000
FXUS61 KOKX 191501
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1101 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the north today through Tuesday as a
weak surface trough moves into the area. The high builds into
the region Tuesday night. The high then moves overhead
Wednesday, before shifting offshore Thursday. A complex low
pressure to the south may impact the area late this week into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad upper trough remain across New England and into upstate
New York today. Once shortwave rotating around it slides east
this morning, with another approaching late today into this
evening.
This forcing, combined with weak thermal troughing across the
interior and inward trekking sea breeze boundary moving inland
will be focus for isolated shower activity across the interior
late in the day/evening. Minimal surface based CAPE across the
interior, 100 to 150 J/kg, will mainly be relegated below the
mixed phase region under a mid-level cap, keeping the potential
for isolated thunderstorm activity quite limited. Shower
activity will reduce in coverage this evening with loss of
diurnal instability, but with shortwave energy shearing through,
an isolated shower threat will remain across far interior into
the overnight.
Temperatures will be near normal (upper 70s to lower 80s), with
temps stabilizing in the afternoon along the coast with sea
breeze development.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will remain to the north tonight into Tuesday
night, and weaken late Tuesday night as heights slowly rise. And
with the weak surface trough remaining, providing convergence,
the chances for precipitation across the interior will continue
through Tuesday. The continued easterly flow keeps temperatures
moderate Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Surface based CAPE will be minimal
Tuesday, and confined to the far interior, with just around 100
J/kg. With upper support weakening Tuesday night will not have
any mention for precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global ensembles (EPS/GEFS) show a bit of a pattern change
unfolding for the period with an amplified ridge over the Great
Lakes shifting east over New England, while a cutoff low was
situated over the southeast, to start. The ridge slides east
toward the end of the week while the cutoff heads northeast and
weakens into next weekend. Thus, temperatures will start out
below normal, with an increase into next weekend to near, or
slightly above, normal.
In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions are expected for
the start of the extended as surface high pressure is centered
over northern New England. The high moves east and offshore by
Thursday as surface low pressure approaches the area from the
mid South. Thursday looks to start off dry, with increasing
cloud cover and precipitation chances Thursday afternoon as an
inverted trough moves north into the region. The NBM trend in
precipitation has been to increase amounts along with the
northward extent of the initial precipitation shield on Thursday
night into Friday.
The surface low continues to move north Friday and Saturday
keeping precipitation chances in over the period. As the upper
low weakens into an open wave on Saturday and moves over the
area, thunderstorms become more likely, especially north and
west of NYC. Model soundings already showing some modest MUCAPE
and shear, and NBM probabilities of thunder 40-50%, increased
from 20-30% from the past few cycles.
Weak ridging then looks to build in for Sunday and Monday, as the
low pressure system heads into New England.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains over the area today. A weak surface
trough approaches the terminals this evening as high pressure
builds more off the coast of New England.
Mainly VFR for most of the TAF period. KGON has some MVFR
stratus into early this afternoon and KISP could also develop
MVFR stratus into early this afternoon. However, MVFR cigs are
progged to impact more of the region along the coastal and NYC
terminals overnight late tonight into early Tuesday.
An isolated shower is possible late this afternoon into early
this evening especially for KHPN/KGON/KBDR with scattered
showers potentially farther north towards KSWF. Have kept out of
TAFs except for KSWF given uncertainty in the development and
coverage. KSWF has vicinity showers late afternoon into early
evening.
E-NE winds less than 10 kt are giving way to SE sea breeze into
early afternoon, pushing through all terminals except KSWF.
Haze aloft is possible from Canadian wildfires this morning,
though no issues anticipated at ground level.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tonight: VFR initially. A chance of showers in the evening,
slight chance of thunderstorms early evening. slight chance of
showers overnight, for well north and west of the NYC/NJ
terminals. Chance of MVFR/IFR cigs late tonight.
Tue - Tue Night: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR/IFR cigs Tue AM and
Tue Night. Possible showers for north and west of the NYC/NJ
terminals day into early eve with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.
Wed - Fri: Possible Wed AM low clouds MVFR to IFR. Otherwise, VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure building to the north of the waters today
into Tuesday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across
the forecast waters into Tuesday night.
From Wednesday through Friday, sub SCA conditions on Wednesday
into Thursday with high pressure in the vicinity. Thereafter,
SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Friday as a frontal
system approaches the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is generally a low risk of rip currents today for all
Atlantic facing beaches with a mix of 1 to 2 ft SE swells, and
developing NE wind wave.
There is a low building to moderate risk of rip/longshore
currents on Tuesday for all Atlantic facing beaches of Brooklyn,
Queens, Nassau, and southwestern Suffolk counties, and a
moderate risk at the southeastern Suffolk county ocean beaches.
This as easterly winds waves builds to 4 ft, mixed with a couple
of residual se swells.
The rip/longshore current risk will likely climb to high risk
on Wednesday with 5 ft@ 7 sec period SE swells building in.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR/JM
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...