000
FXUS61 KOKX 271515
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1115 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will impact the area through the
middle of the week. Weak high pressure builds in for Friday.
Another frontal system may approach for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shwrs developing across the wrn third of the cwa this mrng. The
rain should last there at least a few hours, although the
intensity is low due to a lack of instability. No other major
changes attm, although it would not be surprising to see LI and
CT get into some tstms later today if the sun breaks out, as
the axis of convection modeled by the NAM for the present time
is much further east into MA.
An upper level trough continues to sit over the northeast and
slowly move eastward. Surface low pressure is situated to our
north and west and keeping our area in a warm, moist southerly
flow. Multiple shortwaves moving through aloft today and the
approach of a cold front will allow for more showers and
thunderstorms. The SPC has outlined far western locations of
our area in a marginal risk of severe weather, with the primary
threat being damaging winds. There is also a localized risk of
flash flooding, see the hydro section below. The bulk of the
activity looks to exit the area before midnight tonight.
Today will be another muggy day. Highs will be in the 70s to
low 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy. Temperatures only drop into the mid 60s
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front likely stalls over or near the
area on Wednesday. Upper level trough axis will be just to our
west and more showers and thunderstorms are expected. Currently
expecting any thunderstorms to be below severe criteria and
lower in coverage than today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer
than today, but high dewpoints continue along with mostly cloudy
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The NBM with local adjustments was used for the extended.
There could be some additional activity on Thu, particularly
ern areas, if the slower GFS verifies.
For Fri, weak high pres builds in. At least dry to start. Based
on current trends, the next upr trof may get here too late to
spark activity, but the blended approach still yield aftn
chances.
The next upr low tracks across Ontario over the weekend, so
additional chances for shwrs and tstms.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A slow moving frontal system lingers nearby with weak low pressure
developing late tonight into Wednesday.
Going back and forth mainly from VFR to IFR until about 17 to 18z.
Have TEMPO group for showers moving through for the late morning,
with this activity expected to push north and dissipate for the
early afternoon. Much of the afternoon is expected to be dry. Have
shra/TSTMs in TAFs with TEMPO groups towards 00z, mainly from the
city terminals to points west.
S to SE winds increasing to 10-15kt this afternoon, diminishing
tonight outside of any thunderstorms. The winds then have a more
westerly component to them, with SW winds expected late tonight into
the Wed AM push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
SHRA and iso TSTM possible throughout today. There is a greater
probability of TSRA towards the evening push.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Improving to mostly VFR in the morning, then
shra/TSTMs/MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening
Thursday: Mainly VFR. CHC of shra/TSTM/MVFR in the afternoon, mainly
north of the city.
Friday through Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mainly VFR Friday with a chance of MVFR. MVFR to IFR Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The SCA has been extended through Wednesday on the ocean for
seas 5-7 ft in a persistent southerly flow. There will also be
a brief period early today of 25 kt gusts across the eastern
ocean zone. Seas are expected to remain elevated into Wednesday
night decreasing during the day on Thursday. Conditions then
largely remain below SCA through the rest of the period, with
the possibility of 5 ft waves over the ocean waters Friday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A localized risk of flash flooding continues today, mainly
across NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. Orange County and
northern Passaic County received 2-4 inches of rain on Monday,
with other Counties in these areas receiving around an inch.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon and into the evening and could bring a widespread
half an inch, with localized higher amounts.
Hydrologic impacts are also possible Wednesday into Thursday,
but may be dependent on where the heaviest rainfall occurs
through today.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk is high today and Wednesday due to stronger
southerly flow and higher seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...