000
FXUS61 KOKX 231457
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will approach today and lift through this evening.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure will meander over the Northeast
this weekend as frontal boundaries remain nearby. Another slow
moving frontal system will impact the area early next week. The
front may push through next Wednesday or Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Aloft, there will be some mid level height falls throughout today as
a ridge moves offshore and a trough approaches from the west. At the
surface, a warm front will continue to slowly approach from the
south. Ahead of the front, there will continue to be ESE-SE flow
that will keep a cooler more stable maritime environment in place.
Without much synoptic forcing today, the shower coverage will grow
in areas that are forecast to get more unstable. Highest model
surface instability is shown to occur across the more interior parts
of the region across parts of interior NE NJ and parts of the Lower
Hudson Valley. This is where there will also be a chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon with otherwise a slight chance of
thunderstorms farther south and east towards the coastal parts of
the region around NYC into Nassau NY and SW Fairfield CT. Farther
east, thunderstorms were not mentioned at all in the forecast.
Increasing chances and coverage of rain showers for western areas of
the forecast region today, mainly Nassau County NY and Fairfield CT
to the west while to the east showers will be less coverage, more
isolated. These western areas had their temperatures lowered because
of more shower activity moving in today.
The mesoscale convective models have varied with individual shower
development timing and location but overall exhibit a coverage
increase to at least scattered for much of the area mid to late this
afternoon. There are already some showers moving across parts of the
region late this morning.
Outside of interior SE CT, slightly lowered max temps by blending in
with consensus of MOS. Max temperatures cooler along coast with the
onshore flow. Long Island high temperatures mainly in the lower 70s
with mid 70s to upper 70s for majority of the remainder of the
forecast region forecast today.
Sct to numerous showers and possibly a tstm expected in the warm
sector later tonight as a shortwave over the interior Mid
Atlantic pivots around the closed low to the west toward the
area.
Low temperatures tonight should be a fairly uniform mid/upper
60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm and muggy conditions expected as we remain in the warm
sector. with mainly diurnal showers/tstms likely both Sat and
Sunday afternoon/evening and especially NW of NYC. PW will
approach 2 inches at times, with high precip efficiency, so once
again heavy downpours are possible.
Temperatures will be warmer each day, with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s for Sat, and in the 80s throughout on Sat. Low
should remain a mostly uniform mid/upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term forecast Sunday night
through the middle of next week. The weather pattern will remain
unsettled with temperatures near seasonable levels.
Lingering energy from the first slow moving trough will likely
continue lifting across New England Sunday night. Another larger
trough that approaches from the Great Lakes Monday will amplify as
it slowly swings towards the region through Wednesday. This renewed
troughing will bring another frontal system and a continued
unsettled conditions into at least the middle of the week. The trend
on the models over the last several cycles is for the trough to
linger over the northeast into at least next Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening, but coverage looks greatest to our west closer to the lift
from the upper trough. Higher probabilities are continued to be
indicated on Tuesday into Tuesday night given the focus from the
associated frontal boundary and upper trough. These chances
continues into Wednesday and potentially Thursday, especially if the
trough axis and frontal system are slower to move through the
region. The pattern supports potential of minor urban and poor
drainage flooding. There is also potential for localized flash
flooding, especially if areas see multiple days of showers and
thunderstorms. However, recent poor model performance with
convection here has brought a lower forecast confidence with regards
to where any heavier rainfall totals could occur.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A warm front will approach this afternoon and start to lift
through this evening into tonight. Weak low pressure then
meanders nearby this weekend.
Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions this afternoon. Any MVFR
conditions will deteriorate this evening to IFR, potentially
LIFR overnight into early Saturday morning as the warm front
passes through.
Showers this afternoon into early evening. Isolated thunder is
also possible but have removed from the TAFs since probabilities
are low. Any isolated TS activity should be across the interior
and confined west of the NYC metro or Lower Hudson Valley.
There may be a brief lull in showers after 00-02z followed by
increasing showers and possible thunderstorms again early
Saturday morning. Have not included TSRA yet as confidence is
too low for this time period to include in TAF.
Light E-ESE winds will become SE this afternoon around 10 kt or
less. The wind direction should start to shift towards the S
tonight into Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories. A brief
period of VFR is possible this afternoon.
Adjustments to timing of TSRA possible for late afternoon and
evening.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside
of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: MVFR or lower. Showers likely with possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday: Chance of MVFR and showers. Thunderstorms possible in
the afternoon and evening.
Monday: Showers likely with thunderstorms possible, especially
in the afternoon and evening. MVFR or lower possible at times.
S-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Tuesday. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. MVFR or
lower possible at times. S-SE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas look to remain below SCA levels into Sunday
night and then could begin to approach 25 kt on the ocean waters
late Monday into Monday night, but more likely on Tuesday as
southerly flow increases with the approach of the next frontal
system. Seas may also build close to 5 ft, especially late
Monday through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Locally heavy rainfall is possible each day into early next
week, and minor flooding could occur especially in poor drainage
and low lying areas. Particularly through tonight, precipitable
waters will be increasing from near 1.75 inches to near 2
inches, allowing for heavy downpours with showers and especially
any thunderstorms that form.
Any hydrologic impacts early next week could be determined by
the extent of the rainfall today into this weekend. WPC
currently has mainly the western half of the area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall each day through Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development for all
ocean beaches for today through Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD/DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...