000
FXUS61 KOKX 282005
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pushes through tonight, followed by weak high
pressure building across Thursday and Thursday night. The high
then builds offshore for the end of the week. A frontal system
approaches for the weekend, and stalls near the area into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will slowly pushes through the area tonight from west
to east. Some lingering shower and t-storm activity should wane
throughout the evening with loss of daytime heating. At the same
time the mid and upper level height fields will begin to gradually
rise as the trough begins deamplification. Skies should partially
clear tonight as drier air begins to gradually bleed in from the
west. The winds are expect to remain fairly light and be more out of
the NW. The main question tonight deals with how much smoke and
lower air quality with respect to particulate matter can start to
push in from the west. The models have not been handling this very
well with poor initiations with the various model runs. Have
accounted for a slight reduction in visibility in the grids for
western portion of the CWA, and took more of the experimental RRFS
and Canadian RAQDPS approach with the near sfc smoke forecast in
comparison to the operational HRRR.
Lows tonight will remain near seasonable levels as temps eventually
level off primarily in the 60s, with middle and upper 60s across the
NYC and NE NJ metro areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance continues to show slow height rises and continued
deamplification of the mid and upper level trough that has been in
place. A weak high gradually works in throughout the day from the
west. BUFKIT soundings indicate enough of a cap above 5 kft to
likely preclude any convective development and no trigger to lift
air above this CAP in any meaningful way. The limit to convection
should be some moderately building cu along sea breeze boundaries
towards late morning and early afternoon as the synoptic flow will
remain rather weak. Thus, sea breezes form and push inland during
the afternoon. With partly to mostly sunny skies look for
temperatures to reach seasonable levels, with mainly lower and
middle 80s.
For Thursday night with weak high pressure overhead look for partly
cloud to mostly clear skies with dry conditions. The winds will be
light to calm with seasonable temperatures once again. Lows should
range from lower 60s across much of the interior, and middle and
upper 60s closer to the coast and across the metro areas.
With respect to air quality and any potential near surface smoke, as
mentioned in the previous section have stuck close to RRFS and
Canadian RAQDPS guidance. This translates to visibilities down to
around 5 to 6 sm further west, with little noticeable or discernible
reduction in visibility further east through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models were in fairly good agreement in the extended, so the NBM
was followed.
On Fri, high pres builds offshore with return flow setting up.
Likely an enhanced sea breeze on the south coast by the end of the
day. Dry in the mid lvls, and with the next significant wave still
progged to be over wrn PA, a dry day has been fcst.
Flow aloft becomes generally wly Fri ngt into at least Mon. Remnant
convectively induced waves will provide periodic triggers and
therefore chances for shwrs and tstms thru the period. In addition,
a frontal boundary may stall invof the area Sun and Mon. This would
serve as an additional focus for shwrs and tstms, and allow for some
stronger storms as well. Placement of the front is currently
progged to set up just north of the area thru the period, keeping
the cwa in the warm sector, and areas closest to the boundary in a
region of better shear. Still too far out to have high confidence
however.
Upr low currently over the wrn conus may impact the region for the
4th. Low confidence wrt timing this far out, but the ECMWF is faster
than the GFS, getting the remnant upr feature here by the end of
Mon. The GFS timing is for Tue however.
Some diurnal convection possible behind the feature on Wed with
relatively lower heights and July sun.
The NBM was used for temps thru the period. If the front remains
north of the area for the beginning of the week, some of the usually
hotter areas could end up around 90 for highs by Mon and Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across this evening and will continue to move
east of the area through the rest of the TAF period with high
pressure to the west of the area.
There is some lingering MVFR stratus across KGON with otherwise
mainly VFR conditions across the area outside of any showers and
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms towards the
latter half of this afternoon into early this evening could
result in temporary MVFR to possibly very brief IFR conditions.
Tonight into Thursday, some residual smoke and haze is not
expected to significantly reduce visibilities, just have 6sm and
haze to conclude TAFs near and northwest of NYC terminals.
The winds will become more W-SW near 10 kts on average this
afternoon, decreasing to less than 10 kts tonight into Thursday.
The wind direction becomes more NW tonight and then will
transition Thursday to more sea breezes for coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of showers and thunderstorms could be 1-2 hours off from
TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon - Thursday night: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely, mainly in the afternoons and
evenings. Chance of a TSTM in the afternoons and evenings.
Mostly VFR, but MVFR/IFR possible in showers and storms.
Monday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas are expected to gradually lower from west to east tonight
with small craft conditions coming to an end by midnight for the
western most ocean waters, and the early morning further east.
Weak high pressure will provide a light to non- existent pressure
gradient leading to a light wind regime into Thursday. Seas will
subside closer to 4 ft on average through Thursday night. Winds
and seas are generally expected to remain blw sca lvls Fri- Mon.
There will be chances for tstms by Sun and Mon, which could
result in locally hazardous conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Drier air gradually works in tonight into Thursday. This should
bring the localized heavy rain threat to an end for late this
week. At this time no widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
Fri- Tue.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a southerly flow continuing and building seas, the rip current
risk today is high. The risk lowers to moderate on Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...