000
FXUS61 KOKX 281001
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lingers over the area today and pushes east
overnight. Brief high pressure builds in for the end of the week.
An upper level disturbance will approach late Friday. A slow
moving warm front will then approach on Saturday, pass through on
Sunday, then will be followed by a weak cold front Sunday night.
Weak troughs of low pressure will then be nearby for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some showers continue to move from south to north through far
eastern portions of our area. This activity likely lasts the
next few hours. Have adjusted PoPs to capture this.
An upper level trough continues to linger over the eastern CONUS,
with the axis just to our west through the day today. At the
surface, the center of low pressure is well to our north, with a
frontal boundary extending south. This boundary will remain near or
over the area today.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening, with the greater PoPs being across the
western half of the area. Although around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE, shear
will be weak and severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.
Pwats are still high, around 1.5-1.6 inches. Moderate to heavy rain
is possible in any shower or storm. See the hydrology section below.
Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday,
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints remain in the
upper 60s.
The aforementioned frontal boundary and upper level trough axis push
through overnight allowing for a break in the persistent southerly
flow we have been seeing. Some drier air will be able to advect in
under a W-NW flow. Any showers or thunderstorms should be east of
the area by midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief high pressure will build in to finish the week along with
building heights aloft. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s
expected both Thursday and Friday.
Weak low pressure and upper level shortwave will approach from the
west on Friday. Have trended lower with PoPs for friday afternoon
and expect this trend to continue as the greatest lift looks to be
west of the area in the latest guidance. There does look to be some
instability, so if anything were to get going then thunder would be
possible. Have capped PoPs at slight chance.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow aloft becomes slightly cyclonic Friday evening.
Combined with lower level instability, a slight chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in the from around the city to points west. A warm
front then approaches on Saturday and should still be positioned
just to our south by Sunday morning. After a chance of showers and
the morning, showers become likely for much of the area with a
chance of thunderstorms. The warm front lifts on Sunday, putting us
in the warm sector. More humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then more likely in the afternoon, especially north and
west of the city. A trailing cold front then passes through late in
the night with additional chances of a shower or thunderstorm.
Weak high pressure will be in place for Monday and Tuesday with
still slightly cyclonic flow aloft and possibly weak surface troughs
setting up nearby. Expecting diurnally driven chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Most of both days at least appear to be dry.
Temperatures through the long term are from the deterministic
NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough remains over the region into this evening before
shifting east as a weak cold front overnight.
Varying conditions once again through the morning push, with
the city terminals mainly VFR and IFR/MVFR elsewhere during this
time. VFR then prevails in the afternoon into evening outside of
any showers/thunderstorms.
Light S to variable winds during the morning push. SW to W winds
then follow late in the morning as they increase in speed
averaging around 10kt in the afternoon. Winds veer farther this
evening and overnight with light NW winds overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO or prevailing IFR/MVFR possible for mainly KJFK through the
morning push. Timing of potential shra/TSTMs may be off by and hour
or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Late Tonight: VFR, but IFR/MVFR possible for KGON.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely, mainly in the afternoons and
evenings. Chance of a TSTM in the afternoons and evenings.
Mostly VFR, but MVFR/IFR possible in showers and storms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in affect through tonight. Winds will
be well below criteria, but a persistent southerly flow has allowed
seas to build to 5-7 ft. The SCA may be able to be taken down
earlier than forecast tonight, especially across the western ocean
zone. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the end of the
week with the area under a weak pressure gradient.
Mainly quiet conditions continue for the long term, with winds
and seas remaining below SCA criteria.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With a similar environment as the last few days, moderate to heavy
rainfall is possible in any showers or thunderstorms. Pwats are
still around 1.5-1.6 inches and storm motion is expected to be slow.
Coverage is expected to be less than the past few days, so the flood
threat is even more localized today. The WPC has outlined portions
of western CT and the Lower Hudson Valley in a marginal risk in the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Mainly minor hydrologic impacts will be possible this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a southerly flow continuing and building seas, the rip current
risk today is high. The risk lowers to moderate on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...