000
FXUS61 KOKX 201619
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1219 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over northern New England remains into Wednesday,
and begins to move slowly offshore Wednesday night. The high
shifts farther east into the Atlantic on Thursday as a low over
the Southeast begins to drift north. This system tracks into the
Midwest by Saturday, lingering near the region into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this afternoon. Persistent upper trough
finally pushes offshore by this evening with rising heights to
the west as ridging builds into the Great Lakes.
There will be a weak surface trough across the interior this
afternoon, which may be just enough to focus a few showers. It
appears most of this activity will stay to our north so have
confined PoPs to the far northern interior. Otherwise, high
pressure builds over northern New England with a persistent
easterly flow. This will keep temperatures slightly below normal
in the lower and middle upper 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining showers will dissipate early this evening as the
surface trough dissipates, and heights rise with the upper ridge
building to the north. A marine layer will remain in place as
the easterly flow continues. Stratus may be more widespread
tonight as a shallow low level inversion sets ups. May be too
low with the cloud cover for tonight into Wednesday morning if
stratus does become widespread.
With surface high pressure moving offshore of the New England
coast Wednesday night and a cutoff low over the southeastern
states drifting northward, the chances of precipitation moving
into the southern portions of the forecast area will be
increasing. There is uncertainty with where the closed low will
drift and with high pressure to the north, precipitation may
remain south of the area Wednesday night. Temperatures continue
below normal as the east flow persists.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term. Much of the period is
expected to be unsettled with a blocking pattern in place.
Thursday is expected to be the coolest day of the period thanks
to continued easterly flow and the possibility of rain cooled
air as a cutoff low situated over the Southeast drifts north.
Still some uncertainty as to how much rain will actually make
into the region, as it will be fighting dry air associated with
the offshore high, though 00z guidance has trended wetter.
Nudged PoPs a bit above NBM on Thursday because of this; high
chance or likely for most of the region, increasing as you head
south. QPF has increased as well, with up to an inch possible in
some spots. The showers likely taper Thursday night, but rain
chances linger through the weekend and into early next week as
the low meanders nearby.
Late in the week, southerly flow develops with the region
sandwiched between the low tracking into the Midwest and
offshore high pressure. This should allow temperatures to warm
to more seasonable levels for late June. The southerly flow will
also allow for an increase in humidity levels as dew points
rise into the middle to upper 60s by Friday. The upper low
weakens into a trough late Friday and remains to the west of the
area Saturday, before potentially coming east into early next
week. The increase in humidity and the warmth will allow more in
the way of instability, with the potential for a few
thunderstorms, especially from NYC and points north and west
each afternoon from Friday onward. Beyond already noted, stuck
close to national blended guidance for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in place through the TAF period.
ENE to ESE winds less than 10 kt this morning should become more
ESE-SE across the board and closer to 10 kt this afternoon.
Winds should then diminish this evening and back more to the E.
MVFR cigs late this AM from the NYC metros north/west should
scatter mostly by 16Z, perhaps 17Z at the latest at KTEB/KLGA
downstream in ENE flow from Long Island Sound. Can`t rule out
a brief late afternoon shower at KSWF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty in how much low stratus redevelopment could occur
late tonight. MVFR cond possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Possible AM MVFR cigs, otherwise VFR. E winds
G15-20kt into the evening.
Thursday: Showers likely in the morning, possibly into the
afternoon. MVFR or lower cond possible at times. E winds G15-20
kt daytime/early evening.
Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. A tstm also
possible from the NYC metros north/west.
Saturday: Showers become more likely with MVFR cond at times.
Tstms also possible, mainly afternoon into evening. S winds
G15-20kt afternoon/evening.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure remains across northern New England today into
Wednesday and moves offshore Wednesday night. A long period of
easterly winds, increasing late tonight as low pressure begins
to approach to the south, will allow ocean seas to build to SCA
levels during Wednesday. An advisory has been issued for the
ocean waters for Wednesday. Small craft seas will likely
continue into Wednesday night and the advisory will likely be
extended. The non ocean waters will remain below advisory levels
today through Wednesday night.
Ocean seas are expected to lower under SCA criteria by late
Thursday night or early Friday morning, with sub-SCA conditions
then expected on all waters into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
While rain chances are elevated from Thursday into early next week,
no significant hydrologic impacts are expected. Locally heavy
downpours with any convective activity through the weekend may
produce minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches of Brooklyn, Queens, and southwestern Suffolk,
and a moderate risk at the ocean beaches of southeastern Suffolk
today.
Wednesday morning there will be a moderate risk for the
development of rip currents at the ocean beaches, increasing to
high during the afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BG/DR
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...