000
FXUS61 KOKX 011449
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches today and passes on Sunday. A frontal
system tracks thru the region on Monday. Weak high pressure
starts to build back into the region on Tuesday and will remain
over the area Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaches
towards the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed to
reflect current conditions.
More smoke and fog this mrng, giving way to just smoke and haze
for the rest of the day. A light sly flow will keep it cooler
at the south coasts. Dry wx expected with a lack of forcing and
instability.
An SPS covers the fog this mrng, with the most dense fog across
ern CT.
The NBM with local adjustments was used for temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing theta-e tngt with a weak lljet developing late. This
would tend to support the development of shwrs and potentially
an embedded elevated tstm overnight. The NAM has been pretty
consistent over the last few runs, and despite the GFS and ECMWF
being drier, tended the fcst towards the NAM in this
convective regime. Confidence on the low/mdt side however due to
the model discrepancy, as well as the convective complex
tracking thru the OH Valley which could have ripple effects
upstream.
The models are in good agreement that there will be energy
embedded in the swly flow aloft as well as some elevated
instability for Sun. Cat pops per the NBM, although the numbers
were limited to 76 percent in order to account for some
uncertainty wrt timing and coverage. Pwats rise to around 2
inches, so some locally hvy rain is possible. The big question
is whether areas break out and allow for instability to build
late in the day supporting a round of hvy tstms. Although
confidence is low, the NAM is hinting at this potential for late
aftn into the eve.
Upr lvl low approaches on Mon. There could be some big tstms
with this feature, particularly invof the stationary front to
the north. This sys will need to be watched as the cwa will be
in the warm sector, but right now the modeling on the exact
timing, placement, and orientation of the upr low/trof
needs to be shored up.
With a swly flow setting up on Mon, it should be pretty hot with
some 20C air at h85. Went with the NBM, but if the pattern
holds, temps should verify a little hotter with some 90s likely
especially in the normally warmer swrn spots.
The upr low and associated frontal sys is currently progged to
pass thru Mon ngt. Shwrs and tstms associated with the sys
should therefore wind down from W to E thru the ngt, assuming
the modeling verifies.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No overall big changes in the long term period and stuck fairly
close to the NBM/previous forecast.
On Tuesday, the cold front continues to move further offshore as
weak high pressure starts to build in from the west. An upper level
shortwave will pass north of the region during the afternoon, which
could set off some additional showers and/or thunderstorms. Any
activity right now looks to remain focused across portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. Highs on Tuesday will climb
into the middle and upper 80s across the entire CWA.
Weak high pressure then moves closer to the area for Wednesday and
Thursday with mainly dry and warm conditions. Right now, both days
look to be the warmest of the week with highs in the middle to upper
80s, with a few lower 90s possible across the interior. While it
should remain mostly dry through this period, there will be a chance
each afternoon for some afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.
The week ends with unsettled weather returning with the approach of
an upper level trough and associated cold front. POPs gradually
increase on Friday and will continue into at least the first half of
the weekend. There are some timing differences with the global
models on the timing of this feature and it is possible that Friday
could remain a bit drier than currently forecast. So there does
remain a little bit of uncertainty in this period. Temperatures
both days will be in the 80s, with Saturday slightly cooler than
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will slowly move east today.
VFR. Fog and low stratus has mixed out at the coastal terminals
leaving just some restrictions to haze from the smoke. Vsbys
have improved at all terminals except KGON to >6SM. However,
looking upstream there are still some 4-5SM vsbys reported
across parts of NW NJ and NE PA, so have added TEMPOS for NYC
and western terminals into the afternoon for this possibility of
MVFR.
Light SE-S flow will increase again to at least 5-10 kt, and to
around/just over 10 kt at KJFK/KLGA during the afternoon.
Winds become fairly light with increasing clouds and the chance
of showers and thunderstorms after 06z Sunday. Will include
Prob30s from 08-14z to cover the thunder threat for now.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, KEWR haze potential forecast is
RED...which implies slant range visibility less than 4sm outside of
cloud.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD possible to address flight cat changes due to haze/smoke.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Showers possible and chance of tstms. Brief MVFR
likely, IFR possible. It is likely we see 2 rounds of storms on
Sunday, the first round in the morning, then a break with the
second round later in the afternoon. Timing remains a bit
uncertain with the second round of storms, but its appears to be
after 20z.
Monday and Tuesday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers/tstms,
otherwise VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas area expected to remain blw sca lvls thru the
weekend. Conditions could approach sca lvls on Mon,
particularly on the ocean with building seas.
With a weak pressure gradient is expected to keep conditions
below small craft advisory levels Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Shwrs and a few tstms are expected on Sun, with additional shwrs
and tstms expected on Mon. There is a chance for some localized
minor flooding in the heaviest activity.
No hydrologic issues are expected Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected thru Sunday.
With astronomical tides increasing this weekend with the
approach of a full moon on Monday, minor coastal flooding looks
possible to likely with the evening high tide cycles tonight
thru Monday. A statement has been issued for srn Nassau for this
eve. Otherwise, areas most likely to be affected are the south
shore bays of Nassau, Queens and Brooklyn, Staten Island, and
Southern Fairfield / Westchester Counties.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...