000
FXUS61 KOKX 241959
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak trough remains near the region through the weekend.
Another trough of low pressure approaches from the west on
Monday, followed by another stalled complex frontal system
through mid week. The frontal boundaries likely progress to the
northeast on Friday or sometime late in the week as weak high
pressure may briefly settle in.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Showers will continue this evening before tapering off tonight
with the loss of diurnal heating. Still can`t completely rule
out a rumble of thunder, but so far any convection has been
limited to well south and west of the area. The best chances for
showers will remain across the Lower Hudson Valley and
Northeast New Jersey in the vicinity of the surface trough. Once
this activity winds down the remainder of the night is expected
to remain dry.
Conditions will remain muggy overnight, with temperatures only
falling into the mid to upper 60s. Some typically warmer
locations in and around NYC may struggle to fall below 70. With
plenty of moisture remaining in the low levels, expect at least
some fog to redevelop. The best chances look to be along the
coast and across the interior.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry conditions are expected to start the day on Sunday before
showers and thunderstorms redevelop towards late morning as
additional energy rotates through the base of the trough aloft.
Once again the best chances for showers and storms will be north
and west of New York City, across the Lower Hudson Valley and
Northeast New Jersey. As has been the case for the past few
days, given the moist atmospheric profile, any storm that does
develop will be capable of producing localized heavy rain. Can`t
rule out some minor flooding in low lying or poor drainage
areas as storm motions look to be a bit slower on Sunday.
While the bulk of the showers and storms will taper off Sunday
evening with the loss of diurnal heating, unsettled conditions
will linger through the overnight hours as the next system
gradually draws closer to the area.
Daytime highs will range from the low to mid 80s away from the
immediate coastline, while overnight lows will again remain in
the mid to upper 60s. With no change in airmass, fog may develop
again Sunday night, but have not included it in the grids at
this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper level trough is expected to reform across the
Northern Appalachians and Northern Mid Atlantic / NE states
through mid week. It is not expected to progress east until
perhaps Fri / Sat and the start of next weekend. Any subsequent
ridging in the mid and upper levels will likely be short lived
or fairly flat and transient as later next weekend the global
guidance has another trough forming just upstream. Thus, the
longwave pattern continues to point to an unsettled and humid
pattern continuing.
Look for an unsettled period through the long term, with the
only chance of a brief reprieve and perhaps more intervals of
sunshine overall towards Fri / Sat. With a mid level trough
reforming look for the chances for showers and any t-storm
activity to begin to increase late Mon. At this point based on
the synoptic mid level significant levels (500 and 700 mb) look
for the higher chances of perhaps more widespread unsettled
conditions for Tue and Wed, and possibly Thu as well based on
how things progress. Therefore the mid week period has the
higher chance of having more coverage overall with shower and
scattered t-storm activity.
Please see the Hydrology section for the latest on heavy
rainfall potential and excessive rainfall risk into next week.
Look for daily max temps to average below normal with a good
deal of daytime cloud cover anticipated on average throughout
the period. There may be a day towards Fri or Sat where daytime
temps may get closer to normal. Night minimums should average
close to normal with higher humidity and a good chance of night
time cloud cover.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak low pressure trough will linger over western portions of
the Tri-State area through the weekend and into next week.
Varying flight categories into this evening. Widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions continue over KISP/KGON with MVFR and some
VFR western terminals. Flight categories improve this afternoon
to VFR in some cases but across eastern areas, may stay
IFR/LIFR.
Scattered showers/tstms possible this evening through 23z but
coverage is limited and should decrease this evening.
Fog and low stratus with IFR/LIFR conditions are likely again
after midnight tonight especially for eastern terminals.
Light SE winds become S 5-10 kt through the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled amendments likely through the TAF period for varying
flight categories.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: Chance of showers/MVFR. Afternoon/evening tstms
possible.
Monday: Showers likely. Tstms possible, especially
afternoon/evening. MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. S-SE winds
G15-20kt.
Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered showers and a slight chance
of tstms. MVFR or lower possible at times. S-SE winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Both winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Sunday night. Patchy fog is possible again tonight on
all waters with the possible exception of NY Harbor.
Look for at least marginal, if not small craft conditions to
become increasingly prevalent towards late in the day Monday and
Monday night. Ocean seas begin to approach 5 ft and more
widespread small craft gusts look more likely out on the ocean.
Into Tuesday the chance for small craft conditions to include
the non-ocean waters increases on a deeper southerly flow /
fetch. Similar conditions with small craft or marginal small
craft conditions expected to last through the mid week. Seas
begin to approach 6 ft on the ocean Wednesday and Wednesday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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With a non-progressive synoptic pattern that includes
stationary boundaries in close proximity and with the first
prolonged humid air mass of the season locked in, there should
remain a localized / isolated threat for potential hydrologic
impacts from showers associated with embedded thunderstorm
activity. This marginal threat would be for urban locations and
for the western and northwestern portions of the area for the
most part. The Colorado State machine learning algorithms have
marginal risk for the majority of the area, with more of a
slight risk signal for mainly the western half of the area
through the next several days. Meanwhile, WPC maintains a
marginal risk for at least the western portion of the area
through Day 5, with the marginal risk generally getting further
east with time. In summary, there appears to be little day to
day variation in the excessive rainfall risk through Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development for all
ocean beaches through Sunday due to a continuation of 3-ft
southerly swells.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/JE
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...FEB/JE
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...