000
FXUS61 KOKX 231111
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
711 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will approach today and lift through from late this
afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, weak low pressure will
meander over the Northeast this weekend as frontal boundaries
remain nearby. Another slow moving frontal system will impact
the area early next week. The front may push through next
Wednesday or Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Conds should be mostly dry this morning until a warm front to
the south makes its approach this afternoon and then passage
late today into this evening. Will have to monitor trends with
convection developing off the Delmarva. This area could
approach by mid-late morning, but instability is lower north of
the warm front. A band of showers and tstms should accompany the
front this afternoon and evening, with likely PoP fcst for a
good portion of the area except for SE CT and the forks of Long
Island. While best chances for thunder will be from the NYC
metro area north and west, PW near 1.75 inches and precip
efficiency values running nearly as high support idea of local
downpours with any organized shower activity anywhere in the CWA
accompanying the front this afternoon and evening.
Sct to numerous showers and possibly a tstm expected in the warm
sector later tonight as a shortwave over the interior Mid
Atlantic pivots around the closed low to the west toward the
area.
High temps will range from the lower 70s across coastal SE CT,
to the mid/upper 70s most elsewhere, to near 80 in urban NE NJ.
Low temps tonight should be a fairly uniform mid/upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm and muggy conditions expected as we remain in the warm
sector. with mainly diurnal showers/tstms likely both Sat and
Sunday afternoon/evening and especially NW of NYC. PW will
approach 2 inches at times, with high precip efficiency, so once
again heavy downpours are possible.
Temperatures will be warmer each day, with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s for Sat, and in the 80s throughout on Sat. Low
should remain a mostly uniform mid/upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term forecast Sunday night
through the middle of next week. The weather pattern will remain
unsettled with temperatures near seasonable levels.
Lingering energy from the first slow moving trough will likely
continue lifting across New England Sunday night. Another larger
trough that approaches from the Great Lakes Monday will amplify as
it slowly swings towards the region through Wednesday. This renewed
troughing will bring another frontal system and a continued
unsettled conditions into at least the middle of the week. The trend
on the models over the last several cycles is for the trough to
linger over the northeast into at least next Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening, but coverage looks greatest to our west closer to the lift
from the upper trough. Higher probabilities are continued to be
indicated on Tuesday into Tuesday night given the focus from the
associated frontal boundary and upper trough. These chances
continues into Wednesday and potentially Thursday, especially if the
trough axis and frontal system are slower to move through the
region. The pattern supports potential of minor urban and poor
drainage flooding. There is also potential for localized flash
flooding, especially if areas see multiple days of showers and
thunderstorms. However, recent poor model performance with
convection here has brought a lower forecast confidence with regards
to where any heavier rainfall totals could occur.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A warm front will approach today and start to lift through this
evening into tonight. Weak low pressure then meanders nearby
this weekend.
MVFR to IFR conditions to start the period this morning.
However, some southern CT and Lower Hudson Valley terminals
could briefly be VFR. Mainly MVFR is expected by the afternoon,
with a chance for brief VFR. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will
deteriorate this evening to IFR, potentially LIFR overnight into
early Saturday morning.
A shower is possible this morning with potential for a bit more
coverage of showers in the afternoon and early evening. Thunder
is also possible and have continued the PROB30 for TSRA for
early this evening for NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley
terminals. There may be a brief lull in showers after 00-02z
followed by increasing showers and possible thunderstorms early
Saturday morning. Have not included TSRA yet as confidence is
too low for this time period to include in TAF.
Light E-ESE winds this morning will become SE this afternoon
around 10 kt or less. The wind direction should start to shift
towards the S tonight into Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories. A brief
period of VFR is possible this afternoon.
Adjustments to timing of TSRA possible for late afternoon and
evening.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside
of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR or lower. Showers likely with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR and showers. Thunderstorms possible in
the afternoon and evening.
Monday: Showers likely with thunderstorms possible, especially
in the afternoon and evening. MVFR or lower possible at times.
S-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Tuesday. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or
lower possible at times. S-SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA has been cancelled for the ocean waters as swells have
fallen below 5 ft. Winds and seas look to remain below SCA
levels into Sunday night and then could begin to approach 25 kt
on the ocean waters late Monday into Monday night, but more
likely on Tuesday as southerly flow increases with the approach
of the next frontal system. Seas may also build close to 5 ft,
especially late Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible each day into early next
week, and minor flooding could occur. Any hydrologic impacts
early next week could be determined by the extent of the
rainfall today into this weekend. WPC currently has mainly the
western half of the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall each day through Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development for all
ocean beaches for today through Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...