000
FXUS61 KOKX 222024
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
424 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine slides into the open Atlantic
tonight ahead of an approaching warm front. The front lifts through
the region Friday. Weak low pressure meanders over the Northeast
this weekend as frontal boundaries remain nearby. Another
series of frontal boundaries will affect the area from the
beginning to the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front remains to our south associated with a low over the
Carolinas. The low is expected to track to the north and west,
bringing the warm front closer tonight. A small wave of light
showers/drizzle is expected to trek across our eastern areas this
evening, but is looking a lot less than in previous model runs.

Cloud cover remains persistent into tonight due to the warm from
providing ample lift to our south. Moisture will increase overnight
from south to north with the warm front`s approach, leading to areas
of fog early Friday morning and increasing precip chances. Overnight
should steer clear of any widespread precip before Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A closed upper low tracks into the Ohio Valley on Friday, while at
the surface, a warm front lifts through the region. The day likely
begins on the showery side as the warm front moves through. Dew
points rise into the upper 60 to near 70 with southerly flow
developing post fropa in the morning. Most showers and thunderstorms
look to occur west of our area, with interior locations having a
better chance of precip than coastal locations. The warm front
should still provide enough lift to produce intermittent light to
moderate showers. The risk for excessive rainfall has been shifted
inland away from our area as most of the forecasted heavier precip
has trended in that direction. PWATs from multiple CAMs still bump
up into the 1.8-2" threshold, which would be near the max moving
average of 2" for this time of year. Due to this, rain chances still
reach likely thresholds for tomorrow. NBM continues to overdo precip
for Friday, just like it did today, so I stuck closer to our CONSALL
guidance for rain chances Friday, with some hand edits.

Temperatures will be warmer than Thursday with the region lying in
the warm sector, though still below normal values for late June.
Highs top out in the mid 70s for most, and remain mild overnight
into Saturday morning. Stuck close to NBM guidance for
temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure at the surface and frontal boundaries near the
forecast area this weekend will provide enough lift needed for
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the weekend. A weak upper
trough weakens as it moves toward the area from the west. However,
models have backed off on any widespread precipitation, and given
the poor performance of the models over the past couple of cycles in
regards to the recent rain, or lack thereof, any confidence in heavy
rainfall is low. Any heavy rain this weekend looks to be isolated,
with higher chances of occurring mainly north and west of New York
City. The NBM shows just under a 20% chance of 1.00" of rainfall in
24 hours for KJFK. Additionally, slightly lower PWAT values are
noted in the deterministic models, though peak values are still
around 2.00" across the area. So, while the overall average
precipitation for the weekend is lower, any heavy shower or
thunderstorm could still produce close to 2.00" of rainfall. But
again, the more likely place for this would be areas north and west.

Another cutoff develops over the central Great Lakes region Sunday
night into Monday. This cutoff low, along with its associated
frontal boundaries and upper trough will continue the chances for
precipitation for the beginning through the middle of next week as
it slowly moves east. This time frame appears to be a better chance
for heavier rain, but again, with the poor performance with the
models, it is low confidence at this point.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front slowly approaches the region through tonight and
slowly moves across on Friday.

Showers are not expected to be much in coverage through tonight,
scattered coverage occasionally. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected
and the forecast has ceilings lowering to IFR tonight with fog and
drizzle developing late. There will be potential for some terminals
to lower to LIFR overnight into early Friday morning with otherwise
IFR continuing. Conditions are forecast to improve to MVFR Friday
mid to late morning and into the afternoon. Rain showers are
forecast to increase Friday morning and continue during the day
Friday. Thunderstorms are also possible Friday afternoon into early
Friday evening with a lower chance of them Friday morning.

Winds will be NE-ENE near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt this
afternoon. The winds decrease to near 5-10 kt early this evening
with gusts subsiding. The winds become E-ESE later tonight into
Friday morning without much change in speed. Winds become SE near 10
kt Friday afternoon with a few possible gusts 15-20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR to LIFR timing could be 2-4 hours off from TAF. Timing of
showers could be 2-4 hours off and the showers may very well be
intermittent.

Gusts in TAF could be more occasional at times.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Friday Night: Showers and MVFR likely. IFR
possible. Chance of thunderstorms, mainly afternoon/evening. Any SE
gusts 15-20 kt diminish by the evening.

Saturday: Showers and MVFR likely. IFR possible. Possible
thunderstorms.

Sunday-Monday: Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR
or lower possible at times. S-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

Tuesday. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or
lower possible at times. S-SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA conds continue for all waters into this evening. Ideal fetch for
seas of 3 to 4 ft on LI Sound and 6 to 9 ft on the ocean. Winds
gradually subside below SCA this evening, with ocean seas following
suit by early Friday morning. Winds and seas look to remain below
SCA levels Friday.

Waves approach 5 ft on the ocean waters Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Waves may diminish Sunday night
into Monday, but then increase to SCA level Monday through
middle of next week with a prolonged period of southerly flow
ahead of an approaching frontal system.

Winds of 25 to 30 kt are now possible over most waters Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as the southerly flow increases with
the approach of the next frontal system. The harbor and Western sound
may remain below 25 kt however.  Thereafter, winds remain below 25
kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
With the lack of precipitation Wednesday through today (Thursday)
and recent poor model performance, the threat for flash flooding is
lower than previous forecasts. The Weather Prediction Center now
has a marginal risk mainly for areas north and west of New York City
for the weekend. Average forecast rainfall amounts through Saturday
afternoon are between 0.5-1.00". However, peak PWAT values are still
around 2.00", and any heavy shower or thunderstorm could produce 1
to 2 inches of rainfall. Better chances for excessive rainfall now
appears to be for the beginning into the middle of next week as
another frontal system slowly approaches the area. However, there is
still a good deal of uncertainty at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development for all ocean
beaches today with building easterly wind swell. Breaking surf
likely builds to 5 to 7 ft with a strong e to w longshore
component, which will likely also enhance beach erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...