000
FXUS61 KOKX 191113
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the north today through Tuesday as a
weak surface trough moves into the area. The high builds into
the region Tuesday night. The high then moves overhead
Wednesday, before shifting offshore Thursday. A complex low
pressure to the south may impact the area late this week into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes, updated for current conditions.
An upper trough will remain across New England and into upstate
New York today as upper level energy rotates into the southern
portion of the trough. Meanwhile a weak surface trough moves
into the lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut.
This boundary will provide weak lift for showers to develop this
afternoon. In addition developing sea breezes moving inland
will also be the focus for additional showers late in the day.
The CAMs depict this rather well. While surface based CAPE will
be minimal across the interior, 100 to 150 J/kg, an isolated
thunderstorm will be possible. The showers will also be
diurnally driven, weakening this evening. Temperatures will be
near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will remain to the north tonight into Tuesday
night, and weaken late Tuesday night as heights slowly rise. And
with the weak surface trough remaining, providing convergence,
the chances for precipitation across the interior will continue
through Tuesday. The continued easterly flow keeps temperatures
moderate Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Surface based CAPE will be minimal
Tuesday, and confined to the far interior, with just around 100
J/kg. With upper support weakening Tuesday night will not have
any mention for precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global ensembles (EPS/GEFS) show a bit of a pattern change
unfolding for the period with an amplified ridge over the Great
Lakes shifting east over New England, while a cutoff low was
situated over the southeast, to start. The ridge slides east
toward the end of the week while the cutoff heads northeast and
weakens into next weekend. Thus, temperatures will start out
below normal, with an increase into next weekend to near, or
slightly above, normal.
In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions are expected for
the start of the extended as surface high pressure is centered
over northern New England. The high moves east and offshore by
Thursday as surface low pressure approaches the area from the
mid South. Thursday looks to start off dry, with increasing
cloud cover and precipitation chances Thursday afternoon as an
inverted trough moves north into the region. The NBM trend in
precipitation has been to increase amounts along with the
northward extent of the initial precipitation shield on Thursday
night into Friday.
The surface low continues to move north Friday and Saturday
keeping precipitation chances in over the period. As the upper
low weakens into an open wave on Saturday and moves over the
area, thunderstorms become more likely, especially north and
west of NYC. Model soundings already showing some modest MUCAPE
and shear, and NBM probabilities of thunder 40-50%, increased
from 20-30% from the past few cycles.
Weak ridging then looks to build in for Sunday and Monday, as the
low pressure system heads into New England.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area with a weak surface trough
approaching the terminals this evening.
VFR for most of the TAF period. MVFR cigs are progged to
impact the coastal and NYC terminals overnight tonight into
early Tuesday. An isolated shower is possible this afternoon
especially for KSWF/KHPN/KGON/KBDR. Have kept out of TAFs given
uncertainty in the development and coverage.
NE winds less than 10 kt giving way to SE sea breeze late
morning into early afternoon, pushing through all terminals
except KSWF.
Haze aloft is possible from Canadian wildfires Monday morning,
though no issues anticipated at ground level.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Mon Night - Tue Night: VFR. A chance of showers with isolated
thunderstorms, well north and west of the NYC/NJ terminals. E winds
10 kt or less. Chance of MVFR/IFR cigs Mon Night/Tue AM and Tue
Night/Wed AM.
Wed - Fri: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
With high pressure building to the north of the waters today
into Tuesday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across
the forecast waters into Tuesday night.
From Wednesday through Friday, sub SCA conditions on Wednesday
into Thursday with high pressure in the vicinity. Thereafter,
SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Friday as a frontal
system approaches the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip currents today for all Atlantic
facing beaches.
There is a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for all Atlantic
facing beaches of Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau, and southwestern
Suffolk counties, and a moderate risk at the southeastern
Suffolk county ocean beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...