000
FXUS61 KOKX 281810
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
210 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary lingers over the area this afternoon and this
evening, and pushes east overnight. Brief high pressure builds
in for the end of the week. An upper level disturbance will
approach late Friday. A slow moving warm front will then
approach on Saturday, pass through on Sunday, then will be
followed by a weak cold front Sunday night. Weak troughs of low
pressure will then be nearby for Monday and Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough continues to linger over the eastern CONUS,
with the axis just to our west through the afternoon. At the
surface, the center of low pressure remains well to our north,
with a frontal boundary extending south and bisecting the area
for the most part. This boundary will remain near or over the
area this afternoon.
Showers and a couple of storms have formed along the sea breeze
initiated boundary in the vicinity of the north shore of LI.
Also some activity has been scattered across primarily western
portion of Lower Hudson Valley and into Western NE NJ. Tops have
been limited with a lack of mid level lapse rate support
overall. Should continue with isolated to scattered t-storm
activity through early this evening. SPC mesoscale analysis with
RAP forecast out to 6 hours, along with HREF PMM guidance
suggest activity may be more concentrated over interior Southern
CT into the early evening. WPC only has a general t-storm
category over the area and does not have a marginal risk at the
present time. However, one or two storms may become on the
stronger side with small hail, lightning, brief heavy rain, and
sub severe wind gusts as instability builds a bit with daytime
heating. With up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE, weak shear and thus
severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Pwats are
still high, around 1.5-1.6 inches. Moderate to heavy rain is
possible in any shower or storm. See the hydrology section
below.
Activity is expected to wane this evening with the setting of
the sun and loss of diurnal heating. The aforementioned frontal
boundary and upper level trough axis push through overnight
allowing for a break in the persistent southerly flow we have
been seeing. Some drier air will be able to advect in under a
W-NW flow. Any showers or thunderstorms should be east of the
area by midnight.
Temperatures this afternoon should be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s. Lows tonight should be in the 60s, with
middle and upper 60s across the NE NJ and NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief high pressure will build in to finish the week along with
building heights aloft. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s
expected both Thursday and Friday.
Weak low pressure and upper level shortwave will approach from the
west on Friday. Have trended lower with PoPs for friday afternoon
and expect this trend to continue as the greatest lift looks to be
west of the area in the latest guidance. There does look to be some
instability, so if anything were to get going then thunder would be
possible. Have capped PoPs at slight chance.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A nearly zonal flow aloft becomes slightly cyclonic Friday evening.
Combined with lower level instability, a slight chance of a shower
or thunderstorm in the from around the city to points west. A warm
front then approaches on Saturday and should still be positioned
just to our south by Sunday morning. After a chance of showers and
the morning, showers become likely for much of the area with a
chance of thunderstorms. The warm front lifts on Sunday, putting us
in the warm sector. More humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then more likely in the afternoon, especially north and
west of the city. A trailing cold front then passes through late in
the night with additional chances of a shower or thunderstorm.
Weak high pressure will be in place for Monday and Tuesday with
still slightly cyclonic flow aloft and possibly weak surface troughs
setting up nearby. Expecting diurnally driven chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Most of both days at least appear to be dry.
Temperatures through the long term are from the deterministic
NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front moves across this evening and will continue to move
east of the area through the rest of the TAF period with high
pressure to the west of the area.
There is some lingering IFR stratus across KGON with otherwise
mainly VFR conditions across the area outside of any showers and
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms towards the
latter half of this afternoon into early this evening could
result in temporary MVFR to possibly very brief IFR conditions.
Tonight into Thursday, some residual smoke and haze is not
expected to significantly reduce visibilities, just have 6sm and
haze to conclude TAFs.
The winds will become more W-SW near 10 kts on average this
afternoon, decreasing to less than 10 kts tonight into Thursday.
The wind direction becomes more NW tonight and then will
transition Thursday to more sea breezes for coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be 1-2 hours off from
TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon - Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely, mainly in the afternoons and
evenings. Chance of a TSTM in the afternoons and evenings.
Mostly VFR, but MVFR/IFR possible in showers and storms.
Monday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in affect through tonight. Winds will
be well below criteria, but a persistent southerly flow has allowed
seas to build to 5-7 ft. The SCA may be able to be taken down
earlier than forecast tonight, especially across the western ocean
zone. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the end of the
week with the area under a weak pressure gradient.
Mainly quiet conditions continue for the long term, with winds
and seas remaining below SCA criteria.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With a similar environment as the last few days, moderate to heavy
rainfall is possible in any showers or thunderstorms. Pwats are
still around 1.5-1.6 inches and storm motion is expected to be slow.
Coverage is expected to be less than the past few days, so the flood
threat is even more localized today. The WPC has outlined portions
of western CT and the Lower Hudson Valley in a marginal risk in the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Mainly minor hydrologic impacts will be possible this weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a southerly flow continuing and building seas, the rip current
risk today is high. The risk lowers to moderate on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...