000
FXUS61 KOKX 261959
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A surface trough will impact the area tonight. A slow moving
frontal system will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms
through the middle of the week. Weak high pres builds in for
Friday. Another frontal system may approach for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Shwrs and tstms continue to develop across NJ and PA this aftn.

SBCAPE around 2500 J/kg in those areas. CAPE was a little less
in the CWA, with around 1500 in NJ and up to 2000 in spots in
interior CT. The Hudson Valley was still recovering, but it
seems reasonable that they should shoot up to at least 1500 in
the next few hours. Higher may be difficult with the thick
cirrus blowoff moving in.

As a result, additional tstms should develop in and near wrn
portions of the cwa into this eve. Will keep sct coverage max
across CT with less forcing.

Tstms track newd per modeled storm motion, encroaching on more
stable coastal areas including NYC. Challenge will be how
strong and far storms are able to maintain into this more stable
airmass.

Pops for this aftn and eve have been reduced to slight chance
for most of LI into ern CT, with mainly chance/sct pops
elsewhere thru the period. Likely probs for the Hudson Valley
thru NJ.

The main svr threat will be large hail and damaging winds. Wind
threat will be higher than earlier today with greater
instability and convection rooted in the BL.

After convection this aftn/eve, the focus becomes the upr low
over Lake Huron and the associated wave east of Lake Erie. Went
close to the NAM for pops with this to try to get some decent
timing. There is still room for adjustment as the activity
evolves, but it essentially looks like a round of shwrs and
tstms traversing the cwa overnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Residual shwrs and tstms possible in the mrng, then additional
activity likely to develop thru the day as the upr low reaches
wrn NY state. Difficult to pinpoint the exact timing and
location of storms attm, but wrn areas are most likely to be
favored based on the pattern. There could be an elevated flood
threat in those wrn areas, depending on how things pan out thru
tngt.

Additional shwrs and tstms possible Tue ngt as the upr trof
axis approaches. A lack of instability should limit the hvy
rain and svr threat however.

The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The NBM with local adjustments was used for the extended.

A few diurnal shwrs and tstms possible on Wed with late June sun
and the upr trof slowly passing thru and exiting the region.
Model timing issues with the exact speed of the upr feature, and
there could be some additional activity on Thu, particularly ern
areas, if the slower GFS verifies.

For Fri, weak high pres builds in. At least dry to start. Based
on current trends, the next upr trof may get here too late to
spark activity, but the blended approach still yield aftn
chances.

The next upr low tracks across Ontario over the weekend, so
additional chances for shwrs and tstms.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front will remain nearby, nearly stationary through the TAF
period.

An area of showers and thunderstorms that developed just south of
the metro terminals will move through between 20-21Z and then move
into the Lower Hudson Valley through 22-23Z. Gusty winds of 40 kt or
higher are possible with these storms, along with hail. However,
given uncertainty where the highest winds will be, kept gusts to 25
kt with these storms.

VFR conditions outside of any showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. MVFR or lower as fog and low stratus affects the forecast
area once again tonight. Best chances for MVFR is after 00Z-01Z,
then IFR or lower is possible after 03Z. These conditions will occur
a few hours earlier for terminals along the coast.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be around 10 kt during the day
today out of the S to SE, weakening to under 10 kt tonight.
Slightly stronger winds of 10 to 15 kt by mid Tuesday morning.

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently pushing northeast of
the metro terminals will move through the Lower Hudson Valley
through around 20Z. Another area of showers and thunderstorms is
currently developing to the southwest over western central and New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania will also head northeast this
afternoon. This area of showers and thunderstorms looks like it
could lift north of and bypass the metro terminals, but will likely
affect KSWF. However, will have to monitor those storms and their
development and if the path or coverage of the storms change, then
will include TEMPO for TSRA. They could could affect KEWR around
20Z. Thereafter, the best chances for showers looks to be after 00Z,
but there is uncertainty as to how much thunder will occur with
these storms. Better chances for thunder come Tuesday morning into
the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to uncertainty in thunderstorms coverage.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday: Showers. Tstms with gusty winds and
hail possible, especially afternoon/evening. MVFR cond expected, IFR
possible.

Thursday: Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms. MVFR or
lower possible at times.

Friday: Becoming VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing southerly flow helps build seas to around 5 ft
tonight. Winds may also come close to 25 kt on the ocean,
especially on Tuesday with seas 5 to 7 ft. A SCA has been issued
thru Tue ngt. Seas are expected to remain elevated into
Wednesday night decreasing during the day on Thursday.
Conditions then largely remain below SCA through the rest of the
period, with the possibility of 5 ft waves over the ocean
waters Friday night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There is a continued risk of minor flooding and localized flash
flooding into tonight in showers and thunderstorms. WPC has a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area with
a slight risk across interior NE NJ and interior Lower Hudson
Valley.

A localized risk of flash flooding continues on Tuesday, mainly
across NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. This threat could end
up being a bit higher depending on how much rainfall the area
receives tngt. Regardless, locally heavy rainfall is possible
in any showers or thunderstorms which could produce minor
flooding.

Hydrologic impacts are also possible Wednesday into Thursday,
but may be dependent on where the heaviest rainfall occurs
through Tuesday.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip current development continues for all ocean
beaches today. The risk is high on Tuesday due to stronger
southerly flow and higher seas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...