000
FXUS61 KOKX 271812
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
212 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will impact the area through the
middle of the week. Weak high pressure builds in for Friday.
Another frontal system may approach for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Last of the mrng/early aftn shwrs and tstms have exited the area.
The focus is now on any additional initiation this aftn.
After a brief period of compensation subsidence and low CAPE,
areas of clearing should allow for instability to increase a bit
thru the end of the day with little to no CIN. The NAM seems to
be underestimating SBCAPE to the sw of the cwea per LAPS, so
will expect up to around 1000 J/kg to develop thru this aftn
across the cwa. This would put most areas in play for isold-sct
development thru 00Z. Favored areas west of the Hudson,
particulary NJ zones with tstms already showing up over PA. Bulk
shear is fairly weak, so multicellular should be the main mode
for tstms. Main threat today would be damaging winds.
Storm motions is progged to be only around 5 kt thru this eve,
so there will be an isold flood threat in any heavier activity.
As the strongest mid and upr lvl winds depart early this eve,
activity expected to be mainly tied to the approach of the mid
lvl trof axis, which was over wrn PA this aftn, as well as any
convective outflows and boundaries around the cwa. Have keep
pops in the sct category for the overnight period due to the
lack of any jet forcing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front likely stalls over or near the area on Wednesday.
Upper level trough axis will be just to our west and more
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Currently expecting any
thunderstorms to be below severe criteria and lower in coverage
than today. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than today, but
high dewpoints continue along with mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The NBM with local adjustments was used for the extended.
There could be some additional activity on Thu, particularly
ern areas, if the slower GFS verifies.
For Fri, weak high pres builds in. At least dry to start. Based
on current trends, the next upr trof may get here too late to
spark activity, but the blended approach still yield aftn
chances.
The next upr low tracks across Ontario over the weekend, so
additional chances for shwrs and tstms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A slow moving frontal system lingers nearby with weak low pressure
developing late tonight into Wednesday.
Any lingering sub VFR conditions are expected to gradually dissipate
this afternoon where sub VFR has been stubborn to dissipate.
Otherwise, prevailing VFR until a line of showers and thunderstorms
approaches towards 22-0z for city and western most terminals. Thus
expecting this afternoon to be predominantly dry. Have shra/TSTMs in
TAFs with TEMPO groups towards 00z, mainly from the city terminals
to points west. Questions remain as to how far east any showers and
storms can get this evening as thunderstorm survival is less likely
further east.
S to SSE winds increasing to 10-15kt this afternoon, diminishing
tonight outside of any thunderstorms. The winds go light and
variable late tonight at most terminals. The winds then have a more
westerly component to them towards daybreak and increase some out of
the SW Wed morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High uncertainty as to how far east any thunderstorms can get this
evening. Have maintained TEMPO for TSRA in TAFs, with amendments
remaining a good possibility for timing and possibly occurrence for
KJFK and KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday afternoon: Mostly VFR, with TSTMs and brief MVFR possible
until evening in any storms.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. CHC of shra/TSTM/MVFR in the afternoon, mainly
north of the city.
Friday through Saturday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Mainly VFR Friday with a chance of MVFR. MVFR to IFR Saturday.
Sunday: MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The SCA has been extended through Wednesday on the ocean for
seas 5-7 ft in a persistent southerly flow. There will also be
a brief period early today of 25 kt gusts across the eastern
ocean zone. Seas are expected to remain elevated into Wednesday
night decreasing during the day on Thursday. Conditions then
largely remain below SCA through the rest of the period, with
the possibility of 5 ft waves over the ocean waters Friday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A localized risk of flash flooding continues today, mainly
across NE NJ and the lower Hudson Valley. Orange County and
northern Passaic County received 2-4 inches of rain on Monday,
with other counties in these areas receiving around an inch.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected into
the evening and could bring a widespread half an inch, with
localized higher amounts.
Hydrologic impacts are also possible Wednesday into Thursday,
but may be dependent on where the heaviest rainfall occurs
through today.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip risk is high today and Wednesday due to stronger
southerly flow and higher seas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...