000
FXUS61 KOKX 191826
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds to the north today through Tuesday as a
weak surface trough moves into the area. The high builds into
the region Tuesday night. The high then moves overhead
Wednesday, before shifting offshore Thursday. A complex low
pressure to the south may impact the area late this week into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A broad upper trough remain across New England and into upstate
New York today. Once shortwave rotating around it slides east
this morning, with another approaching late today into this
evening.
This forcing, combined with weak thermal troughing across the
interior and inward trekking sea breeze boundary moving inland
will be focus for isolated shower activity across the interior
late in the day/evening. Minimal surface based CAPE across the
interior, 100 to 150 J/kg, will mainly be relegated below the
mixed phase region under a mid-level cap, keeping the potential
for isolated thunderstorm activity quite limited. Shower
activity will reduce in coverage this evening with loss of
diurnal instability, but with shortwave energy shearing through,
an isolated shower threat will remain across far interior into
the overnight.
Temperatures will be near normal (upper 70s to lower 80s), with
temps stabilizing in the afternoon along the coast with sea
breeze development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough will remain to the north tonight into Tuesday
night, and weaken late Tuesday night as heights slowly rise. And
with the weak surface trough remaining, providing convergence,
the chances for precipitation across the interior will continue
through Tuesday. The continued easterly flow keeps temperatures
moderate Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Surface based CAPE will be minimal
Tuesday, and confined to the far interior, with just around 100
J/kg. With upper support weakening Tuesday night will not have
any mention for precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Global ensembles (EPS/GEFS) show a bit of a pattern change
unfolding for the period with an amplified ridge over the Great
Lakes shifting east over New England, while a cutoff low was
situated over the southeast, to start. The ridge slides east
toward the end of the week while the cutoff heads northeast and
weakens into next weekend. Thus, temperatures will start out
below normal, with an increase into next weekend to near, or
slightly above, normal.
In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions are expected for
the start of the extended as surface high pressure is centered
over northern New England. The high moves east and offshore by
Thursday as surface low pressure approaches the area from the
mid South. Thursday looks to start off dry, with increasing
cloud cover and precipitation chances Thursday afternoon as an
inverted trough moves north into the region. The NBM trend in
precipitation has been to increase amounts along with the
northward extent of the initial precipitation shield on Thursday
night into Friday.
The surface low continues to move north Friday and Saturday
keeping precipitation chances in over the period. As the upper
low weakens into an open wave on Saturday and moves over the
area, thunderstorms become more likely, especially north and
west of NYC. Model soundings already showing some modest MUCAPE
and shear, and NBM probabilities of thunder 40-50%, increased
from 20-30% from the past few cycles.
Weak ridging then looks to build in for Sunday and Monday, as the
low pressure system heads into New England.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak surface cold frontal boundary remains within the area with high
pressure building in the Gulf of Maine during the TAF period.
VFR conditions continue through this evening but low stratus will
develop and is expected to move in late tonight into Tuesday
morning, lowering conditions to MVFR and possibly down to IFR for
some terminals. The stratus is expected to scatter out later in the
TAF period during Tuesday afternoon.
Regarding weather, there is a chance for showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms near KSWF as well as possible MVFR late this
afternoon into this evening with lesser chances of showers
elsewhere. Only have VCSH for KSWF with otherwise probabilities
being too low to include showers in TAF.
Winds will generally be E-SE during the TAF period near 5-10 kt.
This afternoon, winds will be SE near 10 kt, and then become more
easterly tonight into early Tuesday decreasing to near 5-8 kts.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR timing could be a few hours off from TAF. Categories may
fluctuate late tonight into Tuesday morning. Localized IFR will be
possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue afternoon - Tue Night: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR/IFR cigs
at night. Possible showers and MVFR for north and west of the
NYC/NJ terminals day into early eve.
Wed: Possible Wed AM low clouds MVFR to IFR. Otherwise, mainly VFR.
E wind gusts 15-20 kt day into eve.
Thu: Chance for showers. MVFR possible at times. E wind gusts 15-20
kt day into eve.
Fri: Chance for showers. Possible thunderstorms near and NW of NYC
terminals, mainly afternoon into evening. MVFR possible at times.
Sat: Showers become more likely. Possible thunderstorms, mainly
afternoon into evening. MVFR possible at times. S wind gusts 15-20
kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure building to the north of the waters today
into Tuesday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across
the forecast waters into Tuesday night.
From Wednesday through Friday, sub SCA conditions on Wednesday
into Thursday with high pressure in the vicinity. Thereafter,
SCA conditions are possible Thursday into Friday as a frontal
system approaches the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is generally a low risk of rip currents today for all
Atlantic facing beaches with a mix of 1 to 2 ft SE swells, and
developing NE wind wave.
There is a low building to moderate risk of rip/longshore
currents on Tuesday for all Atlantic facing beaches of Brooklyn,
Queens, Nassau, and southwestern Suffolk counties, and a
moderate risk at the southeastern Suffolk county ocean beaches.
This as easterly winds waves builds to 4 ft, mixed with a couple
of residual se swells.
The rip/longshore current risk will likely climb to high risk
on Wednesday with 5 ft@ 7 sec period SE swells building in.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DBR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...