000
FXUS61 KOKX 201149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over northern New England remains into Wednesday,
and begins to move slowly offshore Wednesday night. The high
shifts farther east into the Atlantic on Thursday as a low over
the Southeast begins to drift north. This system tracks into the
Midwest by Saturday, lingering near the region into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weakening area of showers was moving through Fairfield county
Connecticut, with perhaps a few sprinkles falling out of the
clouds with returns of 15 to 25 dbzs. Updated to add sprinkles,
otherwise forecast was unchanged.
The persistent upper trough over New England finally moves
offshore today as heights begin to rise to the west as a ridge
builds into the Great Lakes region. A weak surface trough
develops across the interior, and will be the focus for a few
showers to develop later this morning and into this afternoon.
There is little to no CAPE inland and weak instability, so will
not mention any thunder. A persistent easterly flow around the
high will keep temperatures slightly below normal, and cooler
than Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers will dissipate early this evening as the
surface trough dissipates, and heights rise with the upper ridge
building to the north. A marine layer will remain in place as
the easterly flow continues. Stratus may be more widespread
tonight as a shallow low level inversion sets ups. May be too
low with the cloud cover for tonight into Wednesday morning if
stratus does become widespread.
With surface high pressure moving offshore of the New England
coast Wednesday night and a cutoff low over the southeastern
states drifting northward, the chances of precipitation moving
into the southern portions of the forecast area will be
increasing. There is uncertainty with where the closed low will
drift and with high pressure to the north, precipitation may
remain south of the area Wednesday night. Temperatures continue
below normal as the east flow persists.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. Much of the period is
expected to be unsettled with a blocking pattern in place.
Thursday is expected to be the coolest day of the period thanks
to continued easterly flow and the possibility of rain cooled
air as a cutoff low situated over the Southeast drifts north.
Still some uncertainty as to how much rain will actually make
into the region, as it will be fighting dry air associated with
the offshore high, though 00z guidance has trended wetter.
Nudged PoPs a bit above NBM on Thursday because of this; high
chance or likely for most of the region, increasing as you head
south. QPF has increased as well, with up to an inch possible in
some spots. The showers likely taper Thursday night, but rain
chances linger through the weekend and into early next week as
the low meanders nearby.
Late in the week, southerly flow develops with the region
sandwiched between the low tracking into the Midwest and
offshore high pressure. This should allow temperatures to warm
to more seasonable levels for late June. The southerly flow will
also allow for an increase in humidity levels as dew points
rise into the middle to upper 60s by Friday. The upper low
weakens into a trough late Friday and remains to the west of the
area Saturday, before potentially coming east into early next
week. The increase in humidity and the warmth will allow more in
the way of instability, with the potential for a few
thunderstorms, especially from NYC and points north and west
each afternoon from Friday onward. Beyond already noted, stuck
close to national blended guidance for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in place through the TAF period.
MVFR/IFR cigs around this morning with a low stratus deck.
Guidance indicates this may persist for the next several hours
before a gradual improvement to VFR by 15 or 16z. Could be a
shower or two at KSWF this afternoon, but confidence not high
enough to include in TAF. Potential for stratus development
again early Wed AM, though with low confidence, maintained VFR
forecast for now.
E winds less than 10 kt this morning, veering ESE-SE at around
10 kt this afternoon. Speeds increase Wed PM to between 10 to 15
kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief IFR cigs possible this morning.
Category improvements may be off by a couple of hours this
morning into the early afternoon.
Uncertainty in how much stratus development occurs early Wed AM,
MVFR/IFR conds possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wed: Possible AM MVFR cigs. Otherwise, VFR. E wind gusts 15-20
kt day into evening.
Thu: Showers likely in the morning, possibly into the afternoon.
MVFR or lower possible at times. E wind gusts 15-20 kt day into
evening.
Fri: Chance for showers. Possible thunderstorms near and NW of NYC
terminals, mainly afternoon into evening. MVFR possible at times.
Sat: Showers become more likely. Possible thunderstorms, mainly
afternoon into evening. MVFR possible at times. S wind gusts 15-20
kt in the afternoon into evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure remains across northern New England today into
Wednesday and moves offshore Wednesday night. A long period of
easterly winds, increasing late tonight as low pressure begins
to approach to the south, will allow ocean seas to build to SCA
levels during Wednesday. An advisory has been issued for the
ocean waters for Wednesday. Small craft seas will likely
continue into Wednesday night and the advisory will likely be
extended. The non ocean waters will remain below advisory levels
today through Wednesday night.
Ocean seas are expected to lower under SCA criteria by late
Thursday night or early Friday morning, with sub-SCA conditions
then expected on all waters into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
While rain chances are elevated from Thursday into early next week,
no significant hydrologic impacts are expected. Locally heavy
downpours with any convective activity through the weekend may
produce minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches of Brooklyn, Queens, and southwestern Suffolk,
and a moderate risk at the ocean beaches of southeastern Suffolk
today.
Wednesday morning there will be a moderate risk for the
development of rip currents at the ocean beaches, increasing to
high during the afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...