do not think concentrations of smoke would be much
considering the wet deposition from the rain showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Troughing over New England finally exits as ridging over the Upper
Great Lakes builds and gradually shifts east this week.
A surface trough lingers nearby to start the period, with a weak
shortwave passing through New England providing some additional
energy. This weak forcing and instability (MUCAPE values around 500
J/kg) may support the development of a few scattered showers or
thunderstorms across the interior in the afternoon, though most
should remain dry.
Upper ridging begins to shift east Wednesday into Thursday as
surface high pressure tracks south into the region, maintaining dry
conditions. With the east to southeast flow, a relatively cool air
mass will be across the region through Thursday; highs mostly in the
70s. The ridge and surface high move offshore into the start of the
coming weekend, with a return flow allowing temperatures to return
to more seasonable levels, with humidity also on the increase.
Guidance continues to keep low pressure to the south late this week,
though rain chances begin to climb this weekend with increasing
moisture on the S/SW flow. Capped PoPs at high chance (50%) given
inherent uncertainty at this stage. Otherwise, with subtle
adjustment, national blended guidance was followed for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak backdoor cold front pushes through the area this
evening, otherwise, weak high pressure will be in place.
VFR.
Sea breezes continue to push north and west early on while
weakening. Winds by around midnight should shift NE, but remain
light.
For Monday, NE winds less than 10 kt for morning push,
giving way to hybrid SE sea breeze late morning into early
afternoon, pushing through all terminals except KSWF.
Haze aloft possible from Canadian wildfires Monday morning, no
issues anticipated at ground level.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift to SE at KEWR may occur closer to 01z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Mon Night - Tue Night: VFR. A chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms, well north and west of the NYC/NJ terminals. E
winds 10 kt or less. Low prob for MVFR cigs Mon Night/Tue AM for
coastal terminals, and Tue Night/Wed AM.
Wed - Fri: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The pressure gradient across the forecast waters will remain
relatively weak through Monday night, allowing for sub-SCA
conditions to continue.
With high pressure dominating Tuesday into late in the week, winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any rain showers into Monday night are not expected to result
in any hydrologic impacts. Rainfall amounts are expected to
remain less than a quarter of an inch on average.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip currents Monday for all Atlantic facing
beaches with 2 ft waves and 7 second or less dominant periods
expected.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday for all Atlantic
facing beaches with 2-3 ft waves and 7 to 8 second dominant periods
expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR