000
FXUS61 KOKX 281456
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1056 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lingers over the area today and pushes east
overnight. Brief high pressure builds in for the end of the week.
An upper level disturbance will approach late Friday. A slow
moving warm front will then approach on Saturday, pass through on
Sunday, then will be followed by a weak cold front Sunday night.
Weak troughs of low pressure will then be nearby for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough continues to linger over the eastern CONUS,
with the axis just to our west through the afternoon. At the
surface, the center of low pressure is well to our north, with a
frontal boundary extending south. This boundary will remain
near or over the area this afternoon.
Radar coverage with any showers / t-storms should remain minimal
for the next few hours. However, once some clearing takes shape
into the first half of the afternoon look for shower and t-storm
activity to pop up more frequently. This should be the case
especially just north and northwest of the city. Any broken line
or clusters of activity should then swing east and northeast
later in the day and early evening. The latest CAMs do not look
impressive in terms of coverage or organization. WPC only has a
general t-storm category over the area and does not have a
marginal risk at the present time. However, one or two storms
may become on the stronger side with small hail, lightning,
brief heavy rain, and sub severe wind gusts as instability
builds a bit with daytime heating. With up to 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE, weak shear and thus severe thunderstorms are not
expected at this time. Pwats are still high, around 1.5-1.6
inches. Moderate to heavy rain is possible in any shower or
storm. See the hydrology section below.
Activity is expected to wane this evening with the setting of
the sun and loss of diurnal heating. The aforementioned frontal
boundary and upper level trough axis push through overnight
allowing for a break in the persistent southerly flow we have
been seeing. Some drier air will be able to advect in under a
W-NW flow. Any showers or thunderstorms should be east of the
area by midnight.
Temperatures this afternoon should be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s. Lows tonight should be in the 60s, with
middle and upper 60s across the NE NJ and NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief high pressure will build in to finish the week along with
building heights aloft. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s
expected both Thursday and Friday.
Weak low pressure and upper level shortwave will approach from the
west on Friday. Have trended lower with PoPs for friday afternoon
and expect this trend to continue as the greatest lift looks to be
west of the area in the latest guidance. There does look to be some
instability, so if anything were to get going then thunder would be
possible. Have capped PoPs at slight chance.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow aloft becomes slightly cyclonic Friday evening.
Combined with lower level instability, a slight chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in the from around the city to points west. A warm
front then approaches on Saturday and should still be positioned
just to our south by Sunday morning. After a chance of showers and
the morning, showers become likely for much of the area with a
chance of thunderstorms. The warm front lifts on Sunday, putting us
in the warm sector. More humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then more likely in the afternoon, especially north and
west of the city. A trailing cold front then passes through late in
the night with additional chances of a shower or thunderstorm.
Weak high pressure will be in place for Monday and Tuesday with
still slightly cyclonic flow aloft and possibly weak surface troughs
setting up nearby. Expecting diurnally driven chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Most of both days at least appear to be dry.
Temperatures through the long term are from the deterministic
NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough remains over the region into this evening before
shifting east as a weak cold front overnight.
City terminals mainly VFR, with IFR/MVFR elsewhere into early
this afternoon, then VFR prevails for the rest of the afternoon
into evening outside of any showers/thunderstorms. KGON still
has sub-IFR conditions at times with residual rain showers and
fog until 17Z.
Westerly winds less than 10 kts and variable direction for some
terminals will average around 10 kt this afternoon.
KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP will be more S-SW this afternoon. Winds veer
this evening and overnight with light NW winds overnight under 10
kts.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of potential shra/TSTMs may be off by and hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely, mainly in the afternoons and
evenings. Chance of a TSTM in the afternoons and evenings.
Mostly VFR, but MVFR/IFR possible in showers and storms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in affect through tonight. Winds will
be well below criteria, but a persistent southerly flow has allowed
seas to build to 5-7 ft. The SCA may be able to be taken down
earlier than forecast tonight, especially across the western ocean
zone. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the end of the
week with the area under a weak pressure gradient.
Mainly quiet conditions continue for the long term, with winds
and seas remaining below SCA criteria.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With a similar environment as the last few days, moderate to heavy
rainfall is possible in any showers or thunderstorms. Pwats are
still around 1.5-1.6 inches and storm motion is expected to be slow.
Coverage is expected to be less than the past few days, so the flood
threat is even more localized today. The WPC has outlined portions
of western CT and the Lower Hudson Valley in a marginal risk in the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Mainly minor hydrologic impacts will be possible this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a southerly flow continuing and building seas, the rip current
risk today is high. The risk lowers to moderate on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...